Updated: 17 June 2020
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WTXS21 PGTW 050800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1S 64.5E TO 10.1S 55.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.1S 63.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.5S 68.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 63.6E, APPROXIMATELY 530
NM WEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC COVERED
BY PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A 050216Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 050433Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND PRIMARILY 25-30 KNOT WINDS
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060800Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050751ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 8.8S 60.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8S 60.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 9.5S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.1S 57.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.7S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.5S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.9S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 14.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 15.8S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 60.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM WEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER CONVECTIVE
BANDING TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING A 052318Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 03S IS
TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE TC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, ACHIEVING A NEARLY SOUTHWARD TRACK BY TAU 120.
THROUGH TAU 72, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, COOLER SST AND
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 50 KNOTS BY
TAU 120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HWRF MODEL
BECAUSE THAT MODEL HAS A FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH HAS A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES
AROUND THE STR, SIMILAR TO THE HWRF, ECMWF, AND UKMET MODELS. THE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THE TC COULD TURN EQUATORWARD OR WESTWARD BUT
THERE IS NOT ANOTHER ATTRACTOR AMONG THE OTHER SOLUTIONS. BASED ON
THE LARGE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
060000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND
070300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 050800).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 060900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 9.2S 60.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 60.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 9.7S 58.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 11.0S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.9S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.9S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.5S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.9S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 59.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 060600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z AND 070900Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: FIXED WARNING TIMES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 9.6S 59.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6S 59.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 10.2S 57.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.8S 56.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.5S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 12.2S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.7S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.2S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.5S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 58.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 641 NM NORTH OF
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
REMAINS CONCENTRATED SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE TO A DEFINED LOW BRIGHTNESS LLC FEATURE IN THE
060952Z GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE CONVECTION. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 28-29 CELSIUS ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO 75 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48. AFTERWARD, VWS
WILL INCREASE TO VERY HIGH VALUES (GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS). THIS, IN
ADDITION TO COOLING SSTS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING.
BY TAU 120, TC 03S WILL BE REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CTCX THE NOTABLE
RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. BY TAU 120, THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS DIVERGE
INTO DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS WITH THE WIDEST SPREAD AT OVER 330 NM. THIS
VERY ERRATIC PATTERN IS AN INDICATION OF DRASTIC WEAKENING. IN VIEW
OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 9.8S 58.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8S 58.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 10.3S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.9S 55.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.7S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.3S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.8S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.1S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 13.4S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 58.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 061751Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC AND
THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST). TC 03S IS TRACKING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE STR WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER STR TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
INFLUENCE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 48, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY
TO 80 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, COOL SST, HIGH VWS, AND DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE TC 03S TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY THROUGH 72 THEN MORE
RAPIDLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72 BUT SPREAD GETS LARGE AS THE STR TO THE SOUTHWEST
COMPETES TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE
PREDICTING A SLOW DRIFT POLEWARD AS THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE. BASED
ON TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES HAVING SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON TC 03S,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 57.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 57.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 10.4S 56.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.0S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.6S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.9S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 13.3S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 57.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH OF AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55
KNOTS). THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION
WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC
03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE INFLUENCE OF AN STR
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE ALONG-TRACK SPEED TO SLOW
CONSIDERABLY AND DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE IS
FORECASTED TO WEAKEN, SLOWLY AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
BUT BELOW THE HWRF MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THE MEMBERS REACT DIFFERENTLY
TO THE CHANGING STEERING INFLUENCES AND THE TRACKS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRACK TRENDS WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY, PARTICULARLY AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z,
072100Z AND 080300Z.//
========================================================================WTXS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 10.2S 56.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S 56.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 10.7S 55.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4S 54.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.7S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.2S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.7S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 13.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.9S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 56.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND DEVELOPED
A 15-NM RAGGED EYE. RAIN BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE COMPACT AND WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING TOWARD MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC 03S IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE IN A COL AS A
SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST COMPETES FOR STEERING. COINCIDENTALLY,
VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS AND SSTS WILL COOL DOWN TO 26
CELSIUS AND CAUSE GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. BY
TAU 120, TC ALCIDE WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN WIDE DISARRAY SPREADING TO OVER 320 NM BY TAU
120, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 10.4S 56.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 56.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 11.0S 54.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.7S 54.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.5S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.2S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.8S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 55.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND MAINTAINED
A SMALLER 10-NM RAGGED EYE. COMPACT RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 071144Z SSMIS PASS THAT
STACKED UP VERTICALLY TO THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING TOWARD MADAGASCAR ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 36, TC 03S
IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE AS IT ENTERS A
COL BETWEEN THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY STR TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT
WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING. AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME, VWS WILL INCREASE
TO OVER 30 KNOTS AND SSTS WILL COOL DOWN TO 26 CELSIUS AND CAUSE
GRADUAL THEN RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. BY TAU 120,
TC ALCIDE WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN WIDE DISARRAY WITH VARIOUS SOLUTIONS BUT ALL LEADING TO AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWEST TRACK, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 10.8S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 11.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 11.9S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.6S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.1S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 55.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD
TOPS AND A BETTER DEFINED 10 NM RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE OBSERVED IN A 071731Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL
EYE IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY NORTH OT THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED IN EIR.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS JUST BELOW MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY RECENT ADT AND
SATCON ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND 88 KNOTS, RESPECTIVELY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
FAVORABLE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 24, TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN
TO A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE AS IT ENTERS A COL REGION BETWEEN
THE CURRENT STR AND A SECONDARY STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST
THAT WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AIDED
BY DECREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND INCREASED VWS. BY TAU
72, THE SYSTEM WILL CEASE ITS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AND BEGIN TO
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. THIS
STEERING WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER
WIND FIELD WHICH WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL AS TC 03S WEAKENS.
BY TAU 120, TC ALCIDE IS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS AS
IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AGREES ON AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING AND
NORTHWESTWARD TURN BUT REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN, LENDING TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 11.2S 54.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 54.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 11.7S 53.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 12.4S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 12.7S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.4S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.8S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.0S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 54.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE 12NM WIDE EYE FEATURE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
080000Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
AND HEDGED BETWEEN A 072140Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 109 KNOTS AND A FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 03S IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY TAU 24. TC 03S WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE STR AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AS THE STR
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. TC 03S WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DECREASE. BY TAU 96, A SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BUILD AND ALLOW FOR TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTHWEST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z,
082100Z AND 090300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 12.2S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 10.9S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 54.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 542 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN 18NM
WIDE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT-8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS
THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM
KNES AND FMEE, IN AGREEMENT WITH A 080319Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103
KTS, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PGTW CI ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS). TC
03S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
ALONG WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW DRAWN INTO AN
UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN
ENABLING STRONG PERSISTENT CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. TC 03S
IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT
BY TAU 24, LEADING TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS, MOST MODELS CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A SLOW MEANDERING LOOP
BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 72. ECMWF DISSENTS, PREDICTING THAT 03S WILL
CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH ECMWF DOES DEPICT A
SLOWDOWN IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TAU 24 AS WELL. IN LATER TAUS, A
SECONDARY STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM, AND TC 03S WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. TC 03S WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND
AS IT SLOWS DOWN AND CAUSES UPWELLING OF COOLER, LOW OHC WATER BELOW
THE SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
ENHANCING OUTFLOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND OUTFLOW WILL DIMINISH,
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AT TAU 120. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO PORTRAY THE LOOP SCENARIO FAVORED
BY THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS, ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
POOR AGREEMENT IN THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 12.0S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 12.5S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.1S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.0S 53.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.3S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL (MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH
AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED, DISORGANIZED EYE THAT IS FILLING WITH
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM FMEE, KNES, AND PGTW, OF T5.0 (90 KTS) TO T6.0 (115
KTS), AND AGREES WITH A 081014Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 95 KTS. TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG
WITH A FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST THAT WAS ENHANCING OUTFLOW HAS MOVED FURTHER EAST,
DISRUPTING THE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH REGARD TO TC 03S AND
LEADING TO SLACKENING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) VALUES ARE
EXTREMELY LOW, NEAR SINGLE DIGITS. TC 03S IS TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY TAU 24,
LEADING TO A QUASI-STATIONARY PERIOD. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS,
MOST MODELS CONSISTENTLY DEPICT A SLOW MEANDERING LOOP BETWEEN TAU
24 AND TAU 72. ECMWF DISSENTS, PREDICTING THAT 03S WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH ECMWF DOES DEPICT A SLOWDOWN
IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TAU 24 AS WELL. IN LATER TAUS, A SECONDARY
STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
MECHANISM, AND TC 03S WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT SLOWS
DOWN AND CAUSES UPWELLING OF COOLER, LOW OHC WATER BELOW THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH,
CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOW, TIGHT LOOP SCENARIO
BETWEEN TAU 24-72, ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT IN THE AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z,
090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 53.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 12.7S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.7S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.1S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS FILLED BUT
THICK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 081746Z METOP-A
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS
IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING T5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS). TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
ALONG WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WEAK
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE (27
CELSIUS) AND OHC REMAINS VERY UNFAVORABLE. TC 03S IS TRACKING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY
TAU 24, CAUSING TC 03S TO SLOW DOWN AND ENTER A QUASI-STATIONARY
STATE. AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED. DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL
WATER (DUE TO LOW OHC) AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN LATER TAUS,
A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH
AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. THIS
STEERING WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER
WIND FIELD WHICH WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL AS TC 03S WEAKENS.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THE TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BUT REMINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING SCENARIO.
THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 12.7S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 13.0S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.1S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.8S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.0S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 10.9S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 486 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST REGION
COVERING UP THE LLCC, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 090021Z SSMIS 91 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING T4.5 (77 KNOTS) TO
T5.0 (90 KNOTS). TC 03S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26
CELSIUS) AND OHC REMAINS VERY UNFAVORABLE. TC 03S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL WEAKEN AND REORIENT BY TAU
12, CAUSING TC 03S TO SLOW DOWN AND ENTER A QUASI-STATIONARY STATE.
AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITED. DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL WATER (DUE TO LOW
OHC) AND LACK OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. IN LATER TAUS, A SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST
WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TC
03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. THIS STEERING WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY THE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER WIND FIELD WHICH WILL BECOME MORE
INFLUENTIAL AS TC 03S WEAKENS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE
ON THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE
EXACT TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING
SCENARIO. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.2S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.3S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 53.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING CONVECTION PARTIALLY COVERING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 090306Z SSMIS
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 090306Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 72 KTS. TC 03S IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS).
HOWEVER, ITS DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WEAKENING, AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS MARGINAL, LEADING TO DETERIORATING AND
INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. TC 03S IS CAUSING UPWELLING OF
LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WATER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS A SMALL AREA OF SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS,
FURTHER DEPRIVING THE SYSTEM OF ENERGY. TC 03S HAS CURVED TO THE
SOUTH, TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST, WHICH IS WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTING,
LEAVING TC 03S IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STR
REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED.
DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL WATER (DUE TO LOW OHC) AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. IN LATER TAUS, A SECONDARY STR TO
THE WEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM,
CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE
NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THAT STR. THE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER WIND FIELD WILL ALSO DRIVE TC 03S TO THE
NORTHWEST AT LATER TAUS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES SUBJECT TO
LOWER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON
AN INITIAL SLOWING AND POSSIBLE LOOP, THEN THE EVENTUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST, BUT REMAINS IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER THAT DOES NOT PREDICT A
LOOP, AND INSTEAD DEPICTS A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK AT LATER TAUS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING SCENARIO. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 53.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 12.9S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.6S 53.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.5S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.0S 51.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 11.1S 50.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 487 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT TC 03S HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION
BUT MAINTAINED ITS SPIRAL BANDING, AND CONVECTION IS NEWLY FLARING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND THE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS
BETWEEN THE PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0
(65 KTS) AND THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS), WHILE A 080554Z
SATCON ESTIMATE IS 62 KTS. TC 03S IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 03S IS CAUSING UPWELLING OF LOW OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT (OHC) WATER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE-DERIVED SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS A SMALL AREA OF SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS, FURTHER
DEPRIVING THE SYSTEM OF ENERGY. TC 03S IS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST HAS WEAKENED AND IS
RE-ORIENTING, LEAVING TC 03S IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
AS THE STR REORIENTS, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS EXPECTED TO BE
INHIBITED. DURING THIS TIME, UPWELLING OF COOL WATER (DUE TO LOW
OHC) AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE STEADY
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH STATISTICAL CLIMATOLOGICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. IN LATER TAUS, A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST WILL BUILD AND BECOME THE DOMINANT
STEERING MECHANISM, CAUSING TC 03S TO TRACK BACK TO THE NORTH AND
THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THAT STR.
THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHALLOW LAYER WIND FIELD WILL ALSO
DRIVE TC 03S TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AND BECOMES SUBJECT TO LOWER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A
POSSIBLE LOOP, THEN THE EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST, BUT REMAINS
IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE EXACT TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR CONSENSUS AND CONTINUES TO FAVOR
A SLOW, TIGHT LOOPING SCENARIO. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 13.2S 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.9S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.9S 51.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 53.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEPEST
RAIN BANDS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 091725Z MHS 89 GHZ IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS A WARM BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE REGION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0
(65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE. THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, WITH LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (LESS THAN 10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IS BEING OFFSET BY THE
UPWELLING OF COOL WATER DUE TO THE SLOW TRACK SPEEDS. TC 03S IS
IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING SUBTROPICAL RIDGES
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AND TC
03S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, AND POOR OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE TIMING AND THE DIRECTION OF THE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CHANGE, LENDING HIGH UNCERTAINTY TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 13.0S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.9S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.7S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.5S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 11.7S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 100008Z SSMIS PASS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE SSMIS
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS WEAKENING, BUT CONTINUES TO
TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 03S HAS REMAINED NEARLY
STATIONARY IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. SLOW MOTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36, WHEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND
GUIDE THE CIRCULATION NORTHWESTWARD. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED
UNTIL DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 72 DUE TO MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, COOLED THROUGH OCEANIC UPWELLING BY THE SLOW-MOVING
SYSTEM, AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE THAT
TRACK MOTION WILL BE SLOW OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS TC 03S REMAINS IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 36,
BUT GENERALLY INDICATE A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE
CURRENT FORECAST LIES WITHIN AN ENVELOPE OF PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS
AND NOT FAR FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE NEAR-TERM AND LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 52.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 52.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 12.8S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.7S 52.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.5S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.3S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 11.3S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 52.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS REDUCED AND WEAKER CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
COMPACT RAIN BANDS THAT CONTINUE TO WRAP TIGHT INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS), RAGGED, AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE FEATURE IN THE
MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW BRIGHTNESS LLC
FEATURE IN THE 100535Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS, COOLED BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE
PROLONGED QS MOTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QS OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS THEN WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE WEST ASSUMES STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BUT WITH A GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF AN EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
100600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z, AND
110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 52.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 52.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 12.7S 52.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.5S 52.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.3S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.0S 52.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.6S 51.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 52.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH COMPACT RAIN
BANDS FEEDING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM LOW LEVEL CLOUD STREAKS
SPIRALING INTO A QUASI-STATIONARY LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL AT 26-27 CELSIUS, COOLED
BY UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE PROLONGED QS MOTION. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST ASSUMES
STEERING. INCREASING VWS AND COOL SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD BUT WITH A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF AN
EVENTUAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 12.6S 52.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.3S 52.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.8S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.3S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 52.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 101808Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW AND KNES. BASED ON FINAL T NUMBERS OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45
KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSETTING A VERY LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO UPWELLING FROM THE QUASI-
STATIONARY (QS) STORM TRACK. THE RECENT MOTION SUGGESTS THAT A
SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEGUN TO STEER
THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS, FALLING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY
TAU 48. GENERALLY, MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE STORM TRACK.
SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS UNDER 100 NM BY TAU 48 BUT THE QS NATURE
OF MOVEMENT LENDS ITSELF TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 52.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 52.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.0S 52.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 11.6S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.1S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 52.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 102303Z SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING AND LIMITED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND COOL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
HAMPERED BY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS RECENTLY CAUSED THE CYCLONE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE
GRADUALLY WEAKENS, FALLING BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 36. WITH A
SPREAD OF ABOUT 76 NM BY TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, LENDING TO LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
04S (BOUCHRA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 52.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 52.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 12.2S 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 11.9S 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 11.4S 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 52.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 514 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE RAGGED BUT
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED AS THE
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION BECAME SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ERODE MAINLY DUE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, POSSIBLY
SOONER. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,
120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 51.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 51.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.1S 51.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 51.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (ALCIDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAD BECOME RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE WEAKENED
CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHWESTWARD. TC 03S IS NOW EXPOSED TO
HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY, COOL DRY AIR IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THESE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE AND WILL LEAD
TO THE DISSIPATION OF TC ALCIDE BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_alcide_jtwc_advisories.htm
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