Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone CALEB : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2016-2017 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone CALEB Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 20170323 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 100.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 100.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.4S 101.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.3S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 102.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.2S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.3S 101.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.1S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.8S 99.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 100.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
EAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION, WITH DEEP
FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
BASED ON A 230309Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LLCC WITH EVIDENT 40 KNOT BARBS ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW
SITUATION WITH HIGH DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL, HOWEVER THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW
IS DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST. THE EASTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ALLOWING FOR TC CALEB TO INTENSIFY TO 45 KNOTS, BUT THE HIGH
WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. CURRENTLY A MID TO LOW LEVEL
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) IS DRIVING THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. BY TAU 36 ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL START
TO BUILD, COMPETING WITH THE NER PLACING TC CALEB INTO A QUASI-
STATIONARY TRACK. BY TAU 72 THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL ASSUME STEERING,
DRIVING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS, HOWEVER
SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND
TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST. OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170323 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 101.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 101.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 14.4S 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 14.8S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.1S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.3S 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.4S 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 101.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AS THE ASSOCIATED
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND REMAINS DISPLACED WESTWARD OF A
BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH
END OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK FIXES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED
STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE WAYWARD
CONVECTION. TC 12S IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ISLAND OF JAVA,
INDONESIA. INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FAVOR A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, THE STRONG VWS
WILL EVENTUALLY PREVAIL AND ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL IS WIDELY SPREAD AFTER TAU 12,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
240900Z AND 242100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170324 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 101.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 101.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 15.0S 101.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.2S 101.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.4S 101.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 101.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM THAT HAS STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS
WITH LIMITED FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE WEST
LEAVING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), WHICH HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LOWER THAN PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETRY DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT AS THE EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT IS STILL A DOMINANT FEATURE INCREASING THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SSTS CURRENTLY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT NEAR 28 CELSIUS, BUT
DECREASE RAPIDLY BEYOND 15 DEGREES SOUTH. CURRENTLY TC CALEB IS
TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO-LOW-LEVEL NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER JAVA. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL ASSUME A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK BEYOND
TAU 24 AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SSTS DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, HOWEVER, GFS AND HWRF SHOW
THE SYSTEM TURNING ABRUPTLY TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT
ALSO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 242100Z AND 250900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170324 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 100.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 100.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 15.3S 100.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.6S 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.8S 100.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.8S 99.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.7S 98.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.7S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.9S 96.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 100.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241831Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 241520Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS, ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 - T3.0, BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS AND THE
LOW REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE IN THE GPM IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AND WILL SUSTAIN THE PERSISTENT
CONVECTION. TC CALEB IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.
BEYOND TAU 24, A BUILDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL PROVIDE AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SUPPORTING A SHORT
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING A
WEAKENING TREND UNTIL COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT AFTER TAU 24 WITH GFS
AND HWRF TAKING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE TRACKS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
FORECAST. DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170325 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 100.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 100.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 15.8S 99.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.1S 99.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.2S 98.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.2S 97.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.0S 96.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.8S 96.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.6S 95.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 99.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 898 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250228Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A COMPACT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY CURVED SHALLOW BANDING,
AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS DATA
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS ABOVE AGENCY DVORAKS BUT
SUPPORTED BY EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND RECENT SATCON/ADT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 40-45 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). WARM SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO PERMIT THE MAINTENANCE OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. TC CALEB IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FROM TAU 24
THROUGH TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING INTO AN AREA WITH
REDUCED VWS ALLOWING FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48,
VWS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WHILE OUTFLOW CHANNELS BECOME CUT-OFF,
LEADING TO THE EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF TC CALEB, HOWEVER THE WESTWARD TRACK BY
THE ECMWF AND UKMET SEEM TO MAKE THE MOST SENSE AT THIS POINT BASED
ON RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY. DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 99.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 99.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 16.5S 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.6S 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.7S 97.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.8S 96.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 16.9S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 99.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH DRY AIR ENTERING THE SYSTEM ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE. THIS DATA SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS
ABOVE AGENCY DVORAKS BUT IS SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER SATCON INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAKENING
OUTFLOW ON BOTH THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WANING CONVECTION. THE STORM IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALONG WITH
MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27C) IN THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FLARING CONVECTION. AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO
PULL IN DRY AIR ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE AND THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS
BREAK DOWN, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BEYOND TAU 24. TC
CALEB IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS TO THE STORM TRACK LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
251800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170326 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 99.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 99.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 16.0S 98.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.0S 97.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.0S 96.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.1S 95.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.7S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 99.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 919 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 260656Z GPM 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY
COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, TIGHTLY CURVED SHALLOW
BANDING, AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE ABOVE MENTIONED
IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
AT THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND KNES, RANGING FROM T1.5-2.0 (25 TO 40 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NOW MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH COOLER (27C) SSTS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED OUTFLOW. TC 12S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL BE
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DEGRADE, THE SYSTEM
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12S IS
FORECAST TO ACHIEVE FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK HAS BEEN PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170326 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 15.8S 98.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 98.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.7S 97.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.6S 96.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.6S 95.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.8S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 98.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTHEAST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROADENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
SHALLOW BANDING, AND DISSIPATING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
SUPPORTED BY THE INFRARED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE UNRAVELLING OF
THE LLCC STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27C) AND NO
ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC CALEB IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE STEERING INFLUENCE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND TC 12S IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY DISSIPATED
BY TAU 24. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT SHIFT
TO THE NORTH LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (CALEB) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 97.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 97.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.4S 96.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 97.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (CALEB), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECAYING,
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF ANY PERSISTENT
CONVECTION, AND SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A PARTIAL 270328Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS WITH ISOLATED 35 KNOT WINDS
RELEGATED TO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND FULL
DISSIPATION OF TC CALEB SYSTEM IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 12
FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_caleb_jtwc_advisories.htm
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