Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ENAWO : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2016-2017 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ENAWO Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20170302 19:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.6S 59.1E TO 13.5S 55.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030218Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.5S 58.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.4S
60.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 58.5E, APPROXIMATELY 605 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, A 020524Z ASCAT PASS, AND A 021437Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICT MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
INCREASING EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND FAVORABLY
LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
28C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DISTURBANCE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AND
CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
031930Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170303 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 56.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 56.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 13.3S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.9S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.3S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.8S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.8S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.8S 51.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.7S 50.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030506Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST PERIPHERIES. OVERALL, THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND A
030506Z ASCAT BULLS-EYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.0-2.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE-STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH
TEMPS OBSERVED NEAR 30C. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NETR TO THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO UNDERGO STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA WITH REDUCED VWS AND
EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. 09S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FOREWORD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A COMPETING UPPER-LEVEL STEERING
PATTERN, BETWEEN THE NETR TO THE EAST AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER TAU 36, THE NETR WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS THE STR
RETROGRADES TO THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL
POOR AGREEMENT ON THE COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN, WITH A
635 NM SPREAD IN THE TRACKERS AT TAU 120. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BASED ON THE CONSISTENCY OF
THESE TRACKERS OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS POOR AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z AND 040900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170303 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 56.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 56.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 13.6S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 13.9S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.1S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.5S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 15.1S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.3S 50.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 56.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 424 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES BUILDING CONVECTION WITH INCREASING SYMMETRY OVER
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 031739Z ASCAT
PASS REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CENTER SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND PROVIDES INITIAL WIND STRUCTURE
MEASUREMENTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND REPRESENTS THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION TREND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED VWS CONDITIONS, AS STORM MOTION HAS ALIGNED WITH
THE SHEAR VECTOR. 29-30 DEGREE SSTS ALSO SUPPORTS FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TC 09S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A
WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES ARE
RESULTING IN SLOW FORWARD MOTION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS
INDICATE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM; HOWEVER, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE. THE ECMWF MODEL IS FORECASTING A STRONG RIDGE TO TAKE
09S WESTWARD INTO MADAGASCAR; WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A WEAKER RIDGE SCENARIO, WITH ENAWO TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE, AND IN RESPONSE TO A POOL OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WATERS
OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, LAND
INTERACTION WILL BEGIN TO OFFSET FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED WESTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE INITIAL WEAK STEERING FLOW AND A PERSISTENT WESTWARD SHIFT IN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST DUE
TO THE LARGE SPREAD AMONG MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF.
ADDITIONALLY, THESE TRACK DIFFERENCES COULD RESULT IN A LARGE CHANGE
IN FORECAST INTENSITY, DUE TO IMPACT OF POSSIBLE LANDFALL TIMING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z AND 042100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170304 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 56.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 56.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.0S 56.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.2S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.5S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.9S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.0S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.6S 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.8S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 56.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM NORTH OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A NEAR-SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 040316Z GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
VERY CONDUCIVE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH COMPETING
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND DOMINATE AND SLOWLY STEER TC 09S
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MADAGASCAR, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER
TAU 72. AS VWS RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES, TC ENAWO IS
EXPECTED TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY
TAU 48. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR
WILL CAUSE RAPID DECAY. BY THE END OF FORECAST, THE TC WILL BE
REDUCED TO A 40-KNOT SYSTEM MOSTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH RUGGED
TERRAIN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TOWARDS MADAGASCAR WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF EVENTUAL WESTWARD MOTION. ECMWF IS NOTABLY THE
WESTWARD OUTLIER FAVORING A STRONG STR. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS AN
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z AND 050900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170304 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 14.1S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 14.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.4S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.8S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.1S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.6S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.8S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 56.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH INCREASING SPIRAL BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING EIR AND A PARTIAL 041534Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T4.0. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE
PRESENCE OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC ENAWO IS LOCATED ALONG A
GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTH
(25-30 KNOTS) AND WEAKER SHEAR TO THE SOUTH (10-15 KNOTS). SITUATED
BETWEEN TWO RIDGES, TC ENAWO HAS TEMPORARILY DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD,
BUT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO RESUME A STEADY TRACK TOWARD THE WEST
AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW BEGINS TO BE
INFLUENCED BY AN AMPLIFYING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRING SOMETIME BEFORE A
PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 110 KNOTS IS REACHED NEAR TAU 48. LANDFALL
IN MADAGASCAR IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING
OVER RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
WESTWARD, SO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE
WEST AS WELL. OVERALL, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LANDFALL IN
MADAGASCAR AND SUBSEQUENT RECURVATURE TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT STILL WITH
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z AND 052100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170305 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 56.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 56.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 13.7S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.0S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.6S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.3S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.8S 49.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 47.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.8S 47.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 13.5S 55.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUASI-SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING
TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW REFLECTIVITY CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE
050301Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES
OF T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH COMPETING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STR IS BEGINNING TO BUILD AND HAS NUDGED TC 09S WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON
THIS TRACK, ALBEIT FASTER, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 72. AS VWS
RELAXES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES, TC ENAWO IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS BY TAU 36.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE
RAPID DECAY. BY THE END OF FORECAST, THE TC WILL DISSIPATE INLAND
MOSTLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK TOWARDS
MADAGASCAR WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF EVENTUAL
LANDFALL. THERE IS AN OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z AND 060900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170305 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 55.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 55.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 14.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.7S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.3S 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.1S 49.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.3S 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 21.4S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.8S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 54.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN, WITH IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING AND THE FORMATION
OF AN EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING
EIR AND A 051541Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 90 KNOTS, BASED ON SATELLITE REPRESENTATION AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH EXCELLENT
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA REMAIN WARM (29-30C). TC ENAWO HAS RESUMED
A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN AROUND 48
HOURS, STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A RECURVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRIOR TO LANDFALL, TC ENAWO IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO 115 KNOTS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING
AFTER LANDFALL. ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TC ENAWO COULD RE-
EMERGE OVER WATER AS IT RECURVES INTO THE WESTERLIES, THERE IS A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT TC ENAWO WILL DISSIPATE OVER MADAGASCAR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170306 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 14.0S 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 14.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.1S 50.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9S 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.9S 48.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 20.6S 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 25.4S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 31.0S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
HIGHLY-SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP FEEDER BANDS SPIRALING TIGHTLY INTO
A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 060306Z 36GHZ GPM PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF T5.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS.
ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE VERY
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD MADAGASCAR
BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. TC ENAWO IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PEAKING AT 110 KNOTS. AFTERWARDS,
INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH MADAGASCAR WILL CAUSE RAPID
DECAY. BY TAU 72, REDUCED TO A 45-KNOT SYSTEM OVER LAND, TC 09S WILL
ROUND THE STR AND BEGIN TO RECURVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A
MOMENTARY PERIOD OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AS IT EXITS BACK INTO THE
SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. HOWEVER, COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO A 35-KNOT SYSTEM BY THE END OF
FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THERE IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT TC 09S WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170306 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 14.5S 52.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 52.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 15.1S 50.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.9S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 17.1S 48.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.7S 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.2S 46.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 52.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 396 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL DEFINED 25NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNEW OF T6.5
(127 KNOTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STORM IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE. CURRENT SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE 29-30C. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
SUGGEST POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR TC ENAWO PRIOR TO
THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS OF 125 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD MADAGASCAR UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER THE TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL THE STORM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTH AND EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO BOTH THE LOSS OF
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
MADAGASCAR. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (BLANCHE) FOR FINAL WARNING (WTXS32
PGTW).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20170307 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 49.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 49.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.5S 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.1S 47.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 21.1S 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 49.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 459 NM
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING CONTINUING TO SPIRAL INTO A DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER INLAND
OVER MADAGASCAR. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY
ERODE DUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 09S WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE
TERRAIN. THE REMNANT VORTEX SIGNATURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE PASSING SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170310 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 26.2S 46.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.2S 46.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 28.6S 47.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 31.2S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 34.1S 45.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 39.2S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 47.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM
SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA
SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 09S (ENAWO), THEREFORE JTWC HAS
RESUMED WARNINGS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY INDICATES
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REEMERGED OVER WATER AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. THERMAL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE A 2.0
DEG WARM ANOMALY AT 10KM, THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION AND THE SYSTEM LIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS,
SUPPORTING THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
VISIBLE IN THE ANIMATED IMAGERY. THERE ARE NO RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES WITH THE LLCC OVER WATER TO SUPPORT THE POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY SET AT 45 KNOTS IS ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM JTWC, AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN
THE AREA AND A COMBINATION OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN 1800Z-1900Z
INDICATING A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER, WITH SOME 45 KNOT BARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
STRONG DIVERGENT FLOW OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, SUPPORTING A VERY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES
ARE LOW (10-15 KNOTS) DIRECTLY OVER TC 09S, WITH A VERY TIGHT
GRADIENT TO THE SOUTH, WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL
AT 26-27 DEG C. TC ENAWO WILL CONTINUE MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS,
BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAP INTO
THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARMER WATERS. THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 24 AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DUE TO THE REGENERATION OF THE
SYSTEM, THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, BUT WHAT
IS AVAILABLE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE TRACK. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20170310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 28.0S 49.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 28.0S 49.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 30.6S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 28.7S 49.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (ENAWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 557 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED AND THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS COLLAPSED AND DISPERSED DUE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 101200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_enawo_jtwc_advisories.htm
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