Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KENNETH : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KENNETH Track Map and Data |
WTXS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421ZAPR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.0S 50.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 50.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.2S 49.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.5S 47.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.8S 45.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.0S 43.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.4S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 11.6S 39.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 11.0S 38.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 50.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE COMPACT AND
SYMMETRIC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A BROAD CENTER
IDENTIFIED IN A 221840Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS AND SUPPORTED BY A
222335Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
LARGE SWATH OF 25KT WIND BARBS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH
LIMITED 30 TO 35 KT BARBS CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT UNDER
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE
ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW
AND KNES. DESPITE THE 30 KNOT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT, THE FIRST
WARNING FOR TC 24S IS BEING ISSUED AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TC 24S IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15 KNOT) ALONG TRACK SHEAR,
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) AND A MODERATE
POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER
NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS BEYOND TAU 72, DUE TO A 200 NM SPREAD AMONG THE
CONSENSUS. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THEREAFTER. UKMET, NAVGEM AND THE
GFS ENSEMBLE TAKE A SLOWER, MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK TO DRAW TC 24S
TOWARDS A TROUGH APROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC TRACK IS
SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE CONSENSUS MEAN, FAVORING THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER MOZAMBIQUE AND TANZANIA
BY TAU 120. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY
DUE TO THE POSSIBLE RECURVE SCENARIO BACK ACROSS THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 221430).//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 10.3S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.6S 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.9S 46.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.1S 44.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.3S 42.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 11.5S 40.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 11.5S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 10.7S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 49.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (TWENTYFOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 727 NM
NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP
SYMMETRICALLY AROUND A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMING THE
EARLY STAGES OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 230545Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWING AN AREA OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.
TOGETHER WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW AND KNES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS. TC 24S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS), AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH, FOLLOWED BY LANDFALL IN MOZAMBIQUE IN APPROXIMATELY 72 HOURS.
GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
48, WITH THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS,
THE GFS TOWARD THE CENTER, AND THE NAVGEM BEING THE SOUTHERNMOST
OUTLIER. BEYOND TAU 48 TO 72, THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
THE ECMWF, GFS, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH AFTER LANDFALL, WHEREAS THE REST OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM
TO THE SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK, WITH A
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AROUND LANDFALL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF TC 24S,
TOGETHER WITH THE CURRENT STATE OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WAS RAISED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST WARNING.
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED BY TAU 48. A
PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO LIKELY, SUGGESTING THAT THE
PEAK INTENSITY COULD POTENTIALLY BE EXCEEDED IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 10.6S 48.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 48.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.8S 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.0S 44.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.3S 42.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.7S 41.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.4S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.9S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 48.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 703 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW,
AND AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND A 231042Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS),
BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
AND A 231004Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS
ALSO SUPPORTIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE STEERING THE CYCLONE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER MOZAMBIQUE
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 90 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, IT
APPEARS THAT DIMINISHED OUTFLOW AND SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN
MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE RUGGED TOPOGRAPHY IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER MEMBERS,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL.
AFTER LANDFALL, THE BULK OF THE TRACKERS TURN TC 24S SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE STR AND SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN BEFORE THEY LOSE
THE CIRCULATION. SOME MEMBERS DO TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BACK
TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, WHICH SUGGESTS THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
IS HEDGED NORTH OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE IMPACT FROM NAVGEM WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 232100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 004 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 10.7S 47.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 47.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.9S 45.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.2S 43.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5S 41.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.9S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.2S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 47.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 269 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AS THE SYSTEM BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC AND
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK FORMATIVE EYE HAS
BECOME APPARENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE,
LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 231541Z GPM 36GHZ
COLORIZED IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND
T4.0/60KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 30C. TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 48. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL, WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO 70NM BY
TAU 72, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE
COMPASS DIRECTION IN REMARKS LINE 3 AND LANDFALL AREA IN REMARKS LINE
19.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 10.7S 46.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 46.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.0S 44.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.3S 42.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.7S 40.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.1S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.5S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 46.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 197 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 232158Z ATMS PASS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT)
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) MITIGATED BY THE STORM MOTION IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 30C. TC 24S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, MAKING
LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE NEAR TAU 42. THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PEAKING AT 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND
INTERACTION, ESPECIALLY AFTER LANDFALL, WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING
AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING UP TO 48,
AFTERWARD, MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY LOSE THE WEAK VORTEX.
IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
UP TO TAU 48 ONLY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.9S 45.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 45.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.2S 43.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5S 41.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.8S 40.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.3S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 12.9S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 45.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, THE MSI LOOP SUGGESTS AN EYE MAY REVEAL ITSELF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI LOOP AND BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM AN EYE
FEATURE IN A 240313Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE PGTW/KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) BASED ON A 240347Z
CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 80 KTS. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A BREAK IN THE STR AS IT DISSIPATES BY
TAU 72. THROUGH TAU 24, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KTS BEFORE LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z,
242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 11.1S 44.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 44.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.4S 42.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.7S 40.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.1S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 43.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING AND OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 241156Z
SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75
KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK FIXES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF
INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 100 KTS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WITH THE
EXPECTATION THAT AN EYE WILL DEVELOP IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. JUST
PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE COAST, SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO WRAP IN TOWARD THE
CENTER. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TC 24S IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.2S 43.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2S 43.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5S 41.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.9S 40.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.2S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.4S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 42.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM
NORTH OF COMOROS ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A NEW EYE AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
FIXES OF T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES DUE TO THE EMERGENT EYE.
HOWEVER, IT IS A COMPACT SYSTEM. THE 241800Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH,
REPORTED WINDS RISING, CURRENTLY AT 36 KTS, AND PRESSURE FALLING,
CURRENTLY AT 1000MB. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEAR TERM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
24S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING TO 110 KTS IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS UNDER CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 18. TC 24S WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
MAKES LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE COAST. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE
FLAT TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND CONTINUED LOW VWS MAY ALLOW
THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER LAND. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE THE CURRENT DOMINANT STEERING
STR TO RE-ORIENT AND ALLOW ANOTHER STR TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
MAY PUSH THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU 96-120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. GUIDANCE AFTER
THE FORECAST PERIOD DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME MODELS LOOPING
THEN RECURVING TC 24S TO THE NORTHEAST AND RE-EMERGING OVER WATER,
SOME MODELS MOVING TC 24S NORTHWARD BUT REMAINING OVER LAND, AND
UKMET TURNING TC 24S TO THE SOUTH BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.3S 42.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 42.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.6S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.8S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.2S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.7S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 42.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTHWEST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PERSISTENT PINHOLE EYE AND STRONG
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON THE 242345Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0, BUT BELOW THE PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS). A 242231Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 120
KTS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 250000Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH, REPORTED A PEAK
SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KTS AND LOWEST PRESSURE OF 998MB AT 242000Z.
THE 250000Z OBSERVATION HAS WEAKENED TO 26 KTS SUSTAINED WIND AND
1002MB. LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEAR TERM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
24S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48.
HOWEVER, THE FLAT TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND CONTINUED LOW
VWS MAY ALLOW THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER LAND. A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE THE CURRENT
DOMINANT STEERING STR TO RE-ORIENT AND ALLOW ANOTHER STR TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW THAT MAY PUSH THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU
96-120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE
NEAR TERM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
GUIDANCE AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME
MODELS LOOPING THEN RECURVING TC 24S TO THE NORTHEAST AND RE-
EMERGING OVER WATER, SOME MODELS MOVING TC 24S NORTHWARD BUT
REMAINING OVER LAND, AND UKMET AND GALWEM TURNING TC 24S TO THE
SOUTH BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 41.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 41.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.9S 40.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.2S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.5S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 12.9S 39.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 41.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
WEST OF COMOROS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 24S HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 55 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FROM 70 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 8NM EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE. A
250643Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5
(127 KNOTS) FROM BOTH KNES AND PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED
NEAR TAU 12. TC 24S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST
TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DRIFT WITH RAPID
WEAKENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK
BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S
(LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 12.1S 40.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 40.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.3S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.6S 39.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.9S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.2S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 40.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST OF COMOROS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MAKE
LANDFALL OVER NORTHEAST MOZAMBIQUE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS RETAINED
A 12NM EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH EXCELLENT
CONFIDENCE. A 251030Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5/6.5 (102/127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES, AND A 6.0/6.5 (115/127 KNOTS) FROM FMEE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH.
TC 24S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS TO
THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD
DRIFT WITH RAPID WEAKENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT THE
SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24
AS REFLECTED IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 40.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 40.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.5S 39.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.8S 38.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.0S 38.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 39.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRASTIC WEAKENING, WARMING, AND
SHRINKING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF TC 24S. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON TURNING IN THE EIR LOOP, WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 251557Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A SMALL BALL OF REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER LAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 75 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID DISSOLUTION OF
CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE OVER LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH MODERATE BUT WEAKENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WILL DOMINATE AND QUICKLY WEAKEN TC 24S. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH TAU
24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD DRIFT WHILE STILL OVER LAND. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME, AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN WALKING TOWARDS THE WEST, FAVORING THE
REMNANTS OF TC 24S STAYING OVER LAND FOR LONGER. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24
AS REFLECTED IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_kenneth_jtwc_advisories.htm
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