Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone PENNY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone PENNY Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 300030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.7S 144.7E TO 13.0S 138.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 144.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 144.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 144.4E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 292045Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP PERSISTING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND SEVERAL
AREAS OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE DISTURBANCE
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-
25 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW TWO SEPARATE SOLUTIONS. THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM TRACKING WEST INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, INTENSIFYING
QUICKLY, THEN TRACKING BACK EAST. THE LESS FAVORED SOLUTION SHOWS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUING WESTWARD BEFORE BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY AND
INTENSIFYING IN THE CORAL SEA BEFORE TRACKING EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
310030Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300021ZDEC2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 139.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 139.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 12.7S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.1S 141.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 13.5S 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.9S 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.0S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.8S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.3S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 139.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 436 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE WEIPA RADAR DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 302337Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 302036Z SMAP IMAGE
INDICATE 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS (PLUS SOME ISOLATED 40 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE WEST QUADRANT) SURROUNDING AN ELONGATED, WELL-DEFINED CENTER,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE KNES/PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) BASED ON THE ASCAT/SMAP DATA.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DECREASING VWS, VERY WARM (30-31C)
SST VALUES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO TC 08P MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES A SPIKE TO 55-60 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TWO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS TRIGGERED (RI25, RI30). THE JTWC
INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 55 KNOTS AT TAU 24 BUT COULD PEAK HIGHER
IF VWS DECREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE
CORAL SEA NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 96, A NORTH-
SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EAST OF THE
SYSTEM EFFECTIVELY HALTING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND PRODUCING A
SLOW TRACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE OVER THE CORAL SEA WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM,
THEREFORE, ONLY SLIGHT REINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY AROUND TAU 72 TO
TAU 96. DUE TO A SHORT PERIOD OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION IN THE
EARLY TAUS AND A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 72 (340NM) AND TAU 120 (460NM), THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 300030).//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 12.5S 139.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 139.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 12.4S 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.5S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 12.9S 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.4S 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.9S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.6S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 18.0S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 139.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE WEIPA RADAR DEPICT A
QUASI-STATIONARY (QS), CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING THE MSI AND RADAR LOOPS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30KTS TO REFLECT THE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. AS THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DECREASING VWS,
VERY WARM (30-31C) SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL
SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER THE
CAPE YORK PENINSULA. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL ERODE TC 08P TO
40 KNOTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER TAU 96, A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST
AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN
THE CORAL SEA WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT
RE-INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DUE TO THE QS MOTION IN
THE EARLY TAUS AND A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODELS,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 12.5S 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.5S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.7S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.1S 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.6S 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.4S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.8S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.9S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 140.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 419 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE WEIPA RADAR SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS IT BEGAN
TO REVERSE ITS STORM MOTIONS AND TRACKED EASTWARD. DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS REMAIN CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (PGTW AND
KNES), T2.5 (ABRF), AND T2.7(CIMS) WHICH REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
DECREASING VWS, VERY WARM (30-31C) SST AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
VALUES WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL
OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE
TC 08P TO 40 KNOTS AS IT EXITS INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER
TAU 72, A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
EAST AND DRIVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE CORAL SEA WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT
RE-INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO OVER 250 NM BY TAU
72, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 12.7S 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 12.7S 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 12.8S 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.2S 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.8S 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.3S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.8S 153.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 140.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM WEIPA CITY SHOWS A FLARING CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM KNES AND ABRF, ABOVE THE
PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) AND BELOW THE AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51 KTS). OBSERVATIONS FROM WEIPA CITY,
90 NM TO THE EAST, ARE ON THE LOW SIDE, WITH ONLY 9 KTS OF WIND BUT
A 999MB PRESSURE READING. PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS INDICATE THAT
999MB WOULD SUPPORT 31 KT WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT.
TC 08P WILL INTENSIFY BRIEFLY TO 45 KTS, FUELED BY THE EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTERIA, BEFORE IT MAKES
LANDFALL ON THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA AT TAU 12, THEN
WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY OVER LAND TO 40 KTS BY TAU 24. TC 08P WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER IT RE-EMERGES INTO THE CORAL SEA AFTER TAU
24, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN
TO THE SOUTHEAST, CAUSING TC 08P TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE CORAL SEA WILL BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION UP TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 72,
WITH SSTS BETWEEN 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND MODERATE VWS.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN A
WEAKENING TREND. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE TRACK AND THE WESTWARD TURN. HOWEVER,
ALONG-TRACK SPEED VARIES, WITH ECMWF A NOTABLE OUTLIER PREDICTING
FASTER FORWARD TRACK MOTION THAN OTHER MODELS. NAVGEM IS NOTABLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND RECURVES THE SYSTEM
FURTHER WEST THAN CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 12.6S 141.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 141.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 12.5S 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.7S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.3S 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.1S 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.3S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.9S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.4S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 141.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 371 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MSI)
IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM WEIPA CITY, AUSTRALIA, SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE AND A CENTER POSITION STILL
OVER WATER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ABOVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM KNES,
ABRF, AND PGTW DUE TO THE DEEPENING CDO. OBSERVATIONS FROM WEIPA
CITY, 45NM TO THE EAST, SHOW 23 KTS AND 994 MB, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
38 KTS BY PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 08P WILL
INTENSIFY BRIEFLY TO 45 KTS, FUELED BY THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND
VERY WARM (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
GULF OF CARPENTERIA, BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA AT TAU 6, THEN WILL WEAKEN TEMPORARILY OVER
LAND, AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ONCE OVER WATER IN THE CORAL SEA AFTER
TAU 18. TC 08P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER IT RE-EMERGES INTO THE
CORAL SEA AFTER TAU 18, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHEAST, CAUSING TC 08P TO TURN
BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE CORAL SEA
WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION UP TO 60
KNOTS BY TAU 48, WITH SSTS BETWEEN 28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS AND
MODERATE VWS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS DIVERGED IN
LATER TAUS IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN. ECMWF, GFS, AND HWRF NOW
SLOW THE STORM AFTER TAU 72 THEN TURN IT TO THE NORTH AFTER A PERIOD
OF QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, WHILE NAVGEM, GALWEM, COAMPS-NAVGEM
STILL TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST. ALONG-TRACK SPEED CONTINUES
TO VARY, WITH ECMWF AND GALWEM NOTABLE OUTLIERS PREDICTING FASTER
FORWARD TRACK MOTION THAN OTHER MODELS. THE INTENSITY TREND AT LATER
TAUS DEPENDS ON THE TRACK THE SYSTEM TAKES, AS A NORTHWARD TRACK
WILL MOVE TC 08P INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWER VWS
AND WARMER SSTS. IN LIGHT OF THE DISSIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS,
THERE IS NOW LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 12.6S 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 12.5S 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 12.9S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.5S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.2S 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 156.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 17.1S 156.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 18.7S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 142.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION THAT SURROUNDS AND
OBSCURES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING THE WEIPA CITY RADAR
AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM WEIPA CITY WHICH REPORTED SOUTHERLY
WINDS AT 010600Z. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BASED ON THE 41
KT GUSTS REPORTED AT WEIPA CITY (YBWP) AT 010300Z. THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL TO POOR WITH MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. AROUND TAU 6, TC 08P
SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE CORAL SEA AND ENCOUNTER VERY FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) OF 28-30 CELSIUS. TC 08P WILL TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL TURN THE TRACK WESTWARD, BACK
TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. ONCE OVER WATER, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT
INTENSIFICATION TO 65 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TURNING POLEWARD, HIGH
VWS WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO DROP TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS SLOWER AND POLEWARD OF THE OTHER
MODELS, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. DESPITE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE TURN
WESTWARD, SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS AROUND 300 NM BY TAU 120, LENDING
TO LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 12.9S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.4S 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.2S 151.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.5S 156.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 17.9S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 19.5S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 143.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 011148Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH INDICATES WEAK TURNING TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS REFLECTS SOME WEAKENING
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. THERE WERE NO NEARBY OBSERVATIONS WITH
WINDS OVER 10 KTS AT 011200Z. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15-25
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
CORAL SEA, WITH ITS WARM 28-30 CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AT THAT POINT, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY TO 65 KTS BY TAU 72. TC 08P WILL
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE UNTIL
JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72 WHEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, VWS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH ALL
MEMBERS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND
021500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 143.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 143.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 13.3S 146.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.9S 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.8S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.6S 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.8S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.8S 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.8S 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 144.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. WEIPA RADAR AND ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATE PENNY WAS JUST CROSSING THE COASTLINE INTO THE CORAL SEA AT
18Z. A 011737Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE INDICATES BANDING REMAINED WELL
DEFINED AS PENNY CROSSED THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, WEAKENING SLIGHTLY FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST
GIVEN LAND EFFECTS AND ACCOUNTING FOR OBSERVATIONS AT LOCKHART RIVER
AND COEN AIRPORT OF AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS (MAXIMUM). TC 08P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS MODERATED, AND OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS GIVEN THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 72 HOWEVER, STEERING WILL TRANSITION TO
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DEFLECTION BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. POOR OUTFLOW CONDITIONS AND INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO A
WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM HEADS TOWARD THE QUEENSLAND COAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 020900Z AND 022100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 12.9S 144.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 144.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.4S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 14.1S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.9S 152.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.7S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.7S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.6S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 19.0S 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 145.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS IMPROVING CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NOW OVER THE CORAL SEA. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND
AGENCY FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, BETWEEN
THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 TO T3.0, RESPECTIVELY. A
012314Z OSCAT PASS DEPICTS THE LLCC TOO FAR TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, IT
REVEALS A GROWING SWATH OF 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, AND OUTFLOW
CHANNELS ARE BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED. TC 08P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE NORTH. A
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS AS THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) GRADUALLY BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY
INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. BY TAU 48, SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK, RESULTING
IN A DEFLECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCREASED VWS AND LIMITED
OUTFLOW WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL DISSIPATION TREND AFTER TAU 48, AS
PENNY TRACKS TOWARD THE QUEENSLAND COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z,
022100Z AND 030300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 146.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 146.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 13.5S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.4S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.3S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.8S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.2S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 17.3S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 19.1S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 146.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE USING A 020613Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH
REVEALS A LOW BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE CORE, SURROUNDED BY
PRECIPITATING CLOUD BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS). LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AROUND TAU 36, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO TURN THE CYCLONE
AND, BY TAU 72, THE TRACK WILL BE SOUTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN INCREASING
VWS AND DECREASING OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN.
ALTHOUGH MOST DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WIDE VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN AND
THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. FOR
THIS REASON, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 147.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 147.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.8S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 14.7S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.3S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 15.7S 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.3S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.6S 152.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 19.4S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 148.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 021129Z ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED
A LARGE SWATH OF 45 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOW (10-15
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P
WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
UNTIL AROUND TAU 36 WHEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL TURN
THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. AFTERWARD, INCREASED VWS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. EVERY MEMBER OF THE
CONSENSUS DEPICTS THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN BUT VARIATION IN ALONG-
TRACK MOTION AND THE TIMING OF THE TURN CAUSE THE SPREAD TO GROW
QUITE RAPIDLY. FOR THIS REASON, ALTHOUGH WE ARE CONFIDENT THE
CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 13.6S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 150.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 14.7S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.4S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.4S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 17.1S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 18.0S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 19.5S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
POSITIONED JUST EAST. A 021723Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BASED ON THE
IMPROVED MICROWAVE STRUCTURE AND A 021200Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 50
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS. TC 08P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 08P WILL ACCELERATE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29
CELSIUS) SST SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE. DYNAMIC MODEL
VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND TRACK
SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (NINE) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 030300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 14.3S 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.2S 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.7S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.3S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.6S 155.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 17.5S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 18.3S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.8S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 153.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 022307Z LOW
RESOLUTION AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A BROAD AND DIFFUSE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, BASED ON
A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5, AN AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T2.6 (37 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 52 KNOTS. A
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 022308Z SHOWED 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER, SUPPORTING THE LOWER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. TC 08P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE STEERING
PATTERN SHIFTS TO A STRENGTHENING STR TO THE SOUTH. BY TAU 48, THE
STR TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM AND
ACCELERATE TC 08P TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SSTS. BEYOND TAU 48
INCREASING VWS AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND, WITH
THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE QUEENSLAND COAST NEAR TAU 120
AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN
AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED WARNING POSITION AND
FORECAST.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 014
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 153.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 153.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.7S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 16.0S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.4S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.4S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.4S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.5S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 154.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND IT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 030600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW ALONG WITH A 030453Z SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. A 022309Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS 40
KNOTS. TC 08P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT HAS LIMITED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. TC 08P WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NER THROUGH TAU 24. THERE
HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND FORECAST
TRACK BEYOND TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DRASTICALLY CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. THE CURRENT TRACKERS INDICATE A MUCH
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AFTER TAU 24 WITH TC 08P POSSIBLY BECOMING
QUASISTATIONARY BY TAU 36 AS A RESULT OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. TC 08P
IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AFTER TAU 36 WHILE BETWEEN A NER
LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH GFS
INDICATING A NORTHWARD TRACK BY TAU 120 AND ECMWF AND UKMET
INDICATING A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK BY TAU 120. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKERS.
DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z
IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.4S 154.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 154.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 15.8S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.1S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.3S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.4S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.3S 154.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.1S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.4S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 154.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING
SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS
BASED ON A PARTIAL 031107Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED
ON THE 031107Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE. TC 08P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW BUT HAS LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED
TO THE NORTH. TC 08P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
NER THROUGH TAU 12. TC 08P WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY BY TAU 24 AS A
RESULT OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. DURING THIS TIME TC 08P WILL BE
POSITIONED BETWEEN THE NER TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AFTER TAU
36 WHILE BETWEEN THE NER AND STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE LAST MODEL RUN BUT IS STILL IN POOR
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED BETWEEN THE UKMET AND
ECMWF MODEL TRACKERS AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AND THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 155.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 15.9S 156.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.1S 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.1S 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.1S 155.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.1S 154.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.2S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.3S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 156.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A 031939Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE (WITHIN 30NM). THIS SSMIS IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS THE
FORECAST TRACK/PHILOSOPHY IN THAT THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SLOWING
SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. BASED ON RECENT ASCAT, A
031104Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS AND THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE,
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, HEDGED ABOVE THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST,
WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, TC 08P WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A
STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SST SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS DEGRADE. DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS REMAIN IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD
TURN AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS, THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z,
040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 040300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 017A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 16.0S 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 155.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 16.2S 156.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.4S 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.5S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.6S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.8S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.8S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.8S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 156.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OCCLUDING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A 032247Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CENTRAL LOW REFLECTIVITY
AREA WITH A POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
MSI LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING STRUCTURE, HEDGING ABOVE THE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF T3.0 (45KTS) AND IS
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 54 KNOTS. THERE IS
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL PRODUCE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08P WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HAS GOOD OUTFLOW, AND IS TRACKING
THROUGH WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SSTS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DEGRADE, SPECIFICALLY,
VWS WILL INCREASE. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
WESTWARD TURN AND TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED AMPLIFYING REMARKS.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 156.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 156.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 16.3S 156.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 16.3S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.4S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.4S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.5S 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.5S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.5S 148.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 156.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN UNRAVELING SYSTEM. A
040724Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, ALTHOUGH THE
BROADENING LLCC HAS INTRODUCED SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION, WHICH IS SUFFERING UNDER A HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KTS) TO T3.5 (45 KTS). A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OR PERIOD OF
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08P WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT VWS HAS INCREASED
OVER THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, BUT A
WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) SSTS
WILL HELP TC 08P MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU
12, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS VWS INCREASES AND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT DECREASES. THE JTWC FORECAST INTENSITY NOW REFLECTS A MORE
RAPID WEAKENING TREND, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST SEVERAL MESOSCALE
MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUSES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING
OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER TAUS. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z,
050300Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 155.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 16.1S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 16.2S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.3S 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.4S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.6S 151.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.5S 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.2S 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 155.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 583 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS RESURGENT CENTRAL CONVECTION, BUT DECREASED CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND STRUCTURE. A 041118Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
AMBIGUITIES FROM A 041118Z ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVECTION AND THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH
SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF 40 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH WITH AN
AREA OF 45 KT WIND BARBS EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. CONVECTION IS SUFFERING
UNDER A HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.5 (35 KTS) TO T3.0
(45 KTS) AND HAVE BEEN DECREASING. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, TC 08P WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120 AS A STR BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE
HIGH VWS, A WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND WARM (27-29
CELSIUS) SSTS WILL HELP TC 08P MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
72. AFTER TAU 72, AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS AND THE HIGH VWS IS
SUSTAINED, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FURTHER. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN AND ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS IN THE LATER
TAUS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z,
050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 15.9S 155.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 155.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.8S 155.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 16.0S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.2S 154.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.4S 152.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 16.6S 150.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 16.3S 149.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 15.6S 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 584 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE SOUTHWEST UNDER MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 041626Z HIGH RESOLUTION AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE, WITH LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE ANIMATED
3.9 MICRON INFRARED IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (40 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 41 KTS
AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 47 KNOTS, SUPPORTED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF
A 10 HOUR OLD ASCAT PASS, WHICH INDICATED A BROAD REGION OF 40 KNOT
WINDS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED 45 KNOT WINDBARBS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH HIGH (20-
25 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS, WARM SSTS (28-29 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WHERE MODERATE LEVELS
OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT BY TAU 24, TC 08P WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
FROM TAU 72 THROUGH TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWESTWARD, AS A BUILDING STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE
DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM. HIGH VWS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TAU 24, BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY THE HIGH SSTS, MODERATE OHC
AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING TC 08P TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
THROUGH TAU 24. A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48, AS VWS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND OUTFLOW
BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT. HOWEVER, BEYOND TAU 48, STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS AND VWS AGAIN INCREASES. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A COUPLE OF
SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS. THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AGREE ON THE
OVERALL TRACK, WITH GFS BEING A SOUTHWARD OUTLIER, ABOUT 60NM
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS BUT FOLLOWING THE SAME TRACK. THE
ECMWF IS THE WESTERN OUTLIER, TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A STRAIGHT TRACK
TOWARDS CAIRNS. NAVGEM IS THE EXTREME NORTH AND EAST OUTLIER, TAKING
THE SYSTEM NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOLOMONS RESULTING IN A
MODEL SPREAD OF 610NM AT TAU 120. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 24 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 155.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 155.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 15.8S 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.0S 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.3S 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5S 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.7S 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.1S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 15.4S 146.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 155.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 568 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST UNDER
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). WHILE THE
CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS UNIMPRESSIVE, THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE
REMAINS VERY ORGANIZED, WITH LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS BANDING INTO A WELL
DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AND ANALYSIS OF 052228Z ASCAT
AMBIGUITIES WHICH LINE UP NICELY WITH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 (35 KNOTS) TO T3.0 (45
KNOTS), AND SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS SHOWING TWO
AREAS OF 35 TO 40 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF TC 08P ARE MARGINAL,
WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT, A
2100Z UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF
CONVERGENCE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE
VWS, ARE INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED
ITS TURN TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS IT EMERGES FROM
THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TURNING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 96 AS A STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE
DOMINATE STEERING MECHANISM. MODERATE VWS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE TWO
FACTORS OFFSET ONE ANOTHER. A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST BY TAU 36 AS VWS IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT
THEREAFTER THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS VWS AGAIN INCREASES.
TC 08P WILL WEAKEN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 96 AND DISSIPATE IN
THE CORAL SEA BY TAU 120 UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,
HIGH VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS RUN, WITH ALL MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS
AGREEING ON THE TRACK AND SPEED THROUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72,
MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT, WITH GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MOVING THE SYSTEM
MORE NORTHWARD, WHILE ECWMF AND ITS ENSEMBLE TAKE THE SYSTEM MORE
WESTWARD TOWARDS CAIRNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE
INCREASING AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS IMPROVING, YET
STILL MODERATE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P
(MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 15.8S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.0S 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 16.4S 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 16.6S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.7S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.2S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.1S 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS AN ELONGATED EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CONVECTION THAT HAS FLARED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ELONGATED LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS), BASED ON THE SUSTAINED
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF TC 08P ARE MARGINAL, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF CONVERGENCE JUST
UPSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH, COMBINED WITH THE VWS, IS INHIBITING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY EASTWARD,
CONTINUING ITS PERIOD OF QUASISTATIONARY MOTION IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 12, IT WILL COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. TC 08P IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE TURNING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS A STR OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA BECOMES THE DOMINATE
STEERING MECHANISM. MODERATE VWS AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW WILL ENABLE
THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. VWS IS
ANTICIPATED TO SLACKEN BRIEFLY AFTER TAU 24, ENABLING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS AT TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, TC 08P WILL
AGAIN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS VWS RESURGES AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN. TC 08P WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 IN AN UNFAVORABLE, HIGH VWS
ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL OUTFLOW AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM
AUSTRALIA. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THE WESTWARD TRACK IN
THE NEAR TERM. BEYOND TAU 72, MODELS DIVERGE MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN, WITH HWRF, COAMPS-GFS, AND COAMPS-NAVGEM RECURVING THE SYSTEM
MORE DRAMATICALLY TO THE NORTH, AND WITH UKMET, ECMWF, AND GALWEM
ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND EVEN SHOW A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD DIP AS THEY MOVE THE SYSTEM WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE, ALTHOUGH IT IS PLACED SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS IN THE NEAR TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE QUASISTATIONARY MOTION
THAT IS STILL OCCURING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 156.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 156.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 16.0S 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 16.2S 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.6S 153.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.8S 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 16.7S 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.1S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.2S 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 156.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS BEING SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 051057Z MHS
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
(CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND AN ADT CI OF T3.0 (45
KNOTS). TC 08P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TC 08P IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHILE POSITIONED
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE STR TO THE SOUTH
WILL BECOMING THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND WILL ALLOW TC 08P TO
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 6. TC 08P WILL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AFTER TAU 6. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL
ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL BE OFFSET BY
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE
MARGINAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 08P TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY
BETWEEN 40 AND 45 KNOTS THOUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 08P WILL
BEGIN TO DISSIPATE DUE TO DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. TC
08P WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 115 NM. HOWEVER, BY
TAU 120, THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES TO 410 NM. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY TAU 120 THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 16.4S 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 16.6S 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.0S 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.3S 152.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 17.6S 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.5S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.8S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.8S 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 155.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 587 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER TOP OF AND
OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
ANIMATED EIR LOOP. THE POOR CONFIDENCE IS DUE TO THE CIRRUS CANOPY
COVERING THE LLCC AND THE LACK OF ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED BY
A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. TC 08P IS CURRENTLY IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET
BY A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P
HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED TO THE
NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE STR
TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOMING THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE AND WILL
CAUSE TC 08P TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE STR
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE INCREASING VWS WILL BE OFFSET BY GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 08P TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY
BETWEEN 45 AND 50 KNOTS THOUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 08P WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING VWS, AND BEYOND TAU
96, LAND INTERACTION. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY
TAUS, HOWEVER, INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS SPREAD STEADILY THROUGH
TAU 120. BY LANDFALL, THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS AROUND 400NM.
DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN LATER TAUS, THERE IS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P
(MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 17.1S 155.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 155.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 17.5S 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.9S 153.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.3S 151.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.6S 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.2S 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.0S 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.5S 143.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 154.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 528 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED OVER
TOP OF AND OCCLUDING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW
LEVEL BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 052314Z ASCAT
IMAGE. A 052312Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH
POORLY ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING IN. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND IS SUPPORTED
BY 40 KNOT WIND BARBS PRESENT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE.
TC 08P CURRENTLY RESIDES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P HAS BEGUN TO TRACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. THE STR HAS RECENTLY TAKEN
OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF
QUASI-STATIONARY STORM MOTION. THE STR WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE THOUGH TAU 72 CAUSING A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DIRECTION. AFTER TAU 72, A SECOND STR OVER
AUSTRALIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE STEERING CAUSING A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE. THE INCREASING VWS WILL INITIALLY BE
OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ENABLING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THESE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 08P TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY BETWEEN 40
AND 45 KNOTS THOUGH TAU 72. BEYOND TAU 72, TC 08P WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND
INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST COAST OF AUSTRALIA. TC 08P IS
FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA AROUND TAU 96.
ONCE OVER LAND, TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL FULLY DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN THE EARLY TAUS. AFTER TAU 48, CONSENSUS MEMBERS BEGIN TO
SPREAD RESULTING IN A 400NM VARIATION AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN
LATER TAUS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 154.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 154.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 17.4S 153.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 17.9S 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.3S 150.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.6S 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.2S 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.5S 144.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 17.2S 154.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 499 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 060600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
WHICH SHOWS THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS
HEDGED BETWEEN A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (45 KNOTS). TC 08P IS
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25
KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
08P IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE
PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT
INTENSIFICATION. THESE OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW TC 08P TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48. BY
TAU 72, TC 08P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL
SPREAD OF 100 NM BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO
215 NM BY TAU 96. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK DIRECTION BUT
DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 154.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 154.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 17.4S 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 17.9S 151.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.3S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.4S 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.2S 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 154.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND IS STILL BEING SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A
PARTIAL 061038Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ALSO BASED ON THE
PARTIAL 061038Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF 30
KNOT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC WITH 35 KNOT WINDS LIKELY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWATH. TC 08P IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE,
BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD. HOWEVER, UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. TC 08P WILL REMAIN AT 35
KNOTS THROUGH TAU 48 AND DISSIPATE TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DISSIPATION
TO 30 KNOTS MAY OCCUR EARLIER BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MODEL SPREAD OF 90 NM BY TAU 48. HOWEVER, THE
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO 200 NM BY TAU 72 WITH NAVGEM THE SINGLE
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 154.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 154.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 18.0S 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.7S 151.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.1S 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.1S 148.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.9S 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6S 153.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 477 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL FLARE OF CONVECTION DUE TO DIURNAL MAXIMUM
THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061619Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD,
RAGGED LLCC WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE FLARING CONVECTION AND
A PARTIAL 061144Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED A LARGE SWATH OF 30-34 KT
WINDS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. WHILE THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T1.5 (25 KTS), THE AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.6 (39 KTS). MODERATE (15
TO 20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ABATED AROUND TC 08P, WHICH
IS ALSO EXPERIENCING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENABLING THE RECENT
RETURN OF SOME DEEP CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS TC 08P TRACKS WESTWARD. VWS IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE IN THE NEAR-TERM. MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING HWRF, COAMPS-
NAVGEM, AND COAMPS-GFS FORECAST SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, BUT THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK HOLDS THE INTENSITY STEADY AT 35 KTS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT, INCREASING VWS, AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD GIVEN THE RECENT SOUTHWESTERN MOTION,
TOWARDS THE RECENT ECMWF SOLUTION, WHICH IS SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 029
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 153.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 153.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 18.2S 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.8S 150.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.9S 148.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.7S 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.6S 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 152.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 426 NM EAST
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS TUCKED UNDER A
RECENT LARGE FLARE OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE NEARLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP AND A 062252Z AMSU 89GHZ
IMAGE THAT SHOWS THE LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSIVE DEEP
CONVECTION AND A PARTIAL 062252Z ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 30-34 AND
35-39 KT WIND BARBS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER, SO 40 KT WINDS ARE
LIKELY CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T2.0 (30 KTS), WHILE AUTOMATED DVORAK
ESTIMATES YIELD T2.7 (41 KTS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS REDUCED
FURTHER TO 10-15 KTS, WHICH ALONG WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS
ENHANCING THE RECENT DEEPENING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 27 AND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 08P IS
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS TC 08P TRACKS
WESTWARD. VWS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW IN THE NEAR TERM, AND TC 08P
IS ACCORDINGLY FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A 40 KT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU
36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS, DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LAND
INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. COAMPS-NAVGEM AND
COAMPS-GFS FORECAST FURTHER SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, BUT HWRF NOW
MAINTAINS INTENSITY THEN WEAKENS THE SYSTEM. MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON TRACK, WITH 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
09P (MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 18.1S 152.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S 152.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 18.6S 150.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.0S 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.0S 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 18.8S 147.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.4S 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2S 151.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT
IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI
AND A 070452Z SSMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHERE SHALLOW BANDING ON
THE NORTH SIDE SUGGESTS THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM MARION REEF, LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
SOUTH, REPORTED EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND SUPPORTS THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ABOVE PGTW AND KNES
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED ON THE
MARION REEF OBSERVATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 08P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE STR, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST, WILL BUILD TOWARD TC 08P AND SHIFT THE TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48, JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER
AUSTRALIA. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WILL MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY
AROUND 40 KTS UNTIL LAND INTERACTION CAUSES DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE
DUE TO STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P
(MONA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 031
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 151.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 151.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 19.1S 150.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.2S 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 19.0S 147.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.6S 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.4S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 151.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY WHICH REVEALS WARMING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE 070600Z OBSERVATION FROM MARION REEF, LOCATED ABOUT 50
NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, REPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 32 KTS,
SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY OF 40
KTS IS ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T2.0-T2.5
(30-35 KTS) BASED ON THE MARION REEF OBSERVATION. UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET
BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 08P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AROUND TAU 24, THE STR WILL START TO BUILD TOWARD TC 08P, SHIFTING
THE CYCLONE ONTO A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH MAINTAINS A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATER TAUS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED FROM THE CONSENSUS
TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR NAVGEM, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09P (MONA) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 151.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 151.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 19.2S 149.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 19.4S 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.5S 147.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 150.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 323 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF DEEP BUT FRAGMENTED CONVECTION SHEARED MORE THAN 50 NM
TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END
OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.7.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF
STRONG (GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ALBEIT WITH GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS SAME TROUGH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY ON THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. STRONG VWS WILL PRIMARILY BE THE CAUSE OF ITS GRADUAL
DECAY, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, VERY POSSIBLY SOONER. THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK WITH NAVGEM
THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (PENNY) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 19.2S 150.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 150.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 19.5S 149.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 150.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (PENNY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS A SMALL, RAGGED, WEAK, AND FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE SHALLOW CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED MORE
THAN 100 NM SOUTHWESTWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO
T2.0 AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS NOW IN AN AREA OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (GREATER THAN
30 KNOTS) AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF ITS FURTHER DETERIORATION AS IT
CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. TC 08P
HAS DISSIPATED AND NOW BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_penny_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
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