WTXS21 PGTW 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 165 NM RADIUS OF 22.2S 38.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.8S 36.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.8S 37.0E, APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A LARGE AREA
OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED,
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL (UL) ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS (5-15KTS) OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER
BUT INCREASING SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH AND NORTHEAST. VWS IS OFFSET BY
STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO DEFINED POLEWARD AND WEAK EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (28-30C)
IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONSOLIDATE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
TAKES A MEANDERING NORTHWARD TRACK ALONG THE MOZAMBICAN COAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200400Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
190351ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.3S 38.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 18.9S 37.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 17.9S 37.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 16.8S 35.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION AND
SHALLOW BANDING EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON BANDING FEATURES IN A 192301Z
AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED
ON A PARTIAL 191932Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 10S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGH TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LIMITING THE FORWARD SPEED AND ALLOWING
FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO NO LONGER ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL.  AS A RESULT, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED AND
TC 10S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR ON A
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AROUND TAU 48, TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36.
THIS SPREAD MAY BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STR WEAKENING, AN
APPROACHING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND DIFFICULTY
TRACKING THE CIRCULATION AS TC 10S WEAKENS. BASED ON THE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190400).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200600Z --- NEAR 22.9S 38.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 38.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 21.3S 38.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 19.6S 38.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 18.3S 37.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 17.4S 36.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE, PARTIALLY EXPOSED, AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH A WEAK, ALBEIT CONSOLIDATING, CENTRAL
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A
BROAD MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 200359Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.9 AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 42 OVER
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND
INCREASING VWS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 10S WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SPREADS SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTERWARD. BASED ON THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201200Z --- NEAR 22.2S 38.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 38.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 20.5S 38.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 19.0S 37.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 18.1S 37.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.1S 36.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 38.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM WEST
OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAK BUT
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED 40 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE
201110Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE DISPLACEMENT
OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, FULLY REVEALING THE LLC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST AND
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36 OVER
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL A
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 50
KNOTS BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MOSTLY DUE TO DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
AND INCREASING VWS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 10S WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD OUT EVEN MORE WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A
REVERSE TRACK BACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER LANDFALL. THIS
IS LIKELY AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF
MADAGASCAR. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   201800Z --- NEAR 21.7S 39.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 39.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 20.2S 38.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 18.8S 37.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 17.8S 37.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 16.9S 36.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 39.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 68 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RAIN BANDS IN ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 201633Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE IN WHICH NORTHERN RAIN BANDS HELP
PINPOINT THE LIKELY POSITION OF THE LLCC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS PLACED ON THE HIGH SIDE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS) BASED ON A
201631Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 10S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) UNTIL
DISSIPATING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL.
THROUGH TAU 12, THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW TC
10S TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHED OUTFLOW ALONG WITH
CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS WILL CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL
LANDFALL AND DISSIPATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 24. AFTER THAT TIME, THE MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE TC AS IT WEAKENS AND SOME
POSSIBLY BEGIN TRACKING A NEW CIRCULATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OFF MADAGASCAR INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AROUND TAU 36-48. BASED
ON THE LACK OF CLEAR GUIDANCE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF BINARY
INTERACTION WITH A NEW CIRCULATION BEYOND TAU 24, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z,
211500Z AND 212100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210000Z --- NEAR 20.9S 38.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S 38.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 19.3S 37.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 18.2S 37.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.3S 37.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 38.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 119 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
UNDER SOME THIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
KNES AND PGTW OF T2.0-2.5 (30-35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
OVERALL WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCES
FOR TC 10S WILL BE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLE
BINARY INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION (INVEST 93S), LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHERN TIP OF MADAGASCAR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY NEAR 35 KTS UNTIL DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE AT AROUND TAU 30. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM, WHICH IS SLOWER AND TO THE WEST OF THE OTHER MEMBERS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO COMPENSATE FOR THE NAVGEM OUTLIER. SOMETIME
AFTER 10S IS FORECASTED TO DISSIPATE, A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE,
POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF 93S AND THE REMNANTS OF 10S MERGING, IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND TRACK SOUTHWARD. BASED ON HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT
THE END OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
WTXS31 PGTW 210900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 20.1S 38.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1S 38.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 18.7S 37.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.6S 37.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 37.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z. 
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 19.3S 37.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 37.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 18.3S 36.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 17.6S 36.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 37.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM WITH THE FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED THE MSI LOOP AND LINED
UP WITH A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE 211130Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.9 AND REFLECTS THE
WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST ANCHORED
OVER SOUTH AFRICA, MAKING LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 OVER NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT INTENSITY AT BEST BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH SOME
MODELS INDICATING A REVERSE TRACK INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. THIS
IS LIKELY AN INDICATION OF EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A
SECONDARY CYCLONE THAT IS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 36.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 36.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 18.1S 35.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.5S 36.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 36.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DESMOND), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287 NM
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER LAND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 
QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE ASSOCIATED CIRRUS SHIELD OBSCURING 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 
211618Z SSMIS ENHANCED 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH SHOWED THAT THE 
LLCC IS DISPLACED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS, AND WAS LOCATED 
JUST OFFSHORE AT 1800Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOW END OF AUTOMATED DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF T2.9 (43 KNOTS) FROM ADT AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 41 
KNOTS. BOTH TECHNIQUES ARE TRACKING THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS 
OVERLAND AND THUS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OVER 
WATER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER HITS, SO A 
CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS WAS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM LIES IN A 
MARGINAL REGION, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) EASTERLY VWS, AND 
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY A RELATIVELY STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RECENT 
CONVECTIVE FLARE. TC 10S HAS MADE LANDFALL JUST AFTER 1800Z ALONG 
THE CENTRAL MOZAMBIQUE COASTLINE AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING 
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
OVER SOUTH AFRICA. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING INLAND, IT WILL 
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT, FULLY DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD WITH THE MAJORITY SHOWING A TRACK NORTH, 
THEN NORTHEAST AND THEN A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE 
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM REEMERGING OVER WATER BY AROUND TAU 48, WITH 
THE ECMWF BEING THE PRIMARY OUTLIER THAT DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM 
BACK OVER WATER. THE TRACK REVERSAL IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN 
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF TC 
10S AND INVEST AREA 93S, CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL MADAGASCAR. WHAT 
REMNANTS DO EMERGE IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL WILL BE WEAK AND WILL 
BE RAPIDLY ADSORBED INTO INVEST 93S. IN LIGHT OF THE COMPLEX NATURE 
OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN TC 10S AND INVEST 93S THERE IS LOW 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 13 FEET.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_desmond_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]