Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BOUCHRA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 100230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100121Z NOV 18//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 100130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 4.9S 91.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 90.9E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S
85.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2S 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 558 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. A
091931Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. A 092302Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLCC WITH A SMALL GROUPING OF 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENIRONMENT WITH VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
10 TO 20 KNOT VWS, AND 26 TO 28 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY, BUT ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110130Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 90.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 90.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 5.6S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 5.6S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.4S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.4S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.1S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 7.6S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.3S 94.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 90.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 100353Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29
CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS)
STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ASSUMES STEERING. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 72, FUELED BY INCREASED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 5.6S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 5.5S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.3S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.4S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.5S 91.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.5S 93.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 10.4S 93.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 89.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON LOW BRIGHTNESS CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE
100924Z SSMI AND 101024Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35KTS
FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
WITH LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO BE IN A QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE UP TO TAU 48 AS IT
CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
SLOWLY AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT
45 KNOTS AROUND TAUS 48-72, FUELED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
CYCLONE DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND TRAJECTORIES IN
THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 5.4S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.3S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.4S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 5.7S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.1S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.4S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 10.1S 94.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1018 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION AND MOST OF THE RAIN BANDS TO THE
WEST OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A
101525Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TC 04S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING INHIBITED BY MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE (28-29 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO AN
EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS A STR BUILDS IN TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW FOR LIMITED
INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RANGE OF DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS FROM A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK (NAVGEM) TO TRACKS RANGING
FROM EASTWARD (HWRF) TO NORTHWESTWARD (BULK OF THE REMAINING
MEMBERS). THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 5.6S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.6S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 5.4S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.3S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.1S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.4S 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 9.1S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 11.3S 93.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 5.6S 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 988 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 102319Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS HEAVY PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS).
TC 04S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DECENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING
OFFSET BY HIGH (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO REVERSE COURSE AND TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS A STR
BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE CONTINUED MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
ALLOWS FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION. MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A RANGE
OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FROM A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK (NAVGEM) TO
AN EASTWARD TRACK (HWRF). MOST OF THE MEMBERS DEPICT A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
BECAUSE OF THE WIDE SPREAD (OVER 500NM WHEN IGNORING NAVGEM AND
HWRF) IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 5.5S 88.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.5S 88.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 5.3S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.3S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 5.6S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.0S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 7.2S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 8.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.3S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 5.5S 88.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BACK-TRACK EQUATORWARD AS
FORMATIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPED FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW BRIGHTNESS
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 110331Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT
IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STATE UP TO TAU 48 AND MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY AS A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST ASSUMES STEERING. AFTER TAU 72, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER STEERING AND DRIVE
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING
VWS WILL ENHANCE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND PROMOTE A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 55 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD OUT WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK FROM THE QS STATE. IN VIEW OF
THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 5.3S 88.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 078 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 88.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 5.4S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.7S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 5.9S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.3S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 7.4S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 8.7S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.6S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 5.3S 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO LOOP POLEWARD AS IT MAINTAINED
OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED LOW BRIGHTNESS CIRCULATION
FEATURE IN THE 111200Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINAL
AT 27 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
ASSUMES STEERING. AFTER TAU 72, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE OVER STEERING AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE
SOUTHWESTWARD. INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND DECREASING VWS WILL
ENHANCE THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND PROMOTE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION
TO 50 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 96, VWS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE AND BEGIN TO
ERODE THE CYCLONE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD
OUT UP TO OVER 620 NM WITH HWRF ON THE EXTREME LEFT AND EGRR ON THE
RIGHT. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 5.3S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.3S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 5.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 6.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.3S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 6.7S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.7S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 11.7S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 5.4S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 990 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH REVEALS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BETWEEN
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-
45 KNOTS). HIGH (25-35 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS COUNTERACTING
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TRACK EASTWARD AS A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. IN THE LATER TAUS, COMPETING
INFLUENCE FROM A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL BEGIN TO TURN TC 04S POLEWARD. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL, INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE BELOW WARNING
THRESHOLD SOONER THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED DISSIPATION AT TAU
120. SPREAD IN THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE (880 NM) BY
TAU 120 DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. FOR THAT REASON,
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z,
120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (ALCIDE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 5.2S 89.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.2S 89.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 5.7S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.5S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.1S 91.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 8.6S 92.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 10.0S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 5.3S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1003 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF, AND
OBSCURING, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A COMBINATION OF THE
EIR IMAGERY AND A 112158Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE TO IDENTIFY
THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE LLCC UNDER THE CIRRUS SHIELD. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AT 28-29 CELSIUS, SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TC 04S IS MEANDERING
SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY
TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 120. THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST, HIGH VWS WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.
SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE DUE TO
DIFFERENCES IN THE ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF THE STEERING RIDGES,
LENDING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
(ALCIDE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 5.9S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.9S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 6.3S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.7S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.2S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 8.0S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 9.3S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.3S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.6S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 6.0S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1004 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON A 120311Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE SHOWING
A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
120348Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 04S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TC 04S HAS A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL BUT HAS A WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
04S IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36,
TC 04S WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, AN STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE TC
04S TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION. TC 04S WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS THROUGH
TAU 120. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHEASTWARD
AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NVGM AND HWRF HAVE A SPREAD OF 1200NM
BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, FAVORING AFUM. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 6.2S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.2S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 6.5S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 6.9S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.6S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 8.3S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 9.1S 90.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 11.1S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 6.3S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1003 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121147Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
121145Z ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KNOTS) AND HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
FMEE AND A CI OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT TC 04S IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25
TO 35 KNOTS). TC 04S HAS A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND A
WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 04S IS SLOWLY
TRACKING SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36,
TC 04S WILL TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, AN STR LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND CAUSE TC
04S TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC 04S WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 40 AND 45
KNOTS THROUGH TAU 120. THE MAJORITY OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. NVGM AND HWRF HAVE A
SPREAD OF GREATER THAN 1300 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING AFUM. OVERALL, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 6.6S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 6.9S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 7.5S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 8.1S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.3S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 11.7S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 6.7S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1001 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION LOOSELY ORGANIZED AROUND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T2.5 TO 3.5 AND CORROBORATED BY A 121548Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING
A REGION OF 35 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 04S
CONTINUES TO FIGHT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS),
WHICH IS PROVIDING DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT RESTRICTING THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28
TO 29 DEGREES C). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEYOND
TAU 48 AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH FILLS
AND BUILDS EASTWARD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NO
SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
BUT GIVEN THE UPCOMING CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
131500Z,AND 132100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 6.9S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.9S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 7.1S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 7.3S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 7.7S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 8.4S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 9.5S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.1S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 12.8S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 90.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1036 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON BROAD TURNING OF WARMEST CLOUDS
IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS BARELY AT WARNING CRITERIA AT
35 KNOTS, WHICH MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS, GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW ARE T2.0. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28 TO 29 DEGREES C), TC 04S CONTINUES TO
FIGHT STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BEYOND TAU 48 AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH FILLS AND THE STR BUILDS
EASTWARD. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, NO
SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO REMAIN STRONG, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT TC 04S WILL DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED,
DESPITE CONTINUED GLOBAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE FUTURE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 7.2S 90.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 7.2S 90.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 7.3S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 7.2S 90.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SHALLOW DISORGANIZED CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED
EASTWARD, PARTLY EXPOSING A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 130327Z
ASCAT DIRECT PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK
FIX FROM PGTW OF T1.5. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING
CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 10 FEET.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221ZNOV2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 12.2S 84.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 84.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.2S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.0S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.3S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 15.8S 75.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.4S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 84.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 767 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THEN TIGHTLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
180324Z METOP-A AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED TO THE LOW END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55
KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (5-15 KNOTS), AND
FAVORABLE SSTS (27 CELSIUS) WHICH ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING STEADY
DEVELOPMENT. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STR EXTENSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST. WESTERLY VWS
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 36 AND WILL STEADILY
INCREASE AS TC 04S TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO STEADILY DEVELOP UNTIL TAU 24 AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL
TAU 36 BEFORE BEGINNING TO STEADILY WEAKEN. IN ADDITION, SSTS WILL
DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS BY TAU 72, CONTRIBUTING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU
96. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AVAILABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE
REGENERATION OF TC 04S, THEREFORE, JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 172230).//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 13.7S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.1S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
TOP OF THE LLCC IN ADDITION TO THE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURE
WRAPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND TIGHTLY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN 181218Z SSMIS 37 GHZ COLOR-COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED BANDING FEATURE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (5-15 KNOTS), AND FAVORABLE SSTS (27 CELSIUS).
THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR ANCHORED TO THE EAST WITH AN EXTENSION
TO THE SOUTH OF TC 04S. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OFFSET BY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26-27 CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW OHC WILL ALLOW
TC BOUCHRA TO INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS AND THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, NORTHWESTERLY VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, CAUSING
STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE AND BECOME UNFAVORABLE BY TAU 60, CONTRIBUTING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER
(APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AT TAU 48). DESPITE THE ONE
OUTLIER, THERE IS LOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH
IS PLACED VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z
AND 191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.1S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.9S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.6S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.0S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TC 04S. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 181557Z AMSU
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 181541Z OSCAT PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS, BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (PGTW) AND T3.5
(FMEE/KNES). THIS ASSESSMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 48 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER A REGION
OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF APPROXIMATELY 27 DEGREES C. TC 04S IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN AN
INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 24,
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE,
TOGETHER WITH DECREASING SSTS, RESULTING IN THE STEADY WEAKENING
OF TC 04S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
TURNING TOWARD THE WEST BY TAU 48 AND BEYOND, SO THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDNECE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES JUST SLIGHTLY
TO THE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z
AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 13.7S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 14.6S 80.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.2S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 15.7S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 15.7S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
SPIRAL RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 182341Z GMI
36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 55 KTS, BASED ON
A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55 KTS)
FROM KNES, T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTOMATED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A
REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) (27 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 50 KTS
THROUGH TAU 24 IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BEYOND TAU
24, VWS WILL INCREASE, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE, AND SSTS
WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AFTER TAU 48, RESULTING IN
THE STEADY WEAKENING OF TC 04S WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU
72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD TRACK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD OF 300 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED JUST NORTH OF CONSENSUS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 14.5S 81.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 81.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.4S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.0S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 77.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.4S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.1S 72.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 80.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 674 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 190408Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND AND DEFINED CENTER,
HOWEVER, THE LLCC IS DECOUPLED DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THIS FEATURE AS EVIDENCED IN A
190409Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 50 TO 55
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS RECENT
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO ANOTHER STR EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 04S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 25C. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH A 167NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE,
THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z,
192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.3S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 80.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH A LARGE AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 191159Z F-18
SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS A PGTW
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 04S IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN
WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO ANOTHER STR EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 04S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE TO 25C. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.9S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.3S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 78.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 639 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 191641Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS, AND A FEW 40-44 KT WIND BARBS,
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY AGREES WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AND IS
BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS) AND THE 191638Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 50 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS NOT ENOUGH TO COMPENSATE FOR MODERATE TO HIGH
(15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), LEADING TO SLIGHT WEAKENING.
TC 04S IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AS
THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST. TC 04S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE
TO 25C AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 36
UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.9S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.1S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, INCREASINGLY RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
EIR LOOP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED 192158Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWING THE
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BELOW THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, AND AGREES WITH THE
192311Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 39 KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED TO 25-30 KTS, FURTHER
SEPARATING THE LLCC AND THE CONVECTION. STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
NOT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN STRUGGLING CONVECTION WITH THE HIGH VWS.
TC 04S HAS SLOWED DRAMATICALLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS AS THE LLCC
SEPARATES FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS STEERED BY SLOWER, LOWER LEVEL
FLOW. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. THE LLCC AND CONVECTION ARE ALREADY WELL
SEPARATED, AND TC 04S WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE
TO 25C AFTER TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24
UNDER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 78.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 78.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 78.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 604 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, INCREASINGLY RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED 150 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE IR LOOP AND SUPPORTED BY A 200348Z 89GHZ
MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS IN LINE
WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM
PGTW, AND AGREES WITH A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 36 KTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) REMAINS HIGH
(25-30 KTS) AND IS CAUSING A SIGNIFICANT SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LLCC
AND THE NEAREST CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW HOWEVER, IT IS NOT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE HIGH VWS AND COOLING
(26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 04S HAS SLOWED AND TURNED
BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION HAS
DECREASED AND THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE. TC 04S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
ALONG AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST WITH
SLIGHT NORTH AND SOUTH VARIATIONS DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE
STEERING FLOW. THE HIGH VWS AND GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, REACHING FULL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DESPITE
THE SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST, LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND
THE CURRENT STORM MOTION LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 200600Z IS 16 FEET.
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_bouchra_jtwc_advisories.htm
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