Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone 201703 : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2016-2017 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone 201703 Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20170126 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 122.4E TO 18.7S 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 121.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 126.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 121.9E, APPROXIMATELY
540 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261032Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS
SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING OVER LAND TOWARDS THE WEST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 31 DEGREES CELSIUS,
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 KNOTS), AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
GLOBAL MODALS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
271400Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170127 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 18.7S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.5S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.2S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.7S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.3S 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.9S 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 118.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270639Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON ABOM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN
THE REGION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF
35 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON LOCAL OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS
REACHING 34 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 31
CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC 03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER AUSTRALIA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S
WILL HAVE A BRIEF WINDOW TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT DIFFLUENCE. BEYOND TAU 24,
EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL HINDER TC 03S'S ABILITY
TO SUSTAIN ITSELF. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE SYSTEM
PROGRESSES WESTWARD AND TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY
TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
EACH OTHER, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170127 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 117.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 117.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.6S 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 20.1S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.4S 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.7S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.6S 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 116.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 271111Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM SHOWING IMPROVEMENT OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ABOM RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35 KNOTS) AND A LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATION
FROM BEDOUT ISLAND SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE
REGION ARE CURRENTLY VERY FAVORABLE NEAR 31 CELSIUS. CURRENTLY TC
03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER AUSTRALIA, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
GUIDE THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 03S WILL HAVE A
BRIEF WINDOW TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS
CONDITIONS ALOFT SUPPORT DIFFLUENCE. BEYOND TAU 24, EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND INCREASED SHEAR WILL HINDER TC 03S'S ABILITY TO SUSTAIN
ITSELF. SSTS WILL ALSO DECREASE DRASTICALLY AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
WESTWARD AND TC 03S WILL FULLY DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EACH
OTHER, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170127 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.5S 116.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 116.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.3S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.6S 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.8S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.2S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 22.6S 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 115.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS AN
IMPRESSIVE SPIRAL BANDING SIGNATURE AND DAMPIER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A TIGHTENING CORE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE ABOVE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS AND
WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM DAMPIER REACHING 37 KNOTS. TC 03S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IS A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE WITH A DEEP CORE OF MOISTURE SUPPORTED BY LOW (5-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY HINDRANCE AT THIS TIME IS LAND
INTERACTION DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COASTLINE. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO 50 KNOTS AS THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FIGHT THE LAND INTERACTION. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170128 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 20.4S 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.1S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.2S 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.3S 109.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.7S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 23.1S 104.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 114.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD
STRUCTURE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER.
CONVECTIVE BANDING IS STILL PRESENT ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER, A 272226Z CORIOLIS 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW REFLECTIVITY CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER
CIRCULATION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE LEARMONTH RADAR LOOP.
OBSERVATIONS FROM BARROW ISLAND REACHED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
42 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE PASSED WITHIN 30NM TO THE NORTH, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW IS T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD, PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST
AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A DEEP CORE OF MOISTURE
SUPPORTED BY LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY
HINDRANCE AT THIS TIME IS THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COASTLINE. THIS COULD ALSO BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL VORTICIES. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS UNDER THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT; HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED DUE
TO THE LAND INTERACTION. BEYOND TAU 36, VWS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS. THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO A STEADY
WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND
290300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170128 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 113.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.6S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.6S 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.8S 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.2S 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 22.3S 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 112.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO A
DEFINED CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY FROM LEARMONTH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND ALSO REFLECTS A GENERAL WEAKENING
OF ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA (BARROW ISLAND AND ONSLOW AIRPORT)
HAVE ABATED AND NOW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED (10-MINUTE
AVERAGE). LEARMONTH WINDS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED. DESPITE THE DECREASED ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY,
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO
DECREASING SST (25 TO 26C) AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, MORE STABLE
AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170128 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 111.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.2S 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.4S 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.7S 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.2S 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 111.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 188 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281142Z NOAA-18 89GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO DECREASING SST (25 TO
26C) AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, MORE STABLE AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z,
290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170128 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 110.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 110.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.1S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2S 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 20.8S 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 21.6S 103.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 109.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 252 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS EVIDENT IN A 281416Z
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WHICH HAS
STARTED TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH (25-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), COMBINED WITH UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WANING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). TC 03S REMAINS ON
A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA. THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER
WEST DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR AND HIGH VWS. THESE FACTORS
WILL LEAD TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z AND 292100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170129 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 19.3S 109.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 109.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.3S 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 109.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN A EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. A
290126Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAPIDLY WEAKENING LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT DATA. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
(COOLER SST, AND ENTRAINMENT OF STABLE, COOLER AIR). THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 12
FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_201703_jtwc_advisories.htm
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