Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTPS21 PGTW 150130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S 151.0E TO 15.1S 148.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 151.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.1S 150.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 151.0E APPROXIMATELY 236
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 142304Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 142306Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS REVEALS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KT WINDS WRAPPED
AROUND THE CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS INVEST 92P BORDERING AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN
THE SOLOMON SEA SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
STRENGTH WITH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD, WITH
POSSIBLE LAND INTERFERENCE FROM NEARBY ISLANDS AND THE PAPUAN
PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
160130Z.
========================================================================
WTPS21 PGTW 170130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160121ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/./
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5S 147.0E TO 12.0S 143.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 149.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 95
NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 162027Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 162311Z OSCAT PASS SHOWS A SWATH OF 30KT
WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 160130).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180130Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A//MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170121ZMAR2019//
AMPN/ REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 13.4S 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 13.7S 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 14.0S 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 14.1S 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 14.1S 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 14.8S 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 16.1S 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 146.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
WHICH REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
AND DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5
(35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH. OVER THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR, WITH THE TRACK MIRRORING
CHANGES IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 70 KTS
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG CAPE YORK JUST AFTER TAU 36. WHILE OVER
CAPE YORK, TC 20P WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BUT, AROUND TAU 72, IT
WILL EMERGE OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AT
THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AGAIN, THIS
TIME TO 115 KTS, IF NOT HIGHER, BY TAU 120 WHILE TURNING POLEWARD.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS SMALL
SHIFTS IN THE TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY DUE TO
CHANGES IN THE DURATION OF LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z,
181500Z AND 182100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERCEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 170130).//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 12.2S 145.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S 145.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 12.3S 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.5S 143.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.6S 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.7S 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.8S 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.0S 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.5S 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 145.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM NORTH
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS WELL-ORGANIZED RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND A EXTRAPOLATED 172015Z
SSMIS COLOR 37GHZ IMAGE. THE 171800Z POSITION HAS SHIFTED
SIGNIFICANTLY, AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARRIVED AFTER THE FORECAST WAS
ISSUED THAT SHOWED A POSITION APPROXIMATELY 45 NM NORTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 172015Z SATCON ESTIMATE
OF 46 KTS AND THE ABRF AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESIMATES OF
T3.0 (45 KTS), BUT ABOVE THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 20P IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. OVER THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RE-ORIENT TO THE
EAST, ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KTS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ALONG CAPE YORK AROUND TAU 36.
WHILE OVER CAPE YORK, TC 20P WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BUT, AROUND
TAU 72, IT WILL EMERGE OVER THE VERY WARM (30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS)
WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AGAIN, THIS TIME TO 105 KTS, IF NOT
HIGHER, BY TAU 120, BEFORE IT APPROACHES LAND. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AS SMALL SHIFTS IN THE TRACK
COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY DUE TO CHANGES IN THE DURATION OF
LAND INTERACTION AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN POOR AGREEMENT. THE LATEST RUN OF NAVGEM PREDICTS AN
UNREALISTIC DUE SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA, WHILE
HWRF SHOWS A DUE WESTWARD TRACK THAT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE NORTH OF AND AHEAD OF THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SOLUTION. THERE
WAS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THIS MOST RECENT ONE DUE TO THE RE-ADJUSTED 171800Z
POSITION, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK TRENDING WESTWARD AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 HAS REMAINED THE SAME. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 12.3S 145.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 145.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 12.5S 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 12.7S 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 12.9S 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.0S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.3S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.5S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.2S 136.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 144.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTH OF
CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE
SYSTEM IN THE CORAL SEA (CS) THAT HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AS
EXTENSIVE RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED INTO A
FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
50 KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS TO
T3.5/55KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 20P WILL TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA
AROUND TAU 24 AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) SHORTLY
AFTER TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE EASTWARD,
ALLOWING TC 20P TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING A SECONDARY
LANDFALL IN THE GOC COAST NEAR BORROLOOLA. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
IN THE CS WILL PROMOTE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IN THE NEAR
TERM - UP TO 70 KNOTS - PRIOR TO THE INITIAL LANDFALL. AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION IN THE YORK PENINSULA WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
55 KNOTS. THE GOC WILL EQUALLY BE FAVORABLE AND PROMOTE A SECOND RI -
UP TO 95 KNOTS - BY TAU 96 BEFORE THE FINAL LANDFALL. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS SMALL
SHIFTS IN THE TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY DUE TO
CHANGES IN THE DURATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND THE TIMING OF
LANDFALL. ADDITIONALLY, DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT. THIS AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF LAND INTERACTION LEND
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z,
190300Z AND 190900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 144.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 144.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 12.8S 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 12.9S 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 13.1S 142.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.2S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.7S 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.0S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.8S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 144.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 173 NM EAST
OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE CORAL SEA (CS) THAT CONTINUED TO
CONSOLIDATE AS EXTENSIVE RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH, WRAPPED
TIGHTER INTO A FORMATIVE EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FORMATIVE EYE AND A CIRCULATION FEATURE
IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND
ABRF. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 29C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC 20P WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA (CYP) AROUND
TAU 18 AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) SHORTLY BEFORE TAU
48. AFTERWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO RECEDE EASTWARD, ALLOWING TC
20P TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, MAKING A SECONDARY LANDFALL IN THE
GOC COAST NEAR BORROLOOLA. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE CS WILL
PROMOTE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) IN THE NEAR TERM - UP TO 70
KNOTS - PRIOR TO THE INITIAL LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION IN
THE CYP WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 45 KNOTS. THE GOC WILL BE MORE
FAVORABLE WITH HIGHER (32C) SSTS AND PROMOTE A SECOND RI - UP TO 110
KNOTS - BY TAU 96 BEFORE THE SECONDARY LANDFALL. THERE IS, HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS EVEN SMALL DEVIATIONS IN THE
TRACK COULD GREATLY IMPACT THE INTENSITY. DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24 ONLY; AFTERWARD, THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS, AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF
LAND INTERACTION LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 144.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 144.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 13.1S 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.2S 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.2S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.3S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.6S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 14.9S 137.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.8S 134.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 144.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20P HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID
INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INCREASING FROM 35 KNOTS
TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS (A 55 KNOT INCREASE). ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEIPA RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT
SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH A 12NM EYE. TRACK
MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER,
THERE IS EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW; ABRF IS AT A T4.5
DUE TO CONSTRAINTS BUT ALSO MEASURED A DT5.0). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND REORIENTS AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND
HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT IS POSITIONED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT
CROSSES THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER
THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO RI AFTER TAU 48 DUE TO VERY WARM SST (30-32C), HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT VALUES, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
AFTER TAU 96, TC 20P WILL MAKE LANDFALL, TRACK INLAND AND STEADILY
WEAKEN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
========================================================================
006
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 143.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 143.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.0S 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.0S 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.0S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.3S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.3S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.8S 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.1S 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 143.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL, 7NM WIDE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE
RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, WHICH ALSO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. TC 20P IS
EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS
EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 20P IS
TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 20P WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN. TC 20P WILL
EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA NEAR TAU 30. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES CELSIUS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TC 20P TO RE-INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND REORIENTS AS A DEEP
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 20P
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS NEAR TAU 84, SHORTLY BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL AGAIN IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
AFUM AND EGRR, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. AFUM AND
EGRR SHOW A SLOWER TRACK SPEED AND AN EARLIER TURN SOUTHWESTWARD
WHILE THE REST OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS SHOW A FASTER TRACK SPEED AND
MORE GRADUAL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
GUIDANCE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING
THE ECMWF TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 12.9S 143.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 143.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 12.8S 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 12.9S 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.0S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.4S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.5S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.1S 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 18.7S 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 143.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS TC
20P TRACKS OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER
LAND. TC 20P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10
KNOTS) AND HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
TC 20P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 20P WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 20P WILL
EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 30 AND 32 DEGREES CELSIUS AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW TC 20P TO QUICKLY RE-INTENSIFY IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE
STR SHIFTS EASTWARD AND REORIENTS AS A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 20P WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72, SHORTLY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL IN
NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT BUT HAS A SPREAD OF 140 NM BY TAU 72 AND A 305 NM
SPREAD BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF TRACK. DUE TO
THE CURRENT LAND INTERACTION AND THE MODEL DIFFERENCES THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z,
200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 13.2S 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.1S 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 13.2S 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.5S 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.9S 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.1S 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 16.9S 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.2S 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 142.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 686 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND WEIPA RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TC 20P HAS
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVERLAND BUT HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE, THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
CONSERVATIVELY AT 85 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH, AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR SHIFTS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND REORIENTS AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AND
HIGH UNCERTAINTY PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE
TURN POLEWARD AND MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE SOLUTION BUT IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. TC 20P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 12 AS IT CROSSES
THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE
GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A GREATER RATE AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO VERY WARM SST (30-
32C), HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEAR TAU 72, TC 20P WILL MAKE LANDFALL, TRACK
INLAND AND STEADILY WEAKEN. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z,
201500Z AND 202100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 13.1S 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 13.0S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 13.0S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.3S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.8S 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.2S 136.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.6S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.0S 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 141.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 656 NM EAST
OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM WEIPA, AUSTRALIA AND A 200000Z PGTW SATELLITE POSITION
FIX. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSERVATIVE
WEAKENING TREND OVER LAND. TC 20P HAS LOST MOST OF ITS CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION AND STEADILY WEAKENED WHILE PASSING OVER THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. HOWEVER, RADAR DATA INDICATES A
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CIRCULATION THAT WILL LIKELY REORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY
SOON AFTER IT REEMERGES OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TC
20P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS PATTERN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION
FUELED BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
PASSAGE OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA IS
LIKELY BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. STEADY
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE STORM TRACKS
INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK IN
THE NEAR-TERM THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE
STEERING FLOW, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT. THE JTWC
FORECAST LIES WITHIN THE MODEL ENVELOPE, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z,
202100Z AND 210300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 141.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 141.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.9S 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.0S 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.5S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.0S 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 15.5S 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.5S 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 141.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AS TC 20P
HAS TRACKED OVER LAND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM WEIPA,
AUSTRALIA WHICH SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONTINUING WEAKENING TREND WHILE
OVER LAND. TC 20P IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO
10 KNOTS), HAS A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, AND AN EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TC 20P IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE STR WILL BEGIN TO REORIENT TO THE EAST BY TAU 24 AND
ALLOW TC 20P TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. LAND INTERACTION THROUGH TAU 6
WILL CAUSE TC 20P TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW TC 20P TO
RE-INTENSIFY AT A STEADY TO RAPID PACE BEYOND TAU 6. TC 20P WILL
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS BY TAU 48. TC 20P WILL MAKE
LANDFALL IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 AND THEN BEGIN
TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR, BUT JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 12.8S 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 12.9S 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.1S 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 13.7S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.3S 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 16.2S 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 19.2S 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 141.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ERODE AS IT REMAINED
OVER CAPE YORK PENINSULA. RAIN BANDS COLLAPSED AND UNRAVELED AS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BECAME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED LLC
IN THE WEIPA COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY WIND AND SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS
AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEGRADATION EVIDENT ON THE EIR AND RADAR
ANIMATIONS. DESPITE THE LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
RADIAL OUTFLOW, TC 20P IS ERODING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. TC 20P IS
IN A COL BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. IT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE STR
REORIENTS, BUILDS AND ASSUMES STEERING, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE GOC
COAST NEAR BORROLOOLA BEFORE TAU 96. AFTERWARD, THE TC WILL TURN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES ANEW. VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (32C) IN THE GOC IN ADDITION TO THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
UP TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
TRACK DUE TO THE CURRENT QS MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND
211500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 202100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 12.9S 141.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 141.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 13.1S 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.5S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.1S 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.0S 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.3S 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 20.7S 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 141.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED OVER WATER IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND STRUCTURE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE WEIPA COMPOSITE
RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
PGTW/KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45KTS). THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER WATER IT WILL BEGIN AN
INTENSIFICATION TREND. TC 20P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
WITH THE LATTER BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD, ACROSS THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
BORROLOOLA AFTER TAU 72. AFTER LANDFALL, THE TC WILL TURN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES TO THE
EAST. VERY WARM ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (32 CELSIUS)
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL
PROMOTE RAPID INTENSIFICATION UP TO 115 KNOTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD,
LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY THE SYSTEM TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING TO OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z AND 212100Z.
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 13.0S 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 13.4S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.0S 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 14.7S 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.7S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.6S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.0S 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 141.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN OCCLUDED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT IN THE WEIPA RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW/KNES/ADRM DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45KTS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 20P IS LOCATED BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
WHICH HAS CAUSED A QUASI STATIONARY STORM MOTION OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. WITH THE LATTER BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS, IT WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING
FEATURE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL 130NM NORTHWEST
OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS
THE STR TRANSITS TO THE EAST. VERY WARM ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (32 CELSIUS) IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA COMBINED WITH
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION UP TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, PERSISTENT
LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER THE QUASI-STATIONARY NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM IS NOT CAPTURED IN ANY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THUS LENDING
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 13.3S 141.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 141.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 13.9S 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.5S 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.4S 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.8S 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 20.6S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 23.6S 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 141.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
SLOWLY DRIFTS IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AFTER IT EXITED FROM
THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME
RAGGED AND MORE ENLARGED BUT REMAINS INTACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MORE COMPACT LLC IN THE
210606Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT FIT
INSIDE THE LLC FEATURES IN THE MSI ANIMATION AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP
FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T3.5/45KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE
CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE GOC UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA AROUND TAU 42. AFTERWARD, THE TC WILL
TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR
RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GOC WILL INTENSIFY
THE SYSTEM UP TO 85 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND
INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU
96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z,
220300Z AND 220900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 13.7S 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 14.4S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.0S 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.1S 137.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.5S 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.0S 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 23.8S 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 140.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 81 NM
SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS
IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AFTER IT EXITED FROM THE CAPE YORK
PENINSULA. THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND BECAME MORE
SYMMETRIC BUT ALSO OBSCURED THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 210952Z SSMIS NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE THAT FIT INSIDE
THE LLC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM WEIPA. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS
FROM PGTW AND KNES AND T4.0/65KTS FROM ADRM AND REFLECTS THE IMPROVED
STATE OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA AROUND TAU
36. AFTER TAU 48, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS IN THE GOC WILL PROMOTE A MODEST INTENSIFICATION OF UP TO
80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS
WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z, 220900Z AND 221500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 14.1S 140.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 140.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 14.8S 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.6S 137.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.8S 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.2S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.4S 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 139.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA. THE INTENSITY
OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED, OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 20P HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, PRESENTING INCREASING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IN RECENT
ANIMATED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. TRACK SPEED HAS ALSO
ACCELERATED IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. TC 20P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN
TAU 24 AND TAU 36. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOW CONSIDERED LIKELY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND, SUPPORTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXPECTED
STORM TRACK, AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
221500Z AND 222100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 14.4S 139.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 139.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 15.1S 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.1S 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.4S 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.9S 135.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 22.0S 136.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 139.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM AUSTRALIA, A 220000Z
SATELLITE POSITION FIX FROM PGTW AND A 220002Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE.
THE INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS SET BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 KNOTS ON THE LOW END
(220000Z PGTW DVORAK) TO 87 KNOTS ON THE HIGH END (222103Z SATCON).
TC 20P IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT STEERING
RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING AROUND
TAU 24. TC 20P HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE FIRST HINTS
OF A DEVELOPING EYE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN
THE NEAR-TERM GIVEN THE RECENT INTENSITY TREND, SUPPORTIVE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER. PEAK
INTENSITY, EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE TAU 12 AND TAU 24 FORECAST
TIMES, MAY EXCEED 100 KNOTS. FOLLOWING LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL
SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK, AND THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 139.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 139.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 15.6S 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.7S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.2S 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.9S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 138.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
NORTH OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS
WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED
LLC IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 85KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS TO
T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
(5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY
WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
BORROLOOLA AROUND TAU 18. AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD
DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100
KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL
RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 25
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 138.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 138.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 15.9S 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.1S 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.4S 135.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.0S 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 138.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 101 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA (GOC) AS THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED AND RAIN BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD A
PINHOLE BUT PROMINENT EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT STACKED DIRECTLY OVER A
COMPACT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM
MORNINGTON ISLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95KTS IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS TO T5.5/102KTS FROM PGTW, ADRM, AND
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (32C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE GOC. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR BORROLOOLA JUST AFTER TAU 12.
AFTER TAU 36, THE TC WILL TURN SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO THE AUSTRALIAN
OUTBACK AS THE STR RECEDES EASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
GOC WILL INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM UP TO 100 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AND DISSIPATE
THE CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 138.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 138.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 16.6S 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 17.8S 135.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 19.4S 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 21.3S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 137.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED EYE. AS SHOWN
IN THE RECENT UW-CIMSS M-PERC GRAPHIC, A 221635Z AMSR2 89GHZ
COMPOSITE IMAGE AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TC 20P IS
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH A SMALL INNER EYE AND
MOAT FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A LARGER SECONDARY EYEWALL. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5
(102 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 20P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 06 AND START WEAKENING STEADILY AS IT TRACKS
INLAND WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48. BASED ON THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (TREVOR) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 137.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 137.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 17.3S 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 18.7S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 20.3S 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.4S 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 137.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (TREVOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 438 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL
5NM EYE. A 230011Z MHS 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A
COMPACT EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MCROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH IS
STRADDLING THE COASTLINE. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE MORNINGTON
ISLAND RADAR INDICATES THE EYEWALL IS FRAGMENTING AS THE CENTER
TRACKS INLAND ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE REMAINS VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 (102
KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. BASED ON THE EYE EVIDENT IN MSI, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 20P IS TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN
SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 24 AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND WITH DISSIPATION
EXPECTED BY TAU 48. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC MODEL
VORTEX TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_trevor_jtwc_advisories.htm
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