Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KENANGA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KENANGA Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 92.5E TO 11.5S 88.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 91.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 92.8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 91.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 428 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 131920Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS21 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132051Z DEC 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
132100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3S 92.0E TO 12.3S 92.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 92.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1S
92.8E IS NOW LOCATED 8.1S 92.2E, APPROXIMATELY 364.5 NM NORTHWEST OF
COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE
AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR TC DEVELOPMENT AT 28C-30C. ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 35 KNOT WINDS OR MORE WITHIN 24
HOURS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
152100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 142051DEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 8.9S 91.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 91.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 9.6S 91.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.9S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.1S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.2S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.1S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.9S 84.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.3S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 91.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1116 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 151500Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH
30 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, AND AREAS OF 35 KT WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 06S IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS LIMITING ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS
IN TO THE REGION. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN FLIRT WITH THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AS IT
MOVES DUE WESTWARD INTO DRIER AIR, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
DECREASE, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-NAVGEM,
WITH 320NM OF MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 96 NOT COUNTING COAMPS-NAVGEM, AND
SOME VARIATION IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BEHIND AND SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE NEAR-TERM, TOWARDS THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS, TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOW CURRENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z,
161500Z AND 162100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 142100).//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 9.1S 91.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.1S 91.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 10.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.3S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.4S 88.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.4S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 14.9S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 15.6S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.0S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 91.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1123 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE FLARING
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252119Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS
IN EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED EIR
IMAGERY AND THE EXTRAPOLATED 152119Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KTS, SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5
(35 KTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE. TC 06S IS BENEFITING FROM
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 DEGREES CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH HIGH AND BUILDING (20-30 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LIMITING ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
SEPARATING THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS
IN TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUALLY
PREDICTED THE TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, WHICH HAS NOT YET BEEN
REALIZED. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT TAU 48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN APPROACH THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AS IT MOVES DUE
WESTWARD INTO DRIER AIR, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DECREASE, LEADING
TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-NAVGEM AND COAMPS-GFS WHICH
DIVERGE DUE WEST AFTER TAU 72. THERE IS 157 NM OF SPREAD BETWEEN
MODEL TRACKERS AT TAU 72, AND SIGNIFICANT VARIATION IN ALONG-TRACK
SPEED. GFS IS NOW ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS,
BUT WITH A FASTER ALONG-TRACK SPEED. ECMWF IS JUST NORTH OF
CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND ALSO PREDICTS A
FASTER ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE NAVGEM AND GALWEM MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS
HEDGED BEHIND AND EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK IN THE
NEAR-TERM DUE TO SLOW OBSERVED SOUTHEASTWARD CURRENT MOTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 9.7S 90.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 90.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 10.7S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.9S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.9S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.8S 86.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.1S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 15.7S 83.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.1S 81.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 90.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1097 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, BROAD SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 160308Z MHS
89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THE
MSI, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITING OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, TC KENANGA WILL TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 36,
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE WITH COOLER SST AND WEAKER
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENTRAINS COOLER, DRIER
AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 90.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 90.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 11.3S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.4S 87.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.4S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.3S 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 15.9S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 90.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1082 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161232Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITING OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO THE OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, TC KENANGA WILL TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 36 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48,
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE WITH COOLER SST AND WEAKER
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT LEADING TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENTRAINS COOLER, DRIER
AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 12.2S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.3S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.1S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.9S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.7S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.9S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 88.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 992 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK BUT HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LOW
CHANNEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 161511Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTERWARD,
THE TC WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SECONDARY BUILDING STR. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 70
KNOTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER
SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING VWS AND BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA
WILL BE REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 87.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 87.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 13.5S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 14.4S 84.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.2S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.1S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.6S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 953 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT BUT
MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 162259Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T3.0-T3.7. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN
MORE WESTWARD AS SECONDARY BUILDING STR ASSUMES STEERING. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING
VWS AND BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 87.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 13.4S 85.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4S 84.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.8S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.3S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 76.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 86.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 927 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 170241Z GMI COMPOSITE IMAGE
SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITING
OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5
(55 KNOTS) FROM KNES. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, TC KENANGA WILL TURN
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48 TO A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ENTRAINS COOLER, DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
170600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND
180900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 86.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 86.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 13.4S 84.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.3S 83.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.0S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.5S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 15.9S 80.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.4S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 86.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE
WITH A FORMATIVE EYE. A 170944Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A COMPACT
SYSTEM WITH CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN OBLONG MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITING OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON
AN AVERGAE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 (55
KNOTS) TO T4.0 (65 KNOTS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 72, TC KENANGA
WILL TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06S SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH
TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS. AFTER TAU 72, CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ENTRAINS COOLER, DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z,
180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.0S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.9S 83.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 14.8S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 81.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 15.8S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 15.8S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.1S 78.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.6S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 85.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 840 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH
SIGNIFICANT SPIRAL RAIN BANDS IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 171557Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS A CLEAR
CENTER AND THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVELS ARE OVERALL FAVORABLE
WITH DECENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVERCOMING
MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 06S WILL TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
AS IT FOLLOWS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CONSTANTLY RE-ORIENTING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 06S MAY
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A SECOND
TROPICAL CYCLONE (CURRENTLY 92S) TO THE WEST. DESPITE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING WITH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE BECAUSE THE SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE WITH THE UNCERTAIN
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DCI LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TC 06S SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER GENERALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 13.6S 84.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 84.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 14.5S 83.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.4S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 15.9S 81.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.1S 81.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.2S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.6S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.2S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ANIMATED
IMAGERY REVEALED BRIEF PERIODS WHERE AN EYE APPEARED TO BE FORMING,
ONLY TO BE OBSCURED AGAIN A FRAME OR TWO LATER. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 172235Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING EYEWALL. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-T4.5 (65-77 KTS). TC 06S
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 06S MAY
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A SECOND,
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (CURRENTLY 92S) TO THE WEST. TC 06S
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. DESPITE GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BECAUSE THE
SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DCI LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 84.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 84.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.9S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.5S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.2S 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.0S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 83.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT AND SYMMETRIC AS IT
DEVELOPED AN OCCLUDED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
OCCLUDED EYE IN THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR
TO THE SOUTH ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD
AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU
72. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAUS 12-24 TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER
DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE
REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
SOME SPREADING AFTER TAU 48 TO A SPAN OF OVER 300 NM BY TAU 120. IN
VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP
TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 15.7S 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.2S 82.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5S 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.7S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.5S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 83.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC
AND ANNULAR AS IT DEVELOPED A DEFINED 40-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW
AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36
ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL
ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY, A DEVELOPING CYCLONE
(92S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC 06S FOR POSSIBLE BINARY
INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION. IN THE NEAR
TERM, TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND
INCREASING VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 50
KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
SPREADING AFTER TAU 48 TO A SPAN OF OVER 180 NM BY TAU 120. IN VIEW
OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK UP TO
TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 181200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND
191500Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.1S 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.5S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.6S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.4S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.6S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.5S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.7S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 83.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH SHOWS THE ANNULAR TC HAS A ROUND, 44-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0 (90
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LIGHT (10-15
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, THE ORIENTATION OF THIS STR WILL DICTATE THE TRACK,
STEERING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, WESTWARD BETWEEN
TAU 36 AND 72, AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AGAIN BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 120.
AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ANOTHER CYCLONE (CURRENTLY
92S) MAY APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR BINARY INTERACTION TO INFLUENCE
THE TRACK. CONSISTENT WITH TYPICAL ANNULAR CYCLONES, THE INTENSITY
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND BEGINS. BY TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE MOST
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE GUIDANCE
WITH NAVGEM, GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TURNING LESS SHARPLY
WESTWARD THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE MORE WESTWARD ATTRACTOR WHICH
INCLUDES THE ECMWF, GALWEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. DESPITE
THE BIFURCATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
BECAUSE THE SPREAD IS ONLY 250 NM BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z,
190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 82.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 82.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.3S 82.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.5S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.9S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.8S 76.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.9S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 82.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 799 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING A LARGE, 43NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO
115 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.0 TO T6.5. NO
RECENT SATCON IS AVAILABLE, HOWEVER, AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ALSO
SUPPORTS THE 115 KNOT ASSESSMENT. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LIGHT (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, 26-27 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.
TC 06S HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST. THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN
OUT AND BECOME MORE WESTWARD AROUND TAU 24 AS RIDGING BUILDS IN TO
THE SOUTH OF TRACK. SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION SHOULD RESUME AFTER TAU 72
AS THAT AREA OF RIDGING MOVES EASTWARD. AROUND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, CYCLONE 07S MAY APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH FOR BINARY
INTERACTION TO INFLUENCE THE TRACK. DESPITE OVERALL FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, KENANGA IS LIKELY AT OR NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS SST
SUPPORT WEAKENS. BY TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY. THE MOST RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE GUIDANCE WITH
NAVGEM, GFS, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN TURNING LESS SHARPLY WESTWARD
THAN THE OTHER MEMBERS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE MORE WESTWARD GROUPING WHICH INCLUDES THE
ECMWF, GALWEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE BI-FURCATION
SCENARIO AND INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF BINARY INTERACTION IS
DECREASING THE JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE, NOW ASSESSED AS LOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 82.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 82.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 16.6S 82.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.7S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.6S 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 17.1S 78.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.8S 77.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 82.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 806 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL SYMMETRIC AND ANNULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AND A DEFINED EYE, NOW AT 35 NM DIAMETER. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T6.5. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
RELATIVE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN
MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL ALSO RECEDE EASTWARD AND ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 48.
CONCURRENTLY, ANOTHER CYCLONE (TC 07S) WILL BE WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC
06S FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT MAY INTRODUCE A SLOW
ERRATIC MOTION. TC 06S APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AND WILL NOW SLOWLY
WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING VWS AND,
BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO A SPAN OF 200
NM BY TAU 120 WITH HWRF THE NOTABLE LEFT OF TRACK OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF
THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.7S 81.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.7S 81.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.6S 80.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.8S 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.4S 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.4S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.7S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 82.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 805 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NOW INDICATIONS OF ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. TC 06S HAS ALSO MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE, NOW AT 25 NM
DIAMETER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE
EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP PERFECTLY WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
191058Z SSMIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T5.5 TO T6.5.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
CYCLONE SHOULD NOW TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ASSUMES STEERING. THIS NEW STR WILL ALSO RECEDE
EASTWARD AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REVERT TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
AFTER TAU 48. CONCURRENTLY, ANOTHER CYCLONE (TC 07S) WILL BE WITHIN
PROXIMITY OF TC 06S FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT MAY
INTRODUCE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION. TC 06S HAS PEAKED AND WILL NOW
SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER SST, WEAKER DIFFLUENCE, AND INCREASING
VWS AND, BY TAU 120, TC KENANGA WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO A SPAN
OF OVER 270 NM BY TAU 120 WITH HWRF THE NOTABLE LEFT OF TRACK
OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 44
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.5S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.8S 79.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.8S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.9S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.6S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 81.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
ROBUST EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN INCREASINGLY RAGGED 13 NM DIAMETER
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE
FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS), AND IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 191514Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 107 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG, WELL-DEFINED POLAR AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AS TC 06S IS
PARALLELING THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM TO ITS SOUTH. TC 06S IS
TRACKING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AFTER
TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION, CAUSING THE
STR TO RECEDE EASTWARD AND ALLOWING TC 06S TO TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENTLY, ANOTHER CYCLONE (TC 07S) WILL BE TRACKING
WITHIN PROXIMITY OF TC 06S FOR A POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION THAT
MAY INTRODUCE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION AT LATER TAUS. TC 06S HAS PEAKED
IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOW SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS,
WEAKENING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING VWS. TC 06S IS PREDICTED TO
WEAKEN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY AT LATER TAUS, WITH A SPREAD OF 260 NM AT TAU
120. ALL MODELS PORTRAY A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT VARY IN THE
SHARPNESS AND DEGREE OF RECURVE. ECMWF IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER NORTH OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS TC 06S MUCH FURTHER WEST, WHILE
HWRF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 16.6S 81.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.8S 79.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.5S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.4S 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.1S 75.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A ROBUST EYEWALL SURROUNDING AN INCREASINGLY
DISORGANIZED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110
KTS IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KTS) BUT TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE INCREASING EYE
DISORGANIZATION, AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 192012Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
100 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG, WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, AS
TC 06S IS PARALLELING THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM TO ITS SOUTH.
TC 06S IS TRACKING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION. AFTER TAU 48, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION,
CAUSING THE STR TO REORIENT EASTWARD AND ALLOWING TC 06S TO TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENTLY, TC 07S TO THE WEST WILL BE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF TC 06S.
MODEL GUIDANCE CURRENTLY DOES NOT PORTRAY ANY DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. TC 06S WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS, WEAKENING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND INCREASING
VWS. TC 06S IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN TO 35 KTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT, ESPECIALLY AT LATER TAUS, WITH
A SPREAD OF 300 NM AT TAU 120. ALL MODELS PORTRAY A TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST, BUT VARY IN THE SHARPNESS AND DEGREE OF RECURVATURE. ECMWF
IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BRINGS TC 06S MUCH FURTHER WEST, WHILE HWRF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.5S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.5S 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.6S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.9S 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.7S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.8S 75.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.2S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 200329Z ASCAT
PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS
REPORTING AGENCIES AS WELL AS A RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 99 KNOTS. TC 06S HAS WEAKENED STEADILY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, JUST ABOVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.
FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY
STEERING INFLUENCE. STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE UNDER ONGOING
INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS OF BOTH
TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE
MODELS DEPICT STEADY WEAKENING AND A TRACK THAT IS MORE CONSISTENT
WITH THE EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN THE LARGE
MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RATE OF EXPECTED
WEAKENING, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
(CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 16.6S 81.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 81.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.5S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.7S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 17.1S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.9S 76.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.1S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.5S 73.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 81.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 773 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND WITH THE LOSS OF THE EYE AND
SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED CORE CONVECTION. A 201102Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF EYEWALL
CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER END
OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO
5.5 (102 KNOTS), CONSISTENT WITH A CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS.
TC 06S HAS SLOWED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM TRANSITIONS TO A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
STEADILY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE.
STEADY WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE ONGOING INFLUENCE OF
MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER
WATER, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW 35 KNOTS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS OF BOTH
TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DEPICT STEADY WEAKENING AND A
TRACK THAT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE RATE OF EXPECTED WEAKENING, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.1S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.3S 78.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.7S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.5S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 20.4S 73.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 80.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE (200NM DIAMETER) CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST REGION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 202157Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTING SLIGHTLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF
EYEWALL CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 (77 TO
90 KNOTS). TC 06S HAS SLOWED AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM HAS
TRANSITIONED TO A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 06S IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK STEADILY WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNDER THE ONGOING INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER, WITH DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS
OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, BUT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TERMS
OF BOTH TRACK SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK LIES
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED BETWEEN
THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE MODELS DEPICT
STEADY WEAKENING AND A TRACK THAT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
EXPECTED LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD
AND UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE RATE OF EXPECTED WEAKENING, CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z,
212100Z AND 220300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS
(WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 80.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 80.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 16.2S 79.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.5S 78.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.0S 76.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.6S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.8S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 79.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 701 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A 210341Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.5
(55/77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF NAVGEM, WHICH INDICATES A SHARP POLEWARD TURN, THE BULK OF THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 130NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TC KENANGA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES (26C). THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
TC 07S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 79.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 79.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 16.2S 78.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.6S 77.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.1S 76.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.7S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.2S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 79.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 672 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A 211032Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE
CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS.
TC 06S IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-
ORIENTS TO THE EAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH INDICATES A
SHARP POLEWARD TURN, THE BULK OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 90NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, THEREFORE,
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TC
KENANGA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT,
UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES (26C).
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS WITHIN
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF TC 07S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z
AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 16.2S 78.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 78.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 16.6S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.1S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 17.7S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.3S 74.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.0S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 78.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 659 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUAL DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE BUT THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS BEING OBSCURED BY CIRRUS
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 211612Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
CORRECTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR TILT THAT WAS
EVIDENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 55 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5 (55 KTS). TC 06S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST. NAVGEM, GFS, AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A SHARPER TURN POLEWARD THAN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK, WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE REMAINING NUMERICAL
MODELS (ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM). THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS
TO ALIGN WITH THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM CLUSTER. TC 06S WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, UPPER-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MARGINAL (26C-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS INTO THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF TC 07S. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
211800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND
222100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 16.5S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 16.9S 77.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.5S 76.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 18.3S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 19.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 78.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 662 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 212012Z AMSR2
36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A BROAD LLCC. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND
KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 (45 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, DESPITE LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, DUE TO MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 06S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE
EAST. TC 06S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN STEADILY DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND MARGINAL SSTS UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 48 AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD TC 07S. SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS 140 NM AT TAU
48, LENDING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 17.0S 78.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 78.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 17.6S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.5S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 19.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 78.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 687 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY WERE DERIVED FROM A 220428Z 25-KM RESOLUTION
ASCAT DIRECT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. TC 06S HAS REACHED AN AREA OF
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND,
COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SYSTEM LEADING
TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, MORE THAN LIKELY, SOONER. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (KENANGA) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 17.2S 77.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 77.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.9S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 77.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE GREATLY WEAKENED CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED AT
LEAST 70 NM EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THIS IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE 221019Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT SHOWS AN
EXPOSED AND RAGGED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC KENANGA WILL CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND INFLUX OF COLD BAROCLINIC AIR. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 9 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (CILIDA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
=========================================================================
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_kenanga_jtwc_advisories.htm
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