WTPS32 PGTW 20170221 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 166.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 166.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 21.8S 162.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 24.2S 158.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 26.9S 154.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 165.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST
OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 202046Z METOP-
B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 202045Z ASCAT
IMAGE REVEALS AN OBLONG CIRCULATION WITH NUMEROUS 35 KNOT WINDS AND
SOME ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION,
WHICH SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. DESPITE
SOME SUBTROPICAL FORCING ON THE SYSTEM, THE ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS APPROXIMATELY 60NM, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM SST 27-28C AND
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DEGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST
AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC 07P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
WITHIN THE ENHANCED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE DEEP TROUGH AND
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE TIGHTLY-GROUPED NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACKERS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P
(ALFRED) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170221 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 21.8S 162.3W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 162.3W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 24.2S 158.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 27.2S 154.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 30.1S 150.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S 161.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (BART), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 762 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN A 210822Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWS AN ASYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD WITH THE BULK OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY WITH LIGHTER WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE EIR LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW REFLECTIVITY BANDING IN A 211036Z GPM 89GHZ
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 40 KNOT WINDS SEEN IN
THE ASCAT PASS WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER END OF AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T3.0 (30-45 KNOTS). TC BART IS
LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LOW TO MODERATE VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM SST 27-28C AND STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH
INCREASING VWS, COOLER SST AND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION, WHICH WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36. TC 07P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE ENHANCED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE
DEEP TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING TO IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20170222 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220000Z --- NEAR 25.3S 156.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 37 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S 156.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 28.5S 152.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 26.1S 155.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (BART), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 617 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 37
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND NFFN. THE INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM NFFN AND PGTW AND A PARTIAL 211932Z ASCAT PASS. TC 07P IS
TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN EXTENSION
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THE NORTHEAST AND A DEEP-LAYERED MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION IS BECOMING SHALLOW AS
THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY TAU
12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS
14 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_bart_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]