Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone YVETTE : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2016-2017 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20161219 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 16.0S 115.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190830Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 115.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 115.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY
326 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. A 190657Z SSMI 85 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS MULTIPLE
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT
DEFINED CENTER. A 190118Z ASCAT PASS DISPLAYED A BAND OF 25-30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND AN IMPROVING POLEWARD CHANNEL INTO
THE WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND SST 29-30C. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161219 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.1S 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.7S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.5S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 15.6S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.8S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.7S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.1S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 113.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 372 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A CLUSTER OF AGENCY
POSITION FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND ABRF, AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A RECENT ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S IS IN A
NARROW ZONE OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH ROBUST DUAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA, AT 30
CELSIUS, ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) AS AN
APPROACHING CYCLONE (90S) FROM THE EAST WILL IMPEDE STORM MOTION DUE
TO BINARY INTERACTION (BI). AFTER TAU 72, WHEN 90S MOVES OUT OF THE
WAY AND INLAND INTO WESTERN AUSTRALIA, TC 02S WILL TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ASSUMES STEERING. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF PORT HEADLAND. DUE TO THE
BI AND CONSTRAINED VWS ENVIRONMENT, THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT A MERE 45 KNOTS DURING THE QS
PHASE. AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
COMPLEX STORM MOTION WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST TRACK AND VARIANCES IN THE TIMING. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200900Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161220 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 114.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 114.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.1S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.9S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.8S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 13.8S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.0S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.6S 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.0S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 114.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
200512Z AMSR2 IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED YET WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY SHALLOW AND FRAGMENTED
BANDS OF CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE UPPER ENVELOPE OF CURRENT
INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 (30 TO 35
KNOTS). CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOW FAVORABLE SSTS IN THE
RANGE OF 28 TO 29 CELSIUS BUT MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS AS THE
DOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW IS CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.
CURRENTLY TC 02S IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT MEANDERING TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE QUASI-STATIONARY AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. A SEPARATE DISTURBANCE (90S) IS
DEVELOPING JUST NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA AND IS EXPECTED TO
PASS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 02S BEFORE THE NER FULLY ESTABLISHES ITSELF,
AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION IS POSSIBLE FURTHER COMPLICATING TRACK
SCENARIOS. AROUND TAU 72 THE NER WILL STEER TC 02S TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK POSSIBILITIES OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU 72 THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT
ON AN ACCELERATED TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD BUT A DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS. DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161220 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 113.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 113.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 14.8S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.8S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.6S 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.6S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.0S 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.7S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.6S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 113.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHWEST OF
PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) BUT HAS MAINTAINED ITS
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASE ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 201416 ASCAT PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02S HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE
(15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, DUAL OUTFLOW REMAIN
IN PLACE AND PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN QS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO BINARY
INTERACTION (BI) WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST
(90S). AFTERWARDS, TC 02S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER
90S MAKES LANDFALL SOUTHWARD AND OPENS DISTANCE FROM TC 02S. DUE TO
THE VWS AND BI, TC 02S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY,
PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS DURING THE QS PHASE. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE
LANDFALL PRIOR TO TAU 120 THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE QS PHASE AND
EVENTUAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH SOME SPREAD IN TRAJECTORY AND
VARIANCE IN THE TIMING OF THE QS PHASE. DUE TO THESE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161221 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (TWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 114.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 114.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.1S 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0S 114.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.0S 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.1S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.9S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.4S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.4S 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 114.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM NORTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SYSTEM WITH INCREASED CONVECTION AND IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 210513Z AMSU
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 40
KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0
(35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE BEING OFFSET BY SOME PRESSURE FROM THE PREDOMINANT
EASTERLY FLOW. CURRENTLY TC YVETTE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT
MEANDERING IN A QUASI-STATIONARY FASHION. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. BY TAU 48 A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
FROM THE NORTHEAST CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE. LANDFALL IN EXPECTED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA
BEFORE TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE EARLY TAUS WHILE THERE IS POOR STEERING. THE SHIFT SOUTHEAST IS
SEEN IN EACH OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BUT THERE IS A DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION WHEN THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z AND 220900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161221 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 114.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 114.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.1S 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.4S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.3S 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.4S 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.4S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.5S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 114.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (YVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 493 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED JUST WEST OF A
CONSOLIDATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A 211724Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER WITH
DEEP CURVED CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINING AT T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO
MODERATE TO HIGH (25-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). TC 02S
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TO THE EAST AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE NER STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM
WILL FURTHER ACCELERATE AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO HIGH VWS
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. JUST AFTER TAU 96, TC YVETTE WILL
MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AS A WEAK
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND.
AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN
AS VWS DROPS BELOW 20 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
IMPROVE AS THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES LESS COMPLEX; HOWEVER, UNTIL
THE NER FULLY ESTABLISHES, CONTINUED QS MOTION IS POSSIBLE. DUE TO
THE STEERING UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161222 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.2S 114.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 114.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.1S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.4S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.6S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.8S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 18.7S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.5S 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 23.3S 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 114.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (YVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 441 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. A 220500Z GCOM-W1 36GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS THE BULK OF THE
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH SHALLOW
BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER.
OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS
STEADY AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW / APRF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). TC 02S REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH TAU
12 THEN SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 02S
WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
NER AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72. TC YVETTE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS VWS
ABATES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO POSITIONING
UNCERTAINTY AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161222 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 14.8S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.5S 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.4S 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.7S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.2S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 22.4S 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 114.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (YVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221430Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
FOUND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IN RESPONSE, THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CURRENT
INTENSITY FIXES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45 KNOTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL TO POOR BASED ON HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING THE WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. TC 02S IS
DRIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU
24, TC 02S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48.
TC YVETTE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BUT MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS VWS
ABATES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO POSITIONING
UNCERTAINTY AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z AND 232100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161223 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 14.7S 116.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 116.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 15.4S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 16.5S 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.8S 120.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 19.3S 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 21.8S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 116.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (YVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED EAST OF ISOLATED,
FLARING CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE MSI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS). TC YVETTE WILL CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE DUE TO PERSISTENT
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT MAY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS VWS ABATES. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST. TC YVETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 48 AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
230600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20161223 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (YVETTE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 14.8S 117.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 117.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.8S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 118.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (YVETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED AND RAGGED AS
THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS SHEARED FURTHER WEST. AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES INDICATE TC 02S IS REDUCED TO A 30-KNOT SYSTEM, BELOW THE
JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF STRONG (30-40 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE DUE TO THE HIGH VWS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_yvette_jtwc_advisories.htm
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