Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2016-2017 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE Track Map and Data |
WTPS22 PGTW 20170324 01:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 151.7E TO 17.9S 150.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 151.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.2S 151.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232049Z MHS NOAA-18 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS SHOW CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS LIKELY WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKS
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. BASED ON IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250130Z.
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170324 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240121ZMAR2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 152.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 152.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.9S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.5S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.9S 150.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1S 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.6S 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.1S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.3S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 152.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 356 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SYSTEM THAT IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A BROAD BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CIRCULATION IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
SCATTEROMETRY AND THE WILLIS ISLAND RADAR LOOP. DESPITE MULTIPLE
IMAGERY SOURCES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION IS FAIR DUE
TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD
HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON A
PREVIOUS 241156Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 40KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30 C) AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOWS
STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND A STRONG VORTICITY SIGNATURE. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE EAST TOWARD A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DURING
THIS PERIOD, EXPECT A SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARDS, THE STORM WILL TURN TO THE
WEST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST ALLOWING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL
JUST BEFORE TAU 72. THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR NEAR TAU 60. AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
THE PAST 48 HOURS SHOWED THE SYSTEM TRAVELING FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE
MAKING THE WESTWARD WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN. THE SHIFT IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE SLOWED ARRIVAL OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
CONTINUAL SHIFT IN THE TAU AT WHICH THE STORM WILL TURN WEST, THE
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF THE TRACK LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z. THIS CANCELS AND
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS22 PGTW 240130).//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170325 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 152.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 152.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.1S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.6S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.9S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.2S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.9S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.8S 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 22.0S 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 152.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
250558Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, AND A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ON
THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.0 (45 TO 55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE
RAPIDLY IMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC DEBBIE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS BETWEEN A NER TO THE EAST AND A STR TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE NER WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT BEGINS TO BUILD AND
MIGRATE WESTWARD, CAUSING TC DEBBIE TO CHANGE COURSE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS SSTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE ON
THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z AND 260900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170325 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 151.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 151.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 18.2S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.6S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0S 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.4S 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.1S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.3S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 151.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
251711Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EYE VISIBLE ON THE MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) BASED ON THE
PREVIOUS SATCON VALUE OF 64 KTS AND THE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW, BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD, AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ALONG A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND HAS
BEGUN TO SHIFT DIRECTION TO THE WEST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
AUSTRALIA WILL REMAIN AS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAIN
FAVORABLE. PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR JUST PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, WHICH WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON
THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z AND 262100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170326 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 151.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 151.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.6S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.5S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.0S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 21.6S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170326 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.6S 150.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 150.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.0S 149.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.6S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.1S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.8S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 150.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED STORM WITH FLARING CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 261500Z GCOMW1 36GHZ IMAGE REVEALS THAT
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T4.0 (65KTS) AND THE LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 68 KNOTS. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WITH LESS ORGANIZED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE FROM
CONTINENTAL AUSTRALIA, EVIDENT IN TOTAL PERCEPTIBLE WATER LOOPS,
WHICH HAS SLOWED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. TC DEBBIE IS
CONTINUING TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND A RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. THESE TWO RIDGES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST AS IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24,
AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE HOWEVER, AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH LAND THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST
TRACK LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z AND 272100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170327 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 20.0S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.6S 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.4S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.4S 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 150.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A 16 NM
RAGGED EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
AGENCY DVORAKS OF T5.0 AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 90
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT, RADIAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SSTS.
TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC
DEBBIE MAKES LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, ALLOWING FOR STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO
ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170327 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 19.9S 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 20.5S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.2S 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.3S 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 20.1S 148.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 10 NM RAGGED EYE THAT IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE ON THE WESTERN SIDE AS THE SYSTEM IS NOW INTERACTING WITH THE
EASTERN SHORE OF QUEENSLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ALSO OBSERVABLE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM BOWEN, AUSTRALIA WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
100 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER ENVELOPE OF BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO
T6.0 (102 TO 115 KNOTS). SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NEARBY HAMILTON
ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 77 KNOTS WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 100
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY FAVORABLE WITH
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SSTS NEAR 28
CELSIUS ALLOWING FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CURRENTLY TC DEBBIE IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND
AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT-TERM TRACK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND
282100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20170328 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 20.4S 148.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 148.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.9S 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.7S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 148.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 108 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TOWNSVILLE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM
TOWNSVILLE INDICATES TC DEBBIE HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS MOVING
FURTHER INLAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DEDUCED FROM NEARBY
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT
INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_debbie_jtwc_advisories.htm
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