Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ANN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 111530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5S 160.5E TO 14.9S 152.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.4S 160.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 159.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 160.0E, APPROXIMATELY
820NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111044Z 89GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
SLIGHTLY ASYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEPENING
CONVECTION ABOVE AND POLEWARD OF THE LLC. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH 94P UNDER A SMALL REGION OF
LOW-MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SSTS REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29C) IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM, BUT DECREASE GRADUALLY TO THE WEST. GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD, MOVE INTO
AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY.
ADDITIONALLY, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE ON
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121530Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/111521ZMAY2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 159.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 159.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 16.1S 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.6S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.0S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.7S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 12.7S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 158.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 759
NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN BAND WRAPPING AROUND
FROM THE EAST AND SUSTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING A COMBINATION OF THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 111903Z SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS), BELOW THE KNES
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) BASED ON A 111125Z ASCAT-
C IMAGE SHOWING 30 KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), SUPPORTIVE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 27P IS TRACKING ALONG ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). OVER THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, THIS STR WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS
THE STR REORIENTS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT EQUATORWARD SLIGHTLY, MAKING
LANDFALL SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF CAPE YORK AFTER TAU 72.
THROUGH TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE UNTIL
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW, SLIGHTLY COOLER SST, AND STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE THE CONDITIONS MARGINAL. AROUND TAU
72, INCREASED VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. THE 96 HOUR POSITION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE FAVORABLE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA
BUT HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT REGENERATION. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
MARGINAL AND IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN
ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS AND THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT (200 NM SPREAD AT TAU
96) WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 111530).//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 158.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 158.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 15.7S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.2S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.7S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.5S 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.8S 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.9S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 158.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 732 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
UNDER, AND OBSCURED BY, DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE MSI ALSO SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON A
112308Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THIS PASS WAS ALSO USED TO ESTIMATE THE
INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE ASCAT PASS AND MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK FIXES OF T2.5-
3.0 (35-45 KTS). INTENSIFICATION IS BEING HAMPERED BY MARGINAL
(ABOUT 27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND A TONGUE OF
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH DESPITE LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 27P WILL TRACK WESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME LESS SUPPORTIVE OVER TIME, FIRST DUE TO DECREASING SST
AND REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THEN LATER DUE TO HIGH VWS. THE
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOVER AROUND 40 KTS UNTIL THE VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE AROUND TAU 72. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN, MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG CAPE YORK, THEN DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE GULF
OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM WILL FALL BELOW 35 KTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EXTENDED TO 96 HOURS TO
ESTIMATE THE POSITION OF THE LLCC AS IT TRACKS OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA (GOC). HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT THE REMNANT
CIRCULATION FROM RE-INTENSIFYING OVER THE GOC DESPITE WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SST. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS OFF
THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA ARE HOVERING AROUND 25-30 KTS, ALMOST
MATCHING THE FORECASTED INTENSITY OF TC 27P AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD.
ALL THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 120900 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 003 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 157.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 157.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 15.6S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.2S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.9S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.5S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.6S 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.7S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 157.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED
NORTHWESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN
THE 120257Z AMSR2 36GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS AND T3.5/55KTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CORAL SEA ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT
27-28C. TC 27P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA JUST BEFORE TAU 72 THEN CROSS INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
FUEL AND SUSTAIN A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP 55 KNOTS, TEMPERED BY A
VIGOROUS COLD DRY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE CORAL SEA UP TO TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, LANDFALL AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS IT APPROACHES GOVE ON THE WEST SHORE OF THE
GOC. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,
130300Z AND 130900Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TIMING OF LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATION IN REMARKS.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 156.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 156.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 15.5S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.1S 152.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.8S 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.3S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.6S 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.9S 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 156.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED
WESTWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS ARE BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A DEFINED LLC
FEATURE IN THE 121025Z 25KM RESOLUTION DIRECT ASCAT PASS SHOWING A
FEW 50-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN RIM OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CORAL SEA ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. TC
27P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA JUST AROUND TAU 42 THEN CROSS INTO
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC). THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
TEMPERED BY A VIGOROUS COLD DRY SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE CORAL SEA,
WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU 42. AFTERWARD, LANDFALL
AND INCREASING VWS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS
IT APPROACHES GOVE ON THE WEST SHORE OF THE GOC. THE NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 155.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 155.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.4S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.0S 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.5S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.0S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 12.9S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.6S 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 155.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 567 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A 200 NM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) CLOUD SIGNATURE.
DESPITE THE CDO OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A PAIR OF MICROWAVE IMAGES, A 111541Z GMI 37 GHZ
AND A 111635Z SSMI 85 GHZ, THAT SHOW A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYEWALL.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK INTENSITIES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY TEPID (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND A TONGUE OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 27P WILL TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WILL LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BUT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TC 27P
TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 36. AT THAT POINT, INCREASED VWS IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48, LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON CAPE
YORK. PRIOR TO TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA (GOC). PRIOR TO TAU 96, TC 27P SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR
GOVE, AUSTRALIA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS A SOUTHERN
OUTLIER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK, TO OFFSET
THE INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z,
130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 154.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 154.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.0S 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.6S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.1S 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.6S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.6S 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 153.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 491 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING UNDER A CIRRUS SHIELD AND
ROBUST OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE AMBIGUITIES OF A
122246Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
HEDGED BETWEEN PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED METOP-B ASCAT PASS WHICH HAD SEVERAL 45-50 KT
WIND BARBS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL OVERALL WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING
OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND
RELATIVELY DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, TC 27P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL INHIBIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. BY TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATES IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AROUND TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER.
AROUND TAU 48, LANDFALL IS EXPECTED OVER CAPE YORK. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM), MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED NORTH OF THE
CONSENSUS TO ADJUST FOR THE OUTLIER, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 152.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 152.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 14.6S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.2S 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.5S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.3S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.6S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 152.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A 130509Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS GREATLY REDUCED DEEP CONVECTION AND THAT THE PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE EYE HAS DETERIORATED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A MOSTLY VISIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IN THE MSI LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE REDUCED DEEP
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BELOW THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY FIXES
OF T3.5 (55 KTS), ALTHOUGH FINAL T NUMBERS ARE DROPPING. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL OVERALL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 27P
WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 36, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE AS NORTHERLY FLOW FROM
THE STR ALOFT IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM, BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND.
ADDITIONALLY, TC 27P WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA
AFTER TAU 36, LEADING TO FURTHER WEAKENING. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DESPITE WARM (28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72 IF NOT SOONER. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
SOUTHERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM), MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS TO ADJUST
FOR THE OUTLIER, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z,
140300Z AND 140900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.1S 151.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 151.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.5S 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.8S 146.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.3S 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 13.0S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 12.0S 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PERSISTENT SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER, AND A DEEP CONVECTIVE RAINBAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
AMBIGUITIES FROM A 131119Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING THE CLEAR LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED
ON THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWS A SWATH OF 35 KT WINDS, AND A SMALLER
AREA OF 40 AND 45 KT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER, ALL TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SEEN IN THE ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL OVERALL WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR WRAPPING IN FROM THE
NORTH. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 27P WILL TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTH. BY TAU 24, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL DECREASE AS FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IMPINGES ON THE
SYSTEM, BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND. ADDITIONALLY, TC 27P WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA AROUND TAU 36, LEADING TO
FURTHER WEAKENING. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DESPITE WARM (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SSTS IN
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. HOWEVER,
THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE LATER FORECAST SKIRTS THE COAST OF NORTHERN
AUSTRALIA OR TRACKS BACK OVER WATER MAY ALTER THE DISSIPATION
TIMELINE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOUTHERN OUTLIER (NAVGEM), MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS TO ADJUST FOR THE OUTLIER, WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 14.3S 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.7S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.2S 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 12.8S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.9S 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 149.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 281 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). A 131733Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW-MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS OFFSET
BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
AS WELL AS THE RECENT SOUNDING FROM WILLIS ISLAND SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A 131119Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40-45 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.0 (45
KNOTS). TC 27P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 220NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TC 27P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
12 BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS VWS AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS INCREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WEAKENS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 14.6S 149.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 149.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 13.9S 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.4S 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.9S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 12.5S 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 148.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132251Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED,
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
THE SOUTH QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE 14/00Z SOUNDING FROM
WILLIS ISLAND SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR,
WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS). TC 27P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 165NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 27P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS INCREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 147.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 147.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.6S 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.9S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 12.2S 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 146.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 178 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FLARING 50NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON THE DIMINISHING
CONVECTION AND THE KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS), WHICH IS ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF 2.0 (30 KTS). AN
OBSERVATION FROM BOUGAINVILLE REEF, 64NM TO THE SOUTHWEST, READS 33
KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND 1009MB. WHILE THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO
GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE SOUTH, THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED PAST THE REEF
BASED ON THE OBSERVATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AS NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST IS IMPINGING UPON THE
SYSTEM AND SHEARING THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
IS BATTLING CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR TO SUSTAIN THE SMALL
AREA OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER, TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER SUGGESTS THE
PRESENCE OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR, WHICH ALONG WITH THE VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LED TO THE RECENT WEAKENING. TC 27P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 27P IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
OVER CAPE YORK, CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND VWS
INCREASES, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z,
142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.0S 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 145.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P (ANN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM NORTH OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
STRUGGLING CONVECTION SHEARED EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON THE DIMINISHING
CONVECTION AND THE KNES AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.0 (30 KTS). OBSERVATIONS FROM REEF STATIONS OVER 100NM TO THE
SOUTH READ 24-33 KTS DUE TO GRADIENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION
AND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTH, BUT IT IS ASSESSED
THAT THESE WINDS ARE NOT WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) BUT MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST IS IMPINGING UPON THE SYSTEM AND
SHEARING THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE
CONVERGENCE ALOFT LED TO DISSIPATION. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA IN
AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 17 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ann_jtwc_advisories.htm
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