Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone POLA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone POLA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 251300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 175.5W TO 20.5S 175.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6S 175.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 174.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 175.5W, APPROXIMATELY
285 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250929Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL PATCHES OF FLARING CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER IT. A 250856Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
HIGHER WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH
(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO
WARNING STATUS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 175.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 175.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 17.2S 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.4S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.6S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.6S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 28.0S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 175.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 252037Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT, AND GRADIENT ENHANCED 40 KNOT WINDS FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS
ALSO BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. TC 16P IS IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE EAST. OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, A SLIGHT WESTWARD DEFLECTION IS EXPECTED
AROUND TAU 24 AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A DEFLECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
DEEP TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH 16P, LEADING TO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BEGINNING AT TAU 48. THE ET WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU
72 AS STRONG BAROCLINICITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 15.9S 176.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 176.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.2S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.2S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 28.3S 176.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 176.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (TC) (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION, MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 260602Z 37GHZ WINDSAT IMAGE SHOWING A
WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND NFFN. TC 16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BETWEEN 29 AND 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. TC 16P WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE REACHING A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72,
TC 16P WILL COMPLETE ETT AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 176.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 176.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 18.8S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.6S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.6S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.5S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.3S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 176.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 283 NM
SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 261206Z 36GHZ GMI IMAGE SHOWING A WELL
DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW
AND AN ADT CI OF T2.9 (43 KNOTS). TC 16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT,
BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. TC 16P WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWARD WHILE REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS A
RESULT OF FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. BY
TAU 48, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND START
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). BY TAU 72, TC 16P WILL COMPLETE ETT
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 176.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 176.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.2S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.0S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 24.2S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 26.0S 177.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.8S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 176.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM EAST
OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS RAIN BANDS WRAP TIGHTER INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 261745Z SSMIS
NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLOR-ENHANCED IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
TC 16P IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 29-30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. THE CYCLONE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 48, IT WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS
AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55 KNOTS BUT BY TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS TAKE THEIR TOLL. CONCURRENTLY, TC
POLA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 72, WILL BECOME
A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH A LARGE CORE AND AN EXPANDING
WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 176.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 176.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.1S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 25.0S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.2S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 29.0S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 19.8S 177.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS THAT HAS
SINCE FILLED INTO A DIMPLE FEATURE. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS
FURTHER DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED AS RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE, ADJUSTED FOR TILT, AND LINED UP
WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 262046Z AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65KTS FROM ALL
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 16P IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AT 29-30 CELSIUS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE.
THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 48, IT WILL ROUND
THE STR AXIS AND ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE MORE INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BUT BY TAU 48,
INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 36, TC POLA WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND BY TAU 72, WILL BECOME A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH A
LARGE CORE AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 19.8S 177.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8S 177.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.4S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.1S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.0S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.7S 178.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 27.6S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 177.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A
LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN 270618Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 16P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE AND TC 16P PASSES OVER WARM WATER. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER SHOULD RESULT IN
STEADY WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 AS IT ENCOUNTERS AND MERGES WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIVERGES
THEREAFTER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH EVENTUAL INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK
FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST, IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON NOTED MODEL
FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOWER CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 177.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 177.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.1S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.9S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.7S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.0S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 270916Z MHS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC
16P IS EXPERIENCING NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO
25 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 16P IS TRACKING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE POSITIONED ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE THROUGH TAU 48. SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS (WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL) WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION WITH TC 16P REACHING 90 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL BE POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS AND WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD. AN APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE TC 16P EASTWARD BY TAU 72 AND
ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
AGREEMENT BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 21.3S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.1S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.9S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.5S 178.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 27.5S 178.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.8S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 276 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A WELL
FORMED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 271727Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE, AND THE FORMATIVE
EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS BASED
ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS)
AND SATCON OF 92 KNOTS AT 271316Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
TC 16P IS ENTERING A REGION OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS), A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS)
ALLOWING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. TC 16P IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS EAST. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH, WEAKENING THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR AND ALLOWING TC 16P TO TRANSITION TO AN EASTWARD
TRACK AFTER TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 48 AND FULLY TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY
LESS AGREEMENT BY TAU 72. ECMWF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER AFTER TAU
48, SHOWING A MORE DRAMATIC NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. OVERALL, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED BETWEEN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 22.2S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.9S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 25.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.3S 178.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.1S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.3S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 22.6S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS SUSTAINED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DEFINED EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 272236Z SSMIS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE AND THE EYE IN THE MSI
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS PLACED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM KNES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN AS WELL AS A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81
KNOTS AT 272135Z. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 16P WILL
MAINTAIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) THROUGH TAU 12 BEFORE
ENTERING A REGION OF HIGHER VWS AND LOWER SST. TC 16P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
ITS EAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH,
WEAKENING THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AND ALLOWING TC 16P TO TRANSITION
TO AN EASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48. THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AT TAU 48 AND FULLY
TRANSITION TO A COLD-CORE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE
WIND FIELD, ACCELERATING EASTWARD, BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AGREEMENT BY
TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 010300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 178.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 178.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 25.4S 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 27.2S 178.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.1S 176.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.5S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.6S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH A
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 280352Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE AND A 280600Z
PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 16P HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE
TO LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE
OVER WARM WATER. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 36,
AFTER WHICH TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND TURN EASTWARD. ALTHOUGH STORM INTENSITY MAY STILL INCREASE IN THE
NEAR-TERM, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING ALONG-TRACK
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 36, TC 16P
WILL ENCOUNTER AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN EQUATORWARD COMPONENT TO TRACK MOTION AFTER TAU
36. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL FORECAST
GROUPING. GIVEN NOTED MODEL FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 36 AND LOW CONFIDENCE
THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z, 282100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 24.4S 178.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4S 178.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 26.4S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 28.2S 177.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.9S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 29.0S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9S 178.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 5NM EYE. A 281156Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (5-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, SST (27C) VALUES
REMAIN CONDUCIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST.
GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 24,
AFTER WHICH TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
AND TURN EASTWARD. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING
ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN
OVERALL WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU
24, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 48.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL AND GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS DEPICT AN EQUATORWARD COMPONENT TO TRACK MOTION
AFTER TAU 36. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC
TRACK FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL
FORECAST GROUPING. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z,
010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 25.2S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 26.9S 177.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.1S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.4S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 25.6S 178.0W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A COMPACT EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A 281715Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE INDICATING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A WEAKENING
EYE FEATURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TC 16P WILL DRIVE INTO HIGH VWS AND COOLER SST (26
CELSIUS), PROMPTING THE START OF THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5/5.0 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. GENERALLY POLEWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TAU 12 UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 24, TC 16P WILL ENCOUNTER AND
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 INTO A COLD-CORE
SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO,
HOWEVER, ECMWF DEPICTS THE SYSTEM BECOMING CUT-OFF FROM THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH AS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, BRINGING THE
SYSTEM MORE EQUATORWARD THAN OTHER MODELS OR THE MULTIMODEL
CONSENSUS. ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF LAGS BEHIND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS
IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED, WHILE NAVGEM AND GFS ARE FASTER THAN
CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONSENSUS.
DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND
012100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 26.0S 177.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 177.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.5S 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.3S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.4S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 177.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
282146Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING WEAKENING, TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TC 16P WILL DRIVE INTO HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS AND COOLER SST (26
CELSIUS), PROMPTING THE START OF THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
4.5/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD.
AFTER TAU 12, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36
INTO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO. NAVGEM, EGRR, AND GFS ARE FASTER THAN THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS IN ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 27.2S 177.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 177.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 28.5S 175.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.7S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 28.6S 168.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 27.5S 177.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-DECAYING SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 010546Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC
16P IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST
TO RECURVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER TAU 12, TC POLA WILL ACCELERATE
EASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
APPROACHES THE JET. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (24-25C). THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL FORECAST GROUPING. DUE TO INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 27.8S 177.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S 177.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.5S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 28.3S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 28.0S 176.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY-DECAYING SYSTEM WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO MODERATE TO
STRONG (20 TO 30 KNOTS) WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). A 011240Z ATMS 183GHZ IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW AS
WELL AS A 010908Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWING 50-55 KNOT WINDS. TC 16P IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST
TO RECURVE EASTWARD AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). AFTER
TAU 12, TC POLA WILL ACCELERATE EASTWARD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS IT GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND APPROACHES THE JET. TC 16P IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SST (24-25C).
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK
FORECASTS, THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PRIMARY MODEL FORECAST
GROUPING. DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 12, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z AND
020900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 28.1S 176.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 176.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.3S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 175.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED WITH
THE REMNANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS
FROM PGTW AND T3.0/45KTS AND REFLECTS THE RAPID DECAY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER STRONG
(GREATER THAN 30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CONCURRENTLY, THE CYCLONE
HAS ENTERED THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND NOW UNDERGOING
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE DECAY, THE
SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STORM-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_pola_jtwc_advisories.htm
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