Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone OMA : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone OMA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 112100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0S 163.1E TO 16.8S 169.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 160.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 111706Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING EXPANSIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. 96P LIES IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE (30-40 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BUT GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING CONVECTION AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS BRIEFLY QUASI- STATIONARY BEFORE MAKING A LOOP OVER VANUATU AND MOVING ON A SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 122100Z.// ======================================================================== 001 NOT AVAILABLE ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 120900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 13.7S 164.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 164.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.7S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 13.9S 165.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.3S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.8S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.5S 167.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.7S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 20.1S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 165.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE EXPOSED FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LINING UP WITH A RAGGED LLC FEATURE IN THE 120533Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 24, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 72, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN THE NEAR-TERM: GFS AND HWRF OFFER A SHARP REVERSAL BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND GALWEM OFFERS THE WIDEST EASTWARD TURN. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 165.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 165.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.0S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.3S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.7S 166.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.4S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.3S 167.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.2S 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 20.4S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 165.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 289 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LINING UP WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 121038Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW, NFFN, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 35 BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS: ECMF AND GALWEM OFFER A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND HWRF OFFERS THE WIDEST EASTWARD TURN, A POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY CYCLONE (92P) APPROACHING FROM THE EAST. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID JUST WEST OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET HWRF. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 122100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 14.0S 166.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 166.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.2S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.6S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.1S 167.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.9S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.5S 166.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.6S 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 20.1S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 166.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM THE TIP OF THE CONVECTION SEEN WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST IN THE 121910Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 12, A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAUS 24-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 166.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 166.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.6S 166.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.0S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.6S 167.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 16.3S 167.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.1S 166.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 19.3S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.3S 163.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 166.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWESTWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE FROM MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (30-35 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 36, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-36. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL TRACK CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INCREASE SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 130900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.8S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.3S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.0S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.7S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.4S 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.6S 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.3S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 165.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, DISORGANIZED SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD AND SPLIT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BY TRACING THE EXPOSED FORMATIVE BANDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND LINING UP WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC FEATURE IN THE 122218Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS LODGED IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST THAT IS POISED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THEN, AFTER TAU 48, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS AT TAUS 12-24. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN THE NEAR-TERM: GALWEM AND HWRF OFFER A CONTINUED REVERSE MOTION BEFORE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AND THE REST AT VARYING ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 14.0S 165.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 165.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.3S 165.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.8S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.4S 166.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.1S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.4S 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 20.6S 162.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 165.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM THAT HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN WITH THE BULK OF ITS CONVECTION OFFSET WESTWARD OF AND SPLIT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE 131050Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS SHOWING NUMEROUS 50- TO 55-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY A ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A QUASI-STATIONARY/LOOPING MOTION IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. THE STR IS POISED TO ASSUME STEERING AND DRIVE TC 15P SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 36, SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW CALEDONIA. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AND COOLING SSTS, IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH VWS, WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH STARK DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MEMBERS IN THE NEAR-TERM: HWRF OFFERS A WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 24 AND THE REST HAVE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AND AT VARYING ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 132100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.2S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.7S 166.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 16.2S 166.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.9S 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.7S 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 19.0S 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 20.8S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 132100Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15P IS CLASSIFIED AS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF APPROXIMATELY 560NM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 131857Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND ITS TRACK REFLECTING THE QUASISTATIONARY NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR VALUES HAVE DECREASED DOWN TO 15- 20KTS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO 10-15KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 131050Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50-55KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0-4.0 (45-65KTS). THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. SYSTEM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 14.7S 165.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S 165.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.1S 165.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.6S 166.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.2S 166.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.7S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.6S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.9S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.7S 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 14.8S 165.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 242 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 15P IS CLASSIFIED AS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH A DIAMETER OF APPROXIMATELY 530NM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 132156Z METOP-A MHS 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WHICH PROVIDES FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS WEAK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 25- 30KTS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 15-20KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED OFF OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5-4.0 (55-65KTS). ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT SMAP IMAGE INDICATES 50-55KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.1S 165.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.5S 165.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0S 165.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.2S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.8S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.5S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.4S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 140516Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING AND THE LLCC TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 140516Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). A 140733Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS HIGHER, AT 66 KTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT OUTFLOW IS WEAK IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR V(VWS) VALUES ARE HIGH (25- 30 KTS), HINDERING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, LEADING TO A MEANDERING, QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS AN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER STR OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID- LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE STR EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH, AND RE-ORIENT THE STR TO THE EAST, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS TC 15P MOVES POLEWARD. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 165.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 165.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.8S 165.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 16.1S 164.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.4S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.6S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.7S 163.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.6S 162.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 21.2S 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SHIELD OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH MOST CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. A 141028Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS CURVED BANDING, THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEFINITIVELY DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE AND UPPER LEVEL ROTATION IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS). THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES T3.8 (61 KTS) AT 141340Z. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 28- 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST IS PROVIDING FOR GOOD WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, BUT OUTFLOW IS WEAK IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE HIGH (25- 30 KTS), HINDERING NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING ECMWF, GALWEM, AND THE UKMET, SHOW A KINK IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE SETTLING THE SYSTEM ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, WHILE OTHER MODELS PREDICT AN ACCELERATING SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FROM THE ONSET. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD AT THE SAME TIME THAT AN EXTENSION OF ANOTHER STR OVER AUSTRALIA FORMS TO THE SOUTH OF TC 15P. AFTER TAU 72, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE STR EXTENSION TO THE SOUTH, AND RE-ORIENT THE STR TO THE EAST, LEADING TO THE SYSTEM TAKING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATING. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO IMPROVE AS TC 15P MOVES POLEWARD AND IS ABLE TO TAP INTO THE PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 48, REACHING A PEAK OF 75 KTS AT TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 165.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 15.7S 165.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0S 164.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.2S 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.5S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.8S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.6S 162.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.5S 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 165.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING CYCLONICALLY OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 141628Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED BUT DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH PROVIDES IMPROVED CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 25-30KTS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 20-25KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55KTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK ORIENTATION AND TIMING OF THE RECURVE TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 15.1S 165.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S 165.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.3S 164.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.5S 164.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 18.1S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.2S 161.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.7S 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 165.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED CENTER. A 142246Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 55-60KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL CONDUCIVE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS STILL SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SHEAR VALUES ARE CURRENTLY AT 20-25KTS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO 15-20KTS AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.5 (55KTS) TO 4.0 (65KTS), AND A 142243Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 62 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING AN ERRATIC, QUASISTATIONARY TRACK MOTION. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL FORECAST TRACK, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 165.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 165.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 15.1S 164.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.3S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.5S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.0S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.2S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.9S 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.1S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A DEVELOPING LOW- LEVEL EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN 150503Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 15P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 20-25 KNOTS, HAS RESTRAINED THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 15P IS MOVING SLOWLY WITHIN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT, AND THIS SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE NEAR-TERM. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM, MOVING TC 15P ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BY TAU 48. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS NEAR-TERM MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET THE POSITIVE INFLUENCE OF AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS THAT INCLUDES THE ECMWF, UKMET AND GALWEM GLOBAL MODELS. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.5S 164.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.7S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.9S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.8S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 19.0S 162.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.5S 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.8S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 164.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A DEVELOPING RAGGED EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151008Z ASCAT PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 15P HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. HOWEVER, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CURRENTLY ASSESSED AT 15-20 KNOTS, HAS RESTRAINED THE INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 15P HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALTHOUGH FORWARD TRANSLATIONAL SPEED WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLOW DUE TO COMPETING STEERING INFLUENCES. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM AFTER TAU 36, PUSHING THE SYSTEM ON A MORE RAPID, POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED AS NEAR-TERM MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOLLOWED BY COOLING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET THE POSITIVE INFLUENCE OF AN IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL STEERING SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN TRACK DIRECTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THE PREVIOUS TWO JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS AND A GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS THAT INCLUDES THE A MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.7S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.0S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.4S 163.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.2S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.3S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 20.6S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 21.8S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RELATIVELY RAGGED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SEQUENCE OF HIGH RESOLUTION 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 151548Z AND 151815Z, EACH DEPICTING A LOWER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE SLIGHTLY DECOUPLED FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC SIGNATURE AT THE UPPER-LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 151542Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 15P LIES IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE AREA, WITH MODERATE VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SSTS. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS STOPPED, DUE TO SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION, AND THE OFFSETTING OF THE OUTFLOW BY VWS. TC 15P IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK AND COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. DURING THIS PERIOD, INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STAGNANT AS COOLER UPWELLED WATERS AND VWS CONTINUE TO OFFSET ROBUST OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 36, A STR BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST AND RIDGES SOUTHWESTWARD LEADING TC 15P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST AND OVER WARMER WATERS, VWS ALSO WEAKENS, ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION PEAKING AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 96. THEREAFTER EXPECT A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS APPROACH 27 CELSIUS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREEING ON THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 36 AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WIDENS IN THE LATER TAUS HOWEVER, WITH A 320 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS NAVGEM AND GFS AT TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND CLOSE THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD IN LATER TAUS THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 163.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 163.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.6S 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.9S 163.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.7S 163.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.7S 162.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 20.0S 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.3S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.4S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 163.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI- SPECTRAL DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH CONVECTION SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED INFRARED LOOP. NO MICROWAVE IMAGES WERE AVAILABLE SO THE POSITION WAS PLACED TO THE EAST OF MID-LEVEL TURNING BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATION OF DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER BASED ON A 160040Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 72 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT TC 15P IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE OVER ALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. TC OMA IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSING SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOW, GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASES, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AROUND TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THE WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING SLOW SPEED THROUGH TAU 24 AND SUBSEQUENT ACCELERATION SOUTHWEST AFTER THIS POINT. BEYOND TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE, REACHING A SPREAD OF OVER 300NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS BASED ON THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, AND THE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.5S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.1S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.0S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.9S 163.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.0S 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.5S 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.2S 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 164.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME GENERALLY MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED INTO SYMMETRICAL BANDS. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED BY HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 160455Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC, WHICH HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER-LEVELS SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS, AND IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A KNES CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS), A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE THAT WAS LOCATED TO THE EAST, NOW SETTLING IN NEARLY DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF REDUCING THE VWS, WHILE ALSO IMPROVING RADIAL OUTFLOW, COMBINING TO EFFECT THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER, THESE POSITIVE FACTORS ARE BEING OFFSET BY THE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD TRANSLATION, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR THE UPWELLING OF MUCH COOLER WATERS, RESULTING IN A STEADY INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. THE CURRENT MOTION IS A VERY SLOW TWO KNOTS, OR QUASI-STATIONARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN A COL REGION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WHILE MAINTAINING INTENSITY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSETTING ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. BEYOND TAU 24, A DEVELOPING STR TO THE EAST WILL SERVE TO EJECT TC 15P ONTO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND ALLOWING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER WATERS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT BEGINS TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TAU 36, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 24. THERE IS HOWEVER A SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECASTS AFTER TAU 48, WITH THE NAVGEM MODEL TURNING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST BY TAU 120, AND THE GFS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SYSTEM AND TURNING TC 15P SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK. OVERALL DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.6S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.2S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.3S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.4S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.3S 161.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 21.9S 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.8S 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED, WITH STRONG BANDING FEATURES FORMING AND WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 161056Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS, IS HEDGED ON THE UPPER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND NFFN, AND A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 161240Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 69 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA OF WARM (28- 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW LOCATED OVERTOP OF THE LLCC PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. DESPITE THE ENVIRONMENT BEING GENERALLY FAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS CAUSING THE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS THE RESULT OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 12, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTHEAST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER WARMER WATERS AND INTENSIFYING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO PEAK OF 90 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AS IT DEVELOPS A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND VWS INCREASES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOWING THE SLOW INITIAL MOVEMENT FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER TAU 12. AFTER TAU 48, MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE EVENTUALLY SPREADING TO OVER 400 MILES BY TAU 120. THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IS NAVGEM, WITH A SOLUTION THAT TRACKS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE INITIAL QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OF THE SYSTEM, COMBINED WITH THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 164.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 164.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.7S 164.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.6S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.8S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.0S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 20.9S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.4S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 24.4S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 164.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 161803Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CI ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 63 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). THE EAST TO WEST SHEAR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND ENHANCING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 15P ALSO HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 15P IS DRIFTING EASTWARD AS A RESULT OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALLOW TC 15P TO BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AS TC 15P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. BY TAU 24 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE, ALLOWING FOR TC 15P TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 164.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 164.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.1S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.3S 163.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.5S 163.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.6S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.6S 161.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.4S 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.6S 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 164.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 162204Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITY IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). THE EAST TO WEST SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND ENHANCE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLCC. TC 15P CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 15P REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY AND HAS DRIFTED SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RESULT OF A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND ALLOW TC 15P TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AS TC 15P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 18, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE, ALLOWING TC 15P TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY, EVENTUALLY REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF ONLY 58 NM. HOWEVER, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BY TAU 120 WITH A SPREAD OF NEARLY 510 NM. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 16.1S 164.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 164.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.1S 164.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 18.4S 163.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.7S 163.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.9S 162.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 22.9S 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 25.4S 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 29.6S 163.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 164.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE TC WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIRCULATION IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 170437Z 37GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28 CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TC 15P HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD FROM A COL AREA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSUMED STEERING. AFTER TAU 96, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. AT THAT STAGE, TC OMA WILL ALSO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 164.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 164.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 17.2S 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.4S 163.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.8S 162.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.9S 162.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.9S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 25.8S 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 30.3S 164.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 164.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC OMA HAS, FOR THE MOST PART, MAINTAINED ITS EXPANSIVE FEEDER BANDS WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE, RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE LLC IN THE 171034Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND T4.0/65KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG EQUATORWARD BIAS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 27-28 CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15P WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD. VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND ALLOW A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120, TC OMA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, AFTERWARD THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY. ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER IS ECMWF THAT TRACKS THE VORTEX DUE WESTWARD AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 16.6S 164.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 164.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.3S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 18.5S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.0S 162.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.2S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.9S 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 25.7S 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 30.3S 165.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 164.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED SYSTEM, WITH AN EXPOSED LLCC AND POCKETS OF FLARING BUT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, AND SUPPORTED BY A 171727Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO SHOWED THE GENERALLY WEAK NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE NEARBY. HOWEVER, A DAY AND A HALF OF QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT HAS LED TO SIGNIFICANT UPWELLING AND THE DEVELOPMENT A LARGE COOL POCKET OF SSTS (AS LOW AS 24 CELSIUS) AROUND THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO THE DOWNTREND IN INTENSITY. TC 15P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STR. DURING THIS PERIOD, AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COLD POOL INTO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS AND BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, EXPECT IT TO INTENSIFY STEADILY, REACHING A PEAK OF 80 KNOTS AT TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR AXIS AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 DUE TO COMBINED INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF, WHICH REMAINS THE SINGLE OUTLIER TAKING THE TRACK WEST TOWARDS THE AUSTRALIAN COAST BEYOND TAU 72, LEADING TO A 700 NM SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE HISTORICALLY WELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 180300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 17.3S 164.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 164.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 18.3S 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.4S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.5S 162.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.7S 161.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.5S 161.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 26.7S 162.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 30.9S 166.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 163.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 NM WEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A WEAKENED SYSTEM WITH WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A VERY BROAD PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT WARNING TIME TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, BUT IS GROWING IN EXTENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND SUPPORTED BY A 172214Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED AGAIN TO A GENEROUS 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN OVERALL ANALYSIS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES, PHFO AND NFFN AND T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE SHOWED T2.9 (39 KNOTS) WHILE A SATCON ESTIMATE INDICATED 52 KNOTS AT 1720000Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE AREA, WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE ONLY INHIBITOR AT THE CURRENT TIME IS THE SST, WHICH IS STILL RELATIVELY COOL (24-25 CELSIUS) DUE TO UPWELLING. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE COOL UPWELLED POOL, SSTS WILL INCREASE TO 27-28 CELSIUS AND SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF SAMOA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE MOVES WEST OF FIJI AND REORIENTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL PUSH TC 15P ONTO A SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OUT INTO WARMER WATERS, IT IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY, REACHING A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND VWS CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 120 AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH TAU 48, WITH ONLY THE NAVGEM AND ECMF SOLUTIONS DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY, LYING TO THE WEST OF THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. BEYOND TAU 72, THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE SPEED OF ADVANCE AFTER THE TURN SOUTHEAST. ECMWF AND NAVGEM HOWEVER SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST, AWAY FROM THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE, LEADING TO A 850NM SPREAD BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE LATER TAUS THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 163.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 163.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 19.3S 162.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 20.4S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 21.3S 161.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 22.1S 161.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.7S 160.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 26.2S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.9S 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 163.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO UNRAVEL AND WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS AND EXPANDING FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE MAINTAINED A RAGGED BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN A POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 24-25 CELSIUS, A RESULT OF TC-INDUCED UPWELLING. THE NET ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT IS WEAKENING INTENSITY. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY, AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. NOTABLE OUTLIERS INCLUDE NAVGEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A 180 DEGREE EQUATORWARD TRACK REVERSAL AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 18.5S 163.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S 163.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 19.5S 162.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.4S 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.1S 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 24.0S 160.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 26.3S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 29.0S 164.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 162.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 274 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO RE-CONSOLIDATE AS RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER TOWARD A BROAD AND RAGGED, BUT DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE TC REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE LLC FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE LLC FEATURE IN THE 181044Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 181014Z 25KM RESOLUTION PARTIAL PASS THAT SHOWS NUMEROUS 50-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT OF A POOL OF RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND IS NOW TRACKING OVER 26-27 CELSIUS SSTS. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN ERODE THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 45 KNOTS BY END OF FORECAST. CONCURRENTLY, AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48 THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. NOTABLE OUTLIERS INCLUDE NAVGEM TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A 180 DEGREE EQUATORWARD TRACK REVERSAL AFTER TAU 72. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 028 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 19.0S 162.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 162.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 19.8S 162.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 20.6S 161.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 22.2S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 24.3S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 27.3S 161.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 28.1S 165.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 162.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE TC REMAINS EXPANSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 181717Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND KNES 4.5 (77 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 60 KNOTS, GIVEN THE RAGGED NATURE OF THE LARGE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL A MODEST INTENSIFICATION THAT WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS A STORM-FORCE COLD- CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 162.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 162.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 20.5S 161.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.3S 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.1S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.3S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 25.3S 158.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 26.9S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.8S 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 162.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS CONVECTION INTENSIFIES AND RAIN BANDS WRAP INTO A RAGGED EYE FEATURE SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 182303Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF PGTW 4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND KNES 5.0 (90 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 75 KNOTS AS IT ENTERS A PHASE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE PERSISTANTLY RAGGED STRUCTURE OF THE EYE AND CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 15P IS UNDER LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS PARTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER FAVORABLE (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE ALONG AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMING SSTS AND INCREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL FUEL AN INTENSIFICATION TO 85 KTS AT TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO 50 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AROUND TAU 96, TC 15P WILL BEGIN EXTRA- TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 120 WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AS A STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48, BUT SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION BEYOND TAU 72. SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS INCLUDE THE ECMI, WHICH INDICATES A TRACK OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA AND EGRI, WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM FAR TO THE EAST. THUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 030 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 20.0S 162.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S 162.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 20.9S 161.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.6S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.3S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.3S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.5S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.8S 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 25.7S 161.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 161.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 257 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 190551Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 191500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 031 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 162.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 162.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 21.3S 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.0S 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.9S 160.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.9S 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.9S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.5S 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 25.6S 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 20.8S 161.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191132Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST, NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 26C). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 032 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 21.1S 161.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 161.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 21.7S 160.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.4S 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.2S 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 24.2S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.0S 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.1S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 26.0S 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 161.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 606 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED EYE. A 191705Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 4.5 TO 5.0 (77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY). UPPER- LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 033 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 21.4S 161.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 161.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 22.0S 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.7S 159.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.6S 159.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.8S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 26.3S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 26.5S 159.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.3S 160.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 21.6S 161.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 582 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEGRADING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE, RAGGED AND POORLY STRUCTURED EYE. A 192243Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND IN THE STORM STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT TAU 72, THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME QUASISTATIONARY IN A MORE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND HIGHER SHEAR CAUSING IT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE A WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST RECURVATURE AFTER TAU 72 WHILE THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MEMBERS INDICATE AN EASTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 034 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 21.5S 161.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S 161.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 22.2S 160.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.9S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.8S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.9S 158.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.1S 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 25.9S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 25.3S 160.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 160.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 286 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LARGE (ABOUT 40 TO 45NM DIAMETER) RAGGED EYE. A 200537Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 70 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 4.0/4.5 (65/77 KNOTS). TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26 TO 27C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER NEW ZEALAND. THIS ALLOWS THE STR TO QUICKLY BUILD SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS AND, POTENTIALLY, A PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS DUE TO THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS DEGRADE WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL, CONVERGENT WESTERLIES, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND POTENTIALLY DISSIPATION NEAR TAU 120. DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AFTER TAU 72, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TRACK EQUATORWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201200Z --- NEAR 21.9S 160.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 160.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 22.6S 160.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.3S 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 24.2S 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 25.2S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 25.2S 156.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 310 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 24.1S 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 22.7S 155.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 201500Z POSITION NEAR 22.1S 160.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECAYING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 201111Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A BROAD, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5/4.0 (55/65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO. TC 15P CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DESPITE GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (26C) WITH A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THEREFORE, IT IS LIKELY THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. TC 15P WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND POSSIBLE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 72 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 036 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 22.1S 160.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 160.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 22.8S 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 23.6S 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.7S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 25.0S 157.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.7S 157.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 23.7S 156.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 22.6S 155.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 160.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 529 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE. A 201652Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED AN EXCELLENT VIEW OF THE LOWER LEVEL EYE FEATURE, AND PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 61 KNOTS. TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE DUE TO MARGINAL SSTS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE 26 CELSIUS AND THE LARGE NATURE OF THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION. TC 15P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF FIJI. THIS SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH THE WILL SLOW AND BEGIN TRACKING WEST AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. BY TAU 72, THIS RIDGE MOVES UP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA, DRIVING TC 15P ONTO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE LOW VWS AND STRONG OUTFLOW OFFSET THE COOL SSTS, WHICH WILL HOVER AROUND 26 CELSIUS. THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS COOL, DRY AND STABLE AIR BEGINS TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 037 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210000Z --- NEAR 22.5S 160.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 160.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 23.2S 159.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 23.9S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 24.7S 158.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 330 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 25.3S 157.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 24.8S 157.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 24.1S 156.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 23.4S 156.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 210300Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 159.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A VERY RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SUPPORTED BY A 202222Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 46 KNOTS AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (33 KNOTS). TC 15P IS RAPIDLY DECAYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF FIJI. WHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND COOL SSTS HOVERING AT OR JUST ABOVE 26 CELSIUS ARE COMBINING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AT ROUGHLY 4 TO 5 KNOTS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BEYOND TAU 48 A STRONG STR BUILDS IN OVER TASMANIA BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. TRAPPED BETWEEN THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, TC 15P BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER TAU 72, GENERALLY DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE OVER TASMANIA MOVES NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN EXPERIENCE A SHORT INTENSIFICATION PHASE BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS IT TAPS INTO A DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. THEREAFTER, INCREASED VWS COMBINED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, STABLE AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL SERVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED, WITH THE NAVGEM, EGRR AND GALWEM MODELS SHOWING A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 48, WITH NAVGEM BRINGING THE SYSTEM IN A BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE CENTRAL CORAL SEA BY TAU 120. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. EVEN HERE HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT, WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION TAKING THE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH TOWARDS CAIRNS BY TAU 120, WHILE GFS PERFORMS A CLOCKWISE LOOP BACK TO THE SOUTH ENDING UP EAST OF BRISBANE BY THE SAME TIME. IN LIGHT OF THE BIFURCATION AND EXTREME VARIANCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 210900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 038 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 159.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 159.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 24.3S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.3S 158.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 25.8S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.2S 158.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.0S 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 23.8S 158.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 23.6S 159.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING RAIN BANDS LEADNING TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LLC IN THE 210524Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND MARGINAL SSTS AT 26 CELSIUS ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE VWS AND OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINED INTENSITY. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND RESULT IN YET ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STORM MOTION. AFTER TAU 48, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING AS A RESULT OF THE QS MOTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL ACCELERATE THE DETERIORATION OF TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 039 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 24.1S 159.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S 159.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 25.1S 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 26.0S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 26.6S 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.4S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 255 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 25.3S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 159.6E. TROPICAL (TC) CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOPS ALONG THE FEEDER BANDS AND IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAVE WARMED; HOWEVER, A 211051Z ASCAT DIRECT PASS STILL SHOWS WIND BARBS UP TO 45 KNOTS IN THE IMMEDIATE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10 KNOT) VWS AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE CAUSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MARGINAL SSTS AT 26 CELSIUS ARE OFFSETTING THE FAVORABLE VWS AND OUTFLOW, RESULTING IN A WEAK ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, LEADING TO SUSTAINED INTENSITY AT BEST. TC OMA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND RESULT IN YET ANOTHER QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) STORM MOTION. CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SSTS TO DECREASE, EXACERBATED BY UPWELLING AS A RESULT OF THE QS MOTION. THIS COMBINATION WILL ACCELERATE THE DETERIORATION OF TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AFTER TAU 24 WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS HELD SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 212100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 040 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 159.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 159.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.8S 158.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 26.4S 158.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 215 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 26.8S 159.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.3S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 24.8S 159.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 159.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 376 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DETERIORATING SYSTEM WITH MINIMAL SHALLOW CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED LLCC. A 211640Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 25NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST VWS VECTOR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 15P LIES IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VWS, BEING OFFSET BY LOW (LESS THAN 26 CELSIUS) SSTS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST. TC 15P CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH, BLOCKING FURTHER SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT BEYOND TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEW STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INCREASING VWS AND MASS CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEST COMBINE TO ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER WATER BY TAU 72. ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS AGREE ON THE LIMITED SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT TURN TO THE NORTH, WITH VARIATIONS ON WHICH WAY THE TRACK WILL TURN (CLOCKWISE OR COUNTERCLOCKWISE). THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK LIES JUST INSIDE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, AND TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST THEN NORTH AS THIS SEEMS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, IN VIEW OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 041 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 25.7S 159.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.7S 159.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 26.8S 159.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 27.4S 159.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 26.9S 159.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 26.2S 160.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 23.7S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 26.0S 159.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 346 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 15P HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A DISTINCT DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND MID-LEVELS, EVIDENCED BY A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. A 212233Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE PLACEMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. WHILE A 212204Z ASCAT-A PASS INDICATED AN AREA OF 45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, THESE ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FLARE OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA AND NOT DIRECTLY INDICATIVE OF THE STORM INTENSITY. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD BAND OF 45 KNOT WINDS WAS PRESENT ABOUT 100NM TO THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT AGAIN THESE ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL STORM INTENSITY BUT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH GRADIENT FLOW. THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.5 (35 KNOTS) WHILE AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 2.4 (34 KNOTS) AT THE ANALYSIS TIME, ALL OF WHICH SUPPORT THE 40 KNOT INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH OFFSETTING FACTORS OF LOW VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW VERSUS COOL SSTS (25-26 CELSIUS), ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE AIR AND MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP, NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR CENTERED FAR TO THE EAST. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, TC 15P HAS STARTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A STRENGTHENING STR BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS RIDGE WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER POLEWARD MOVEMENT AND SHIFT THE TRACK OF TC 15P TO THE NORTH. AS THIS DEEP RIDGE BUILDS IN, BY TAU 36 IT BEGINS TO CHOKE OFF THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT THOUGH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE IN THE GENERAL SCENARIO WITH NAVGEM BEING THE SOLE REMAINING WESTWARD TURNING MODEL. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 042 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 27.0S 159.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S 159.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 27.6S 159.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.0S 160.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 27.5S 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.2S 160.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 27.2S 159.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 343 NM EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS RAIN BANDS UNRAVELED AND CENTRAL CONVECTION COLLAPSED, PARTLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE 220425Z SSMI IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT FOR NOW, ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 24, A SECONDARY STR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE EQUATORWARD. THE RESULTING QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION WILL RESULT IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 36, POSSIBLY SOONER, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING AND COOLING SSTS AS A RESULT OF QS UPWELLING WILL WEAKEN TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 043 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 27.7S 159.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 295 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 159.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 28.3S 160.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 28.0S 161.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 27.1S 161.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8S 160.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367 NM EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHEASTWARD OF THE LLC. RAIN BANDS CONTINUED TO UNRAVEL AND HAD BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP AND LINED UP WITH A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LLC FEATURE IN THE 221059Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30KTS TO T2.7/37KTS. TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT FOR NOW, ARE PARTLY OFFSET BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY TAU 12, A SECONDARY STR FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL COMPETE FOR STEERING AND SLOWLY TURN THE CYCLONE EQUATORWARD. THE RESULTING QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) MOTION WILL RESULT IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW AS THE SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING AND COOLING SSTS AS A RESULT OF QS UPWELLING WILL WEAKEN TC OMA, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH AN EVENTUAL EQUATORWARD TRACK BUT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DEGREE OF TURN AND ALONG TRACK SPEEDS. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 044 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 27.4S 160.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 255 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.4S 160.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 27.2S 162.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.4S 162.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 27.4S 161.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421 NM EAST OF BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM DEVOID OF CONVECTION AND A FULLY EXPOSED, BROAD AND DIFFUSE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 221832Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING WEAK RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 221039Z WHICH INDICATED A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P LIES IN A UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, LOW SSTS OF 26 CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, OFFSETTING THE CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS NOW TRACKING EASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED TO THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP RIDGE WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY, LEADING TO A FURTHER WEAKENINGM, WHICH COUPLED WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRY, STABLE AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH SOME VARIANCE IN THE WIDTH OF THE EQUATORWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.// ======================================================================== WTPS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA) WARNING NR 045 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 28.2S 161.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.2S 161.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 27.9S 162.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 161.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (OMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 357 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF KINGSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC. THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC HOWEVER THEY ARE LESS DEFINED THAN THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25 KNOTS) DUE TO THE 221039Z ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED 35-40 KNOT WIND BARBS. IN THE HOURS SINCE THE ASCAT PASS THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS, IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE, AND IS TRACKING THROUGH COOL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET BY A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT CONTINUES TO PREVENT A RAPID DISSIPATION TREND. TC 15P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AS STEERING HAS SHIFTED DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL CURVE EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE STR BUILDING IN WILL ALSO CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS PREVENTING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE. ADDITIONAL FACTORS INCLUDING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND SUSTAINED STRONG VWS WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EQUATORWARD TURN WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 19 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_oma_jtwc_advisories.htm
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