Updated: 17 June 2020
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[Index] | Tropical Cyclone LORNA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS22 PGTW 222300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421Z APR 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 221430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0S 80.7E TO 9.3S 84.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.5S
81.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S
79.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 81.1E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
STRONG CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, AND TWO FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND NORTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (27-29C)
SSTS AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS) THAT DECREASES TO THE SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH SOME SPREAD DUE TO VARYING DEGREES OF INTERACTION
WITH A SMALLER CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODEL TIMING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF 35KT WINDS RANGES FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 51.3E (WTXS21 PGTW 221430).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230551ZAPR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 8.6S 81.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6S 81.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 9.6S 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.2S 83.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.1S 83.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.0S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.5S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.5S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.2S 91.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 82.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW FRAMES
OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 231047Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH SMALL TRACK
SHIFTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO CHANGES IN THE STR ORIENTATION. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 70 KTS OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER TAU
72, TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AND VWS
INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD ACROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT
BUT THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LONG TERM WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 230600).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 9.5S 82.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5S 82.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.4S 83.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.2S 84.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.0S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.8S 85.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.1S 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.5S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 82.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPED
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE OBSCURED. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE EXTRAPOLATED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 10.5S 83.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5S 83.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.3S 84.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 12.0S 84.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.7S 85.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.3S 86.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.0S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.0S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.3S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7S 83.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH
FRAGMENTED, ALBEIT FORMATIVE, BANDS WRAPPED INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT REMAINS OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A RAGGED LLC IN THE 232154Z SSMIS 37GHZ
COLORIZED IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CONDUCIVE AT 31C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL AROUND TAU 96. AFTERWARD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE THE TC SOUTHWARD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK
OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
WILL TRIGGER A WEAKENING PHASE AND BY TAU 120, TC 25S WILL BE REDUCED
TO 50 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48
BEFORE SPREADING TO OVER 300NM BY TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE NEAR- TO MID-TERM AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 10.7S 84.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 84.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.3S 84.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.1S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.7S 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.4S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.2S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.3S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.9S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 84.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH
SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ELONGATED AND UNDER A
THIN CIRRUS SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES
BASED ON A 240313Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KTS. MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. TC 25S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY TAU 72, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CAUSE THE TRACK TO
TURN POLEWARD AND EVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 120. THE MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SLOW, STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN
FAIRLY RAPIDLY. AROUND TAU 72-96, TC 25S MAY BEGIN INTERACTING AND
MERGE WITH ANOTHER TC TO THE EAST (CURRENTLY 92S). ADDITIONALLY, BY
TAU 120, TC 25S SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DUE
TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, INTERACTION WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION, DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK, WHICH LIES VERY NEAR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.3S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.0S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.7S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.5S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.9S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 84.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 743 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF,
AND OBSCURING, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY FOLLOWING LOW LEVEL RAIN
BANDS AND THE CURVATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN A 241128Z SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS AVERAGED
BETWEEN PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES DVORAK FIXES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS).
THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 25S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. BY TAU 72, THE TRACK
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST TAKES
OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. ADDITIONALLY, A DEVELOPING
CIRCULATION (92S) TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND POSSIBLY
MERGE WITH TC 25S, ADDING MORE COMPLEXITY TO THE TRACK FORECAST.
REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST, VWS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KTS
BY TAU 72 IS EXPECTED. AFTER TAU 72, HIGH VWS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
TC 25S TO WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS DEPICT A POLEWARD
TRACK BUT, DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF INFLUENCE
ON THE TRACK FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED STEERING INFLUENCES, THERE IS
WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE UKMET AND GALWEM ARE
ON THE EASTERN EDGE. THE REMAINING MEMBERS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
NEAR THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING
OVER 700 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 120 AND THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 10.3S 84.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 84.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.5S 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.2S 85.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.0S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.4S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.2S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 20.2S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.6S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 84.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 743 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF,
AND OBSCURING, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AMBIGUITIES FROM A
241616Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST,
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES DVORAK FIXES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-
45 KTS) AND SUPPORTED BY THE ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 25S IS TRACKING SLOWLY IN AN AMBIGUOUS
STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH ERODES THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, A
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION (92S) ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH TC 25S, ADDING MORE
COMPLEXITY TO THE TRACK FORECAST. VWS IS EXPECTED TO ABATE IN THE
NEAR TERM, ALLOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KTS BY TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, HIGH VWS AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE TC 25S TO WEAKEN STEADILY. BY TAU 120, INTERACTION WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL TRACKERS DEPICT A
POLEWARD TRACK BUT THERE IS WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MODELS AFTER TAU
48 DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ARE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER IN ALONG-TRACK MOTION, WHILE UKMET AND GALWEM
ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS. THE ECMWF TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, BUT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AT LATER TAUS. BASED ON
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING OVER 600 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 120 AND THE
COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 10.8S 85.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 85.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.4S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.2S 86.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.4S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.1S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.0S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 22.1S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.2S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 10.9S 85.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 773 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 10.6S 85.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6S 85.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.3S 86.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 12.3S 86.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.7S 87.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.2S 88.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.5S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.9S 90.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.3S 92.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 85.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN AREA OF PERSISTENT, ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250347Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 250322Z ASCAT-B
BULLSEYE AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AS
WELL AS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25S IS EXPECTED
TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN STEADY WEAKENING
AFTER TAU 36. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG
VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 10.8S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.6S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.8S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.2S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.8S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.1S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.7S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251020Z SSMIS 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO T3.5 (55 KNOTS).
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36 THEN STEADY
WEAKENING AFTER TAU 36. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS VERY
STRONG VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 10.9S 86.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9S 86.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 11.9S 87.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.2S 88.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.6S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.2S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.2S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.9S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 27.0S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 86.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT AN EXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251554Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATED AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED THE
IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND CONVECTION, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PGTW, FIMP,
AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) AND
ABOVE THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS), WHILE A 251553Z SATCON
ESTIMATE IS 61 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH
IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 25S
IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 75 KNOTS
BY TAU 24, THEN STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS INCREASES AND
THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH REGARD TO THE TROUGH
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT
GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS
VERY STRONG VWS. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU
48. IN PARTICULAR, THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE THE FAR
WESTERN OUTLIERS, A TRACK THAT MOVES UNREALISTICALLY AGAINST THE
APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER TAUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 87.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 87.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.2S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.7S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.9S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.9S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.2S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
315 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.8S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 87.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 892 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPANDING BUT RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 252129Z
SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW REFLECTIVITY FORMATIVE
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, UPON WHICH THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, IT IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE
THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PGTW, FIMP, AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65
KTS) AND ABOVE THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), WHILE A 251940Z
SATCON ESTIMATE IS 64 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.
TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS IT
TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24, THEN STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS
INCREASES AND THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS FAVORABLE ORIENTATION WITH REGARD
TO THE TROUGH AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU
96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST, AND
ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG VWS. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z,
262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 11.3S 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 12.2S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.7S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.0S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.3S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.6S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 23.2S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 87.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 918 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A
260327Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CORE OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND WEAK SPIRAL BANDING.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 260328Z ASCAT-A
AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND FMEE, AND SATCON ESTIMATES OF 64-65 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS BY TAU 24 THEN
STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72
AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS
OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z,
262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(KENNETH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 88.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 88.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.1S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.1S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.8S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.5S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 88.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST
OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 261006Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ASYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED, PRIMARILY, OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.0 (55 TO 65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET
BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD, VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THEREFORE, 25S SHOULD INTENSIFY
SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, TC 25S SHOULD
STEADILY WEAKEN. TC 25S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 72 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL
CHARACTERISTICS, TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG
VWS. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU
48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) FINAL WARNING (WTXS31 PGTW).//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 89.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 89.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.2S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.8S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 18.4S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.9S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.1S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.6S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 89.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFIED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND DEVELOPED A
FORMATIVE EYE THAT INVARIABLY BECAME OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM THE FORMATIVE
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND SATCON. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MITIGATED BY A
STORM MOTION THAT IS IN PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ALONG TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), FOR NOW, ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29C. TC
25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE
STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, BY TAU 72, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
WILL DIG IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE STR AND REVERSE THE
TRACK TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75
KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION
BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY, TC LORNA WILL UNDERGO EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 72 AND WILL TRANSFORM INTO A COLD-CORE LOW BY TAU
96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND
272100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 89.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 89.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.1S 90.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.2S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.6S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 89.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE
SIGNATURE AND A FORMATIVE EYE THAT INVARIABLY BECAME OBSCURED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED
MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 262246Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MITIGATED BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN
PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE AT 29C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 36, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
THE OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A MODEST
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL
WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 14.4S 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.4S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.9S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.6S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.5S 88.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
270306Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-
28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS
TO BE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND THERE ARE ABOUT 12 HOURS WHERE THE SYSTEM CAN
INTENSIFY BEFORE HIGH VWS AND COOL SST WILL CAUSE STEADY, FAIRLY
RAPID WEAKENING. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT DISSIPATES. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BUT THE TAU 72
SPREAD IS OVER 250 NM. BASED ON THE HIGH SPREAD, THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 29 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.9S 89.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.4S 89.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.0S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.8S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.1S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 501 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS ELONGATED OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN A 271123Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS), SLIGHTLY ABOVE CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATES
THAT ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MODERATE TO
STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS OFFSETTING EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST,
TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AFTER TAU 12, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASING HOSTILE,
OWING TO HIGH VWS AND COOL SST. AS A RESULT, THE INTENSITY WILL
DECREASE, SLOWLY AT FIRST, THEN MORE RAPIDLY. DISSIPATION IS
ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS TC 25S BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 16.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.3S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.9S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 21.6S 88.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS
EVIDENCED BY ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND WARMING CENTRAL
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON A 271540Z ASCAT 25-KM RESOLUTION TIGHT BULLSEYE PASS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
HIGH (25 KNOTS AND INCREASING) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED TO 27C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO 12 HOURS. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING
PHASE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 89.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 89.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.7S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.4S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.1S 88.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.1S 88.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 89.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS
EVIDENCED BY ELONGATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK AND WARMING CENTRAL
CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED
FROM DEFINED LLCS IN THE 272235Z AMSU AND 272035Z SSMI 37GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS TO REFLECT THE CONVECTIVE DECAY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25 KNOTS
AND INCREASING) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE AT 27C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
AFTER TAU 12, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE
CYCLONE ON A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. INCREASING VWS AND
COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 16.8S 89.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 89.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.5S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 20.2S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.1S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.2S 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 30.9S 92.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 89.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DESPITE BEING ASYMMETRIC DUE TO
SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THE SYSTEM HAS A 10 NM WIDE
EYE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION OWING TO THE
EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THE POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A 280246Z MHS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS).
MODERATE (10-15 KT) VWS, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE, BUT THAT IS LIKELY SHORT-LIVED. TC 25S IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
BY TAU 48, TC 25S WILL BE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR AXIS AND
BEGIN ACCELERATING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BASED ON THE
RECENT SPIKE IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE EYE FORMING, THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY HAS SHIFTED FROM A DISSIPATION SCENARIO TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) SCENARIO. BY TAU 36, INTERACTION WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF ETT, WITH COMPLETION
EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOL
SST AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 18.2S 90.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 90.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.2S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.0S 89.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.0S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 27.0S 90.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 89.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 538 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED, THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED, AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) IS SIGNIFICANTLY ELONGATING THE CLOUD SIGNATURE. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 281116Z GMI 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN EYE FEATURE. DESPITE THE DECAY IN THE
CLOUD PATTERN, THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KTS. THIS INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KTS). MODERATE (20-25 KT) VWS AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ARE OFFSETTING EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND TAU 24, INTERACTION
WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) TO BEGIN. BY TAU 48, ETT WILL BE COMPLETE. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 90.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 90.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 21.3S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 23.3S 90.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.5S 90.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 28.5S 91.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 90.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ELONGATE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK, AN INDICATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CENTRAL
CLOUD TOPS ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
STRONG AND RAIN BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE
FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT HAS SINCE BECOME OBSCURED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/75KTS FROM PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25
KNOTS PLUS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE AT 26C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY. AFTERWARD, A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW A
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 48, TC LORNA WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ALSO
TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, ERODING THE CYCLONE TO 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 48, POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 20.0S 89.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 89.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.8S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.9S 89.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 89.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 622 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ELONGATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS BECOME OFFSET SOUTHWARD OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) AND
HAS BEGUN TO RAPIDLY COLLAPSE AND DISPERSE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXPOSED, RAGGED, BUT WELL
DEFINED LLC FEATURES IN THE 282330Z SSMIS AND 290036Z GPM MICROWAVE
IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING
DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 290000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 89.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 89.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.7S 88.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.7S 89.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 89.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS IDENTIFIED USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO TRACK THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THIS IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
THE COMPLETE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KTS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KTS) BASED ON A 290340Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD
AREA OF 50 KT WINDS, PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGH. HIGH (45-50 KT) VWS AND
UNFAVORABLE (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE OVERWHELMING
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24, IF
NOT SOONER. UNTIL THEN, TC 25S WILL TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BASED ON EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT
AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 21.7S 88.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 88.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 23.5S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 88.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 738 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH NO
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS). THERE IS LIKELY STRONGER WINDS ON THE SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION, ENHANCED BY THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY HOSTILE WITH EXTREMELY HIGH (50-60
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND COOL (24-25
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 25S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
POLEWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12, UNDER CONTINUED HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BASED ON THE SHORT DURATION OF THE
FORECAST AND HIGH AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMIC MODELS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 20 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_lorna_jtwc_advisories.htm
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