Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GELENA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HABROR HI//051352ZFEB19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.0S 53.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.3S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.1S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.3S 55.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.5S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.2S 65.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.8S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 53.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED BUT OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 052202Z AMSR2 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A VERY WELL DEFINED LLCC AND DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS)
BASED ON A FMEE FIX INTENSITY OF T3.0 (35 KNOTS) AND AN AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.1 (36 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VWS (15-20 KNOTS) WHICH IS
BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW BEING
PROVIDED BY A UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED OVER MADAGASCAR.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR OVER MADAGASCAR WILL MOVE WESTWARD
AND WEAKEN, ALLOWING FOR THE DEEP STR OVER THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN
INDIAN OCEAN TO TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND
PUSH TC 13S ONTO A SOUTH, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK BY TAU 36,
ACCELERATING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SHIFTS TO A DUAL-
CHANNEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BY TAU 48, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
THEREAFTER, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS EXCEPT NAVGEM
SUPPORTING THE TRACK NORTHWEST, THEN TURNING SOUTH WITHIN 24 HOURS
AND ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD. NAVGEM INDICATES A BROAD TURN TO THE
EAST THEN ULTIMATELY SOUTHEAST BUT THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED
UNLIKELY AT THE CURRENT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW
051400).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 11.9S 53.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.4S 54.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.8S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 60.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.3S 67.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 26.2S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.0S 53.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED BUT OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AMBIGUITIES FROM A 060517Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON 40 KT WIND BARBS IN THE ASCAT
PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND
MODERATE VWS (20-25 KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED
OVER MADAGASCAR. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TC 13S WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTERWARD, THE STR TO THE WEST WILL RECEDE TO THE WEST AS
A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE DEEP STR OVER THE CENTRAL
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINATE STEERING
MECHANISM AND ACCELERATE TC 13S ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AS
TC 13S MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND TAPS INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KTS BY TAU 72.
AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH GFS, HWRF, AND ECMWF SLOWER AND WEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED TOWARDS THE
ECMWF SOLUTION, SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 12.3S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.4S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 12.8S 53.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.4S 54.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.1S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.0S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.4S 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 27.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 504 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS CYCLING AROUND AN INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 061017Z AMSR-2 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS ALIGNS WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), BUT IS BELOW THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KTS) AND THE FMEE ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 13S LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND MODERATE VWS (20-25
KNOTS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S
HAS COMPLETED ITS TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE WEST
WILL NOW BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AND ACCELERATE TC
13S ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO STEADILY
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL IMPROVE AS TC 13S MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
TAPS INTO THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KTS BY TAU 48. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BETWEEN CHIPS AT THE EXTREME HIGH
END, COAMPS-GFS, COAMPS-NAVGEM, AND COAMPS-HWRF BELOW THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS WHICH IS BEING PULLED UPWARDS BY CHIPS, AND STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH IS WELL BELOW EVEN THE GPCE CURVE.
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WHICH IS
WELL BELOW THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE
MESOSCALE MODELS. AFTERWARDS, VWS WILL STEADILY INCREASE AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT,
LEADING TO STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT TC 13S HAS TURNED
TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z,
070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 12.9S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.9S 54.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.3S 55.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.1S 57.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.8S 63.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.8S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.9S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS CONSOLIDATED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 061404Z
SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS), AND
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VWS WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
TRACK FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST DURATION. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING,
REDUCING TC 13S TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 12.5S 53.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 53.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.0S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.1S 54.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.9S 56.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.0S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 21.5S 65.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.1S 70.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 27.0S 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 53.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 01
KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN A QUASI-STATIONARY MODE AND
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AS RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION WITH AN EVOLVING PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WARM CENTRAL PIXELS OVER THE
EVOLVING EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 062134Z ATMS IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS
TRACK FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST DURATION. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 135 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING,
REDUCING TC 13S TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z, AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 53.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 53.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.9S 53.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 14.4S 54.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.4S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.5S 59.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.5S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 24.4S 70.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 26.3S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 53.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN INTERMITTENT
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON
THE INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A 070317Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 070318Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 65 KTS, THOUGH THE FMEE DVORAK ESTIMATE WAS T4.5
(77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (20-25 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND NASCENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING DRAWN INTO AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST. TC 13S HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING A
PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, AND MOST RECENTLY TOOK A SLOW BUT
UNEXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE EAST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD IN AND ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU
12. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS HEDGED SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE NEAR
TERM, AS MOST MODELS ARE DEPICTING IMMEDIATE, UNREALISTICALLY FAST
DOUBLE-DIGIT ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN
ADDITION TO DECREASING VWS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL
RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING,
REDUCING TC 13S TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY UNDER THE
MULTIMODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE RECENT REALIZED
QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD AND FAST PREDICTED ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE ALONG-TRACK JTWC
FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FOR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 53.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 53.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.2S 54.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.8S 55.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.8S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.6S 61.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 22.4S 66.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.8S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.6S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 53.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 453 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN
INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE IN THE
MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS), WHILE A 071009Z SATCON
ESTIMATE IS LOWER, AT 66 KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC
13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS (30 CELSIUS),
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND NASCENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING DRAWN INTO AN
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13S HAS
ACCELERATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. ADDITIONALLY,
THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PULL TC 13S QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST, BUT TRACK SPEEDS WILL SLOW
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY; TC 13S
IS TOO FAR NORTH TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH. TC 13S IS NOT YET
FORECAST TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OR CROSS THE 26 DEGREE
CELSIUS ISOTHERM WITHIN THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
TOWARDS THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. IN THE NEAR TERM, DECREASING VWS
AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.
MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF THE PEAK PREDICTED
INTENSITY, AND THUS THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY NOW PEAKS AT 120 KTS
AT TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, DECREASING SSTS, AND
DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA,
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING, REDUCING TC 13S TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU
120. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY UNDER THE MULTIMODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
THERE IS HIGH AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD FOR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, AND OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND
081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 54.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 54.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 15.2S 55.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.8S 57.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.6S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.1S 62.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 25.3S 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.0S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 54.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
NORTH OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY IMPROVED AS RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO AN ENLARGED CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH A RAGGED BUT
DEFINED 20-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP
WELL WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 071728Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES TO REFLECT THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 13S LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SSTS (30 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE WHOLE
FORECAST DURATION. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF
130 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING, REDUCING TC 13S TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.5S 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.9S 55.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.6S 57.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.2S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.6S 63.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.0S 67.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.8S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 54.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH
OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (IR) IMAGERY DEPICTS
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, AS AN EARLIER IR EYE FILLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE
THE POOR IR PRESENTATION, A 072150Z GCOM COLOR 36 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, SUGGESTIVE
OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY FIXES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS), AND ACCOUNTING FOR THE
CURRENT DEGRADATION OF THE CORE STRUCTURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 20
KNOTS AS A TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH, WHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY FAVORABLE 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.
GELENA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, FOLLOWING BEHIND TC 12S. DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TRACK MOTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, AT THE EXTENDED 96 TO 120
HOUR RANGE FORWARD TRACK SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE STEERING
RIDGE RECEDES EQUATORWARD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION TO THE
120 TO 130 KNOT RANGE IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PERSISTENTLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONSTRAINED, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING. GELENA
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z, AND 090300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 15.2S 54.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 54.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.5S 56.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.2S 58.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.7S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 21.1S 63.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.4S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.7S 71.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 55.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED, 20 NM WIDE, EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A 080600Z METEOSAT 8 VISIBLE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S HAS RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TC 13S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS
WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC 13S IS ALSO
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND
29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE
STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 96.
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
ALLOW TC 13S TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 140
KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 13S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY TAU 96, THE STR WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW TC 13S
TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,
090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 55.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 55.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.4S 57.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 19.0S 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 20.3S 62.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.4S 64.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.4S 67.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.2S 70.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.4S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 55.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
081241Z 36 GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE
FEATURE. THE 081241Z 36 GHZ COLOR MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A CYAN
RING, WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION. A
081004Z 36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
INDICATING THAT TC 13S MAY BE UNDER GOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. THEREFORE, THE INTENSITY HAS TEMPORARILY LEVELED OFF BUT TC
13S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 103 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 13S HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 13S IS ALSO EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 13S
IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE THROUGH TAU 96. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ALLOW TC 13S TO INTENSIFY,
REACHING A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 13S WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE AND
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT BEGINS TO DECREASE. BY TAU 96, THE STR WILL WEAKEN
AND ALLOW TC 13S TO TRACK MORE EASTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD TRACK.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES AT TAU 120 AS ECMWF DISSIPATES TC 13S WHILE GFS
AND NAVGEM SHOW THAT TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD. DESPITE
THE DIFFERENCES AT TAU 120, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 56.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 56.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.9S 58.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.4S 61.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.6S 63.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.6S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.4S 68.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.1S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.3S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 56.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING
SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND FORMATIVE SMALL
EYE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.5 (PGTW, FMEE)
TO 6.0 (KNES); HOWEVER, AN UNOFFICIAL PGTW FIX USING THE 081900Z EIR
IMAGE DEPICTS A SHORT-LIVED 13NM EYE AND YIELDS A 6.0 (115 KNOTS).
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS TO REFLECT
THIS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TREND. DESPITE SOME PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SST VALUES (29-30C).
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION WITH
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU 12. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 100NM AT TAU 72. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 57.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 57.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.3S 59.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.6S 61.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 20.7S 64.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.7S 65.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.2S 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 23.8S 72.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.0S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 57.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND A SMALL, OBLONG
EYE. A 082246Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A MIROWAVE EYE
FEATURE AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WITH SPIRAL BANDING. OVERALL, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 (102 KNOTS) TO 6.0 (115 KNOTS). DESPITE
SOME PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
SST VALUES (29-30C). THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS EXPECTED AT TAU
12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 105NM AT
TAU 72. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE
DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION.
THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 58.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 58.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 19.2S 61.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.5S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.8S 66.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.9S 67.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.1S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 23.9S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 24.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 59.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS
BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS). TC 13S IS TAPPING INTO A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH AND
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND FAVORABLE SST
VALUES (29-30C) ARE FUELING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN
EXPECTED PEAK AT 130 KTS AT TAU 12. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT AFTERWARDS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND
NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LEAVES TC 13S BEHIND.
AFTER TAU 72, ECMWF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, WHILE NAVGEM AND GFS
BRING THE TRACK SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; HOWEVER, ALL
MODELS AGREE ON A DUE EASTWARD TRACK AND SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS ONLY
150 NM. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 DUE TO
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. MESOSCALE MODEL
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IN THE NEAR TERM BUT STILL SHOWS
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARD, COAMPS-NAVGEM AND
HWRF MAINTAIN SYSTEM INTENSITY ABOVE 65 KTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VWS WILL REMAIN HIGH, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE
LIMITED BY UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TRACKING INTO DRIER AIR. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PERSISTENT MARGINAL TO UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 60.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 60.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.9S 63.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.2S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.4S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.3S 69.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.1S 72.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.9S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 24.4S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 61.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS ROBUST DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A
SMALL EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON
MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS),
AND A 090929Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 125 KTS. TC 13S IS TAPPING INTO A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-
15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SST VALUES ARE FAVORABLE (29-
30C) AND HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY FURTHER. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SOMEWHAT
AFTERWARDS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AND NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AS THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH LEAVES TC 13S BEHIND. SPREAD AT TAU 120 IS NOW
450NM DUE TO THE UKMET MODEL SHOWING SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER ALONG-
TRACK MOTION THAN OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE THE GALWEM SOLUTION
IS NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE AFTER TAU 12, WITH INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH MOVES
EASTWARD AND NO LONGER SUPPORTS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 12. MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MAINTAINING SIGNIFICANT
INTENSITIES AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH VWS WILL
REMAIN HIGH, DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE LIMITED BY UPPER-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING INTO DRIER AIR,
AND SSTS WILL BE CLOSE TO 26 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT
VALUES. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO MAINTAIN
WARNING CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE LENGTH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z,
100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 61.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 61.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.6S 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 21.8S 66.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 22.9S 67.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.8S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.2S 72.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 24.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 24.9S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 62.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH AN OBLONG CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE AND RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, A 091716Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A COMPACT CORE WITH A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.5 (102 KNOTS) TO 6.0 (115 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20
TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 160NM AT
TAU 72. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 63.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 63.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.3S 65.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.4S 67.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.4S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.0S 70.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.3S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 24.5S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 25.2S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 63.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE AND RAGGED EYE. HOWEVER, A 100039Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT CORE WITH A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20
TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM AT TAU 120. TC 13S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE
PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS
(OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION
SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S
(FUNANI) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW 092100).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 64.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 64.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.4S 66.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.6S 68.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.5S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.9S 71.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 24.7S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.2S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 27.4S 83.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 64.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 403 NM EAST
OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED, INTERMITTENT EYE
THAT IS OCCASIONALLY SUBSUMED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON INFLOW UNDER THE CDO IN THE MSI
LOOP AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A 100239Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS, BETWEEN
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND T5.0 (90 KTS) FROM FMEE, DUE TO THE INCONSISTENT STRUCTURE
AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A 100406Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 91 KTS. UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15 TO 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A SPREAD OF 125NM AT TAU 120. TC 13S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.
TC 13S WILL LOSE ITS FAVORABLE POLEWARD VENTING AFTER THE
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH MOVES FURTHER EAST. AFTER TAU 72,
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER
TAU 72, WHILE NAVGEM, GFS, AND GALWEM ALL MAINTAIN A HIGHER
INTENSITY AND TRACK THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, INCREASING VWS,
SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST TRACK, AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 12S (FUNANI) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 65.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 65.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 22.9S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.0S 69.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.6S 71.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.7S 72.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 24.8S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 26.1S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 29.2S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 66.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DEFORMING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
(CDO) FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON INFLOW UNDER THE CDO
IN THE MSI LOOP AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN A PARTIAL 101113Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 90
KTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FMEE AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KTS), BUT ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KTS). A 100909Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 88 KTS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE
SYSTEM HAS INCREASED TO 25 TO 30 KTS, LEADING TO THE OBSERVED
WEAKENING. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, WHICH WILL RECEDE
TO THE WEST AND ALLOW ANOTHER NER TO THE EAST TO BUILD IN AND BECOME
THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72
WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM AT TAU 120. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VWS AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 13S WILL LOSE ITS
FAVORABLE POLEWARD VENTING AFTER THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH
MOVES FURTHER EAST. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH
RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO
WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT. ECMWF DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 72, WHILE NAVGEM,
GFS, AND GALWEM ALL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A HIGHER INTENSITY AND
TRACK THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC
FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED CLOSE TO MESOSCALE MODEL AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VWS, SSTS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST TRACK, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z,
110900Z AND 111500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.2S 66.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 66.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.2S 68.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.1S 70.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.4S 72.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 24.5S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.0S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 26.7S 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 67.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC GELENA HAS STEADILY
WEAKENED WITH DECAYING CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 101654Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED YET LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A SPREAD OF 150NM AT TAU 96. TC 13S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND ORIENTATION. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH
MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD
WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
COOL SST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 23.1S 68.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 68.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.9S 69.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.5S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 24.8S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.9S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 25.3S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 27.4S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 68.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 623 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC GELENA HAS STEADILY
WEAKENED WITH DECAYING CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER, A 110016Z GMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS
BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO 4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A
SPREAD OF 115NM AT TAU 96. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE
TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU
72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND
ORIENTATION. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOL SST. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
110000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND
120300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 23.7S 69.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 69.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.7S 70.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.1S 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.1S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.1S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 29.0S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0S 69.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 686 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A NOW-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS,
IN THE MIDDLE OF A RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
T3.5 (55 KTS) TO T4.5 (77 KTS), BASED ON A 110407Z ASCAT PASS THAT
SHOWED 60 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE WITH HIGH (30 to 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96
WITH A SPREAD OF 180NM AT TAU 96. THE ECMWF SOLUTION DEPICTS SLOWER
ALONG-TRACK SPEED THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHILE NAVGEM AND
GFS ARE FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY
DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU
72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS TRACK
GUIDANCE DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH RESPECT TO TRACK SPEED AND
ORIENTATION. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE PRIMARILY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW EACH MODEL WEAKENS (OR FAILS TO WEAKEN) THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD WITHIN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. THE
JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOL SSTS, WHICH WILL DROP BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS AFTER TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 32
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 69.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 69.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.1S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.1S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.0S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.3S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 26.8S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 24.6S 70.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TUCKING BACK UNDER WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LLCC AND A
MICROWAVE EYE IN A 110854Z AMSR-2 36GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, IN THE MIDDLE OF A
RANGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T3.0 (45 KTS) TO
T4.5 (77 KTS). THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RETURNED AN ESTIMATE
OF T3.0 (45 KTS). WHILE THE LLCC TUCKED BACK UNDER CONVECTION IN THE
PAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS CONTINUED TO WARM AND THE PREVIOUS CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE BLEW APART INTO SPIRAL BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH HIGH (30 TO 35 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALTHOUGH EASTWARD OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND
SUSTAINING MARGINAL CONVECTION. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. TC 13S IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO SUSTAINED HIGH VWS AND UPPER-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES. TC 13S
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL CROSS THE
26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL INTENSITIES AT LATER TAUS. THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE SYSTEM STEADILY, WHILE NAVGEM
AND GFS MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A LONGER PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A
DISSIPATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES, HIGH VWS, AND COOL SSTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z,
120900Z AND 121500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 71.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 71.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 25.8S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 25.8S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.8S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.4S 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.8S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 72.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 838 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC BEGINNING TO PEAK OUT FROM THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND
SUPPORTED BY A 111656Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
RELATIVELY LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CONTINUES TO COME DOWN, NOW ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN LIGHT OF A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY VWS IS INCREASING, DECOUPLING THE LLCC FROM
FLARING CONVECTION. THOUGH THE STORM MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE
SHEAR VECTOR, THE HIGH (30-40 KNOTS) VWS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS ROBUST HOWEVER, WHICH IS ALLOWING THE CONVECTION TO
OCCASIONALLY FLARE. SSTS ARE MARGINAL AT AROUND 27 CELSIUS. TC
13S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER) NEAR 10 DEG NORTH. AS THE NER REORIENTS, THE TRACK OF TC 13S
WILL FLATTEN TO MORE EASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. THEREAFTER AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) BUILDING ALONG AN AXIS FROM DIEGO GARCIA TO NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 13S IS FORECAST
TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AS VWS INCREASES
AND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS,
DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z,
121500Z AND 122100Z.//
=======================================================================WTXS32 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 25.4S 72.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 72.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.5S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.7S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z POSITION NEAR 25.4S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 904 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC THAT
IS PERIODICALLY TUCKING UNDER FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
EVIDENT AT THE ANALYSIS TIME, SUPPORTED BY A 112216Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT DEPICTS A CLEAR MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 TO 45 KNOTS), SUPPORTED BY AN
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTALLY, TC
13S LIES IN AN UNFAVORABLE AREA, WITH STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS) VWS,
AND ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SSTS (26 CELSIUS), HOWEVER THESE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD, IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR
VECTOR, LEADING TO REDUCED RELATIVE SHEAR, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE
OUTFLOW, IS ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO FLARE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
THE LLCC TO TUCK BACK UNDER IT. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH.
THE NER IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR THE TRACK OF TC 13S
TO FLATTEN OUT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS STEERING SHIFTS TO
A DEVELOPING STR NORTHWEST OF AUSTRALIA. THE WEAKENING TREND, BROUGHT
ON BY THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS WILL
CONTINUE AND ULTIMATELY COMBINE TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM,
LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z,
121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 26.0S 73.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 73.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 26.1S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 26.2S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 26.5S 78.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.1S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 73.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 961 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED
EASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 120455Z 25-KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING
MULTIPLE 50-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN RIMS OF
THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (GREATER THAN 25
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE REMNANT CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT
27 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, AS STRONG VWS
PERSISTS AND SSTS DECREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 25.6S 74.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 74.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 25.6S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.9S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.4S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.3S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 74.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 990 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) AND ITS ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED
EASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A FAINT MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE
121046Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
THAT IS OFFSET BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH WITH UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING
VENTILATION TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27 CELSIUS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL IT
DISSIPATES BY TAU 48, POSSIBLY SOONER, AS STRONG VWS PERSISTS AND
SSTS DECREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z./
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 25.5S 75.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 085 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.5S 75.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.9S 78.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.6S 81.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.4S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 31.5S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1114 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
A SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED EASTWARD BECOMING SLIGHTLY
LESS ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE FROM A 121721Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A LARGE
SWATH OF 50 KNOT WIND BARBS THROUGHOUT THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THAT IS OFFSET BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27
CELSIUS, HOWEVER, CURRENT TRACK TAKES 13S OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST UNTIL CURVING SOUTHEASTWARD AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AT 48 HOURS AS VWS
INCREASES AND SSTS DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED
TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 25.2S 76.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 76.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 25.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.1S 80.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.0S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 28.4S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 32.9S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 25.3S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 2093 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A
122216Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE MSI. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR FROM THE WEST CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY STORM MOTION
THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE FLARING
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, CURRENT TRACK
TAKES 13S OVER COOLER WATERS BEYOND TAU 24. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AT
TAU 24, AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AT TAU 48 AS VWS INCREASES AND SSTS DROP OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z,
132100Z AND 140300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 77.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 77.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 25.9S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 26.7S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 27.8S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 29.6S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 33.9S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 25.5S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1114 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A CLOUD-FILLED BUT WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION
SHEARED EASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A STORM MOTION IN-PHASE WITH
WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS
PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE FLARING CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27 CELSIUS.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU
24, SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BECOMES THE
PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD THE
VWS IS EXPECTED INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 25.8S 78.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.8S 78.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 26.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.5S 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 30.8S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 79.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1193 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A
RUGGED, CLOUD-FILLED, BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
THE BULK OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED EASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE MSI
LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 131033Z 37GHZ
SSMIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS
OFFSET BY A STORM MOTION IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AT 27 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 24, SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. AS
THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS
TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,
140900Z AND 141500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 26.4S 79.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.4S 79.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 27.5S 82.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 28.6S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.1S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 26.7S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1907 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION. A
131659Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, A 131700Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS SYMMETRIC
CIRCULATION WITH 40-45 KNOTS WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 2.5-3.5 (35-55KTS).
ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
AT 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, HOWEVER, THE TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY DROP
OFF TO 21 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 48. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 26.9S 81.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S 81.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 27.9S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.2S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.2S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1822 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION. A
132316Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED OFF
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-3.5 (45-
55KTS). ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE DROPPED
BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TO 22 DEGREES
CELSIUS BY TAU 36. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL
DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 27.5S 83.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 83.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 29.1S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.0S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.7S 91.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9S 84.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1383 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 26
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS. A
140304Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-3.5 (45-
55KTS). A 140305Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS SEVERAL RAIN-FLAGGED 50 KT WIND
BARBS, BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE.
TC 13S IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGH (25-40 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND TROUGHING
ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 24, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES POLEWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE,
LEADING TO WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO RECENT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 28.2S 85.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 85.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 29.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 32.0S 91.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 86.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1474 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO WARM AND
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL. A 141218Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE BANDS SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AND
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC CENTER IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS PLACED BELOW MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) DUE TO THE DIMINISHED CONVECTION. TC 13S
IS LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS, HIGH (25-40 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND TROUGHING
ALOFT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
WHILE CONTINUALLY WEAKENING. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES POLEWARD, VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, LEADING TO WEAKENING AND
EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
DUE TO RECENT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED ALONG-TRACK SPEED. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.//
========================================================================
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 036
WTXS32 PGTW 142100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 28.9S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 30.7S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 32.5S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 29.4S 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1479 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (GELENA) WARNING NR 037
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 29.3S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 29.3S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 31.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 29.7S 89.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (GELENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1426 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WITH MODERATE BAROCLINICITY.
ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT AMSU CROSS SECTION DEPICTS A COLD TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A
WEAK FRONTAL STRUCTURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A PGTW SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE (USING
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD) OF ST2.5 (35 TO 40 KTS). ALONG TRACK SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS BY TAU 12. THE SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 1
TO 2 DAYS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 14
FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_gelena_jtwc_advisories.htm
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