Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone WALLACE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2018-2019 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone WALLACE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 040130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9S 131.2E TO 11.2S 126.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1S 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 133.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4S 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM NORTH OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING NOTCH FEATURE. A 032117Z WINDSAT 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEFINITIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLC FROM THE SOUTH. 97S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 050130Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 050300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040121APR2019// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 11.4S 128.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 128.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 11.9S 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 12.4S 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.8S 122.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.4S 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.9S 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.9S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.8S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 128.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAST-CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WITH ITS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD, PARTIALLY EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC AND ON A RAGGED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE RADAR LOOP FROM DARWIN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY OF T2.5/35KTS FROM ADRM AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RECENT SMAP IMAGE SHOWING 32KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29C ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH (STH) TO THE SOUTHEAST ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AS THE STH ADJUSTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS BY TAU 96, AIDED BY SSTS RISING UP TO 30C IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN OFF PORT HEDLAND. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND DOWN TO 50KTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK WITH ECMWF THE RIGHT-OF- TRACK OUTLIER BEYOND TAU 48 AND NAVGEM THE LEFT-OF TRACK OUTLIER BEYOND TAU 36. IN VIEW OF THESE AND GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC WARNING TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z. 2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 040130).// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 12.0S 127.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.0S 127.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 12.3S 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 12.9S 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 13.4S 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.9S 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.7S 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.4S 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 19.2S 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 126.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS ISOLATED, DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SHALLOW RAIN BANDS. THIS POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A NOTCH FEATURE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IN MULTIPLE CHANNELS OF A 050539Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH APRF AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE (29-30 CELSIUS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. BY TAU 96, VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CONSIDERABLY CAUSING WEAKENING TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120. SEVERAL MEMBERS IN THE CONSENSUS DEPICT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE STR AXIS, CAUSING A SIMILAR SHIFT IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECASTS. NAVGEM CONTINUES TO SHOW A POLEWARD TURN AROUND TAU 24 AND REMAINS AN OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 11.8S 126.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 126.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 12.1S 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.6S 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.0S 120.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.8S 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.5S 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.8S 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.9S 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 126.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (TWENTYTHREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050955Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE SSMIS IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ARE MARGINAL OVERALL THANKS TO HIGH (25- 30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 23S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 48, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE TC ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 BUT THERE IS A CHANCE VWS WILL REMAIN STRONG, SUPPRESSING INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT, BUT SPREAD REMAINS HIGH (ABOUT 468 NM BETWEEN ECMWF AND NAVGEM AT TAU 120). ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE NAVGEM DEPICTS A MORE POLEWARD TRACK, OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENSION OF THE STR AXIS BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE HIGH SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 11.5S 125.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S 125.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 11.9S 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.5S 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.0S 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.7S 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.3S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.3S 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.8S 111.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 11.6S 125.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 311 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 051647Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BURGEONING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO, AS HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PUSHING THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BETWEEN THE PGTW AND APRF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS), WHILE A 051244Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 45 KTS. DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH (25-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE HINDERING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 96, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, PUSHING TC 23S TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS, AND MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE ECMWF SOLUTION HAS CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NORTH OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND THE ONLY MODEL TRACK THAT NOW DEPICTS LANDFALL INTO NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. HOWEVER, THE NAVGEM TRACK WOULD DIRECTLY OPPOSE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS THEREFORE DEEMED UNREALISTIC. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 11.7S 125.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 125.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 12.1S 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 12.7S 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.4S 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.1S 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.6S 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.7S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.4S 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 124.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) IMAGE DEPICTS A STRUGGLING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SOMEWHAT OBSCURED LLCC IN THE MSI IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS BETWEEN THE PGTW AND APRF AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS), WHILE A 052005Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 52 KTS. DESPITE EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE HINDERING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 36, THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 96, LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, PUSHING TC 23S TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, MODERATE-TO-STRONG VWS, AND MARGINAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND. THE ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND DEPICTS LANDFALL AROUND TAU 96 NEAR PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA. THE LATEST RUN OF GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL TO BRUSH THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA NEAR LEARMONTH. THESE MODELS DO NOT BUILD THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH IN AS QUICKLY AS DO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE NORTH OF CONSENSUS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NORTHERN MODEL GROUPING OF ECMWF, UKMET, AND GALWEM, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT TRACK SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 060900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 060600Z --- NEAR 12.3S 124.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 124.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.7S 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.3S 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.0S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.9S 117.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.2S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.9S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.4S 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 060900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 123.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 833 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 060502Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE WEST DUE TO THE STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 40-45 KNOT WINDS, WHICH COINCIDES WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND APRF. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 123NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPLITS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 430NM AT TAU 120. THE BULK OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR WHILE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A STEADY WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE BREAK, WHICH ALL MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER TAU 72; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES OVER LEARMONTH AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 123.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 123.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 13.0S 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.7S 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.4S 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.2S 117.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.3S 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.0S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.5S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 123.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 061253Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SPLITS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 380NM AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR. THE BULK OF THE MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR WHILE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE INDICATE A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE BREAK, WHICH ALL MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER TAU 72; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF STRONG WESTERLIES OVER LEARMONTH AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 062100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 13.1S 121.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 121.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.6S 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.4S 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.2S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.9S 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.9S 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.6S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.0S 110.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 121.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 709 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IN THE EIR LOOP. A 061730Z AMSR-2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE POSITION AND REVEALS A RAGGED LLCC AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 110NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE LATE-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX, WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM, WHILE ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED, AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND LATER, RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BRING INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 310NM AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RECURVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR. GALWEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE BREAK BETWEEN THE STRS WHILE ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND NOW GFS INDICATE A STEADY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE BREAK IN THE STRS TO DEVELOP BY TAU 72 EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, WHICH DOES NOT PREDICT THE BREAK UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE GFS SOLUTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BREAK, FAVORING THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW OR SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE STR TO THE WEST AS DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCES INSTEAD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST SLOWS TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER- LEVEL WESTERLIES, AND CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS. IT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY THE OUTLIER NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z --- NEAR 12.8S 120.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.8S 120.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 13.2S 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.1S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.9S 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.5S 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.4S 112.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.0S 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.8S 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070300Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 120.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DIMINISHED DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP, AND ON A 062232Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWING A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW REFLECTIVITY FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, THOUGH THE APRF ESTIMATE INCREASED TO T3.5 (55 KTS) AND A 062233Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 48 KTS. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA THROUGH TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PHASE OF THE FORECAST WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. TC 23S SHOULD SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS VWS GRADUALLY DECREASES, SUPPORTED BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS). THE LATE-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX, WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ERODING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE EAST AND BRINGING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM, WHILE ANOTHER STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST; HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED, AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOWER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW FROM A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST, AND LATER, RIDGING THAT BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL BRING INCREASED VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 48 WITH A LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, ABOUT 310 NM AT TAU 120 EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH ERRONEOUSLY RECURVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE STR. GALWEM, THE UKMET MODEL, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE BREAK BETWEEN THE STRS WHILE ECMWF, THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, AND GFS INDICATE A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK, AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS TRENDED NORTH TOWARDS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ALL MODELS FORECAST THE BREAK IN THE STRS TO DEVELOP BY TAU 72 EXCEPT FOR ECMWF, WHICH DOES NOT PREDICT THE BREAK UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. THE GFS SOLUTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE BREAK, FAVORING THE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OR SOUTHERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW FROM THE STR TO THE WEST AS DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCES INSTEAD. ADDITIONALLY, THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS STAY NORTH OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND MAINTAIN A FASTER TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, POSITIONED BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS, AND SLOWS AT LATER TAUS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES MOVING OVERHEAD. IT IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTHWARD BY THE OUTLIER NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 070900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 070600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 119.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 119.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.5S 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.5S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.4S 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.1S 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.7S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.1S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 070900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1S 119.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 648 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070545Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE CENTER AND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. DUE TO THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED CONSERVATIVELY AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO T3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SST (30-31C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 105NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 071500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 13.2S 118.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 118.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 14.0S 117.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 15.0S 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.7S 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.1S 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.1S 110.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.0S 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 118.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 608 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CLUSTER OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 070956Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE CENTER AND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SST (30-31C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 48, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 13.7S 117.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S 117.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.8S 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 15.7S 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.1S 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.2S 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.4S 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.9S 105.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 117.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 557 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 071531Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-REFLECTIVITY LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING THE LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS THE LLCC IS STILL OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO 3.5 (45 TO 55 KNOTS), AND A 071343Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30- 31 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 24, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEGRADE AFTER TAU 36 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING VWS, DRIER AIR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36, AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 116.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 116.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 16.2S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.8S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.2S 112.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.4S 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.2S 107.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.7S 103.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 116.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PERSISTING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 072220Z SSMIS COLORPCT 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS BETTER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING THE LOW- REFLECTIVITY LLCC IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 TO 4.0 (45 TO 65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND APRF, A 072220Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 53 KTS, AND A 072340Z AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS), ALLOWING FOR THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. TC 23S HAS A NARROW WINDOW TO INTENSIFY BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. IT IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS BY TAU 12, THEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, INCREASING VWS, DRIER AIR, AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM OVER NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ALONG- TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 48. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING DRAGGED SOUTH BY NAVGEM. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AHEAD OF AND NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, HEDGED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, AT LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 080900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z --- NEAR 15.4S 116.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 116.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.2S 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 16.7S 114.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.1S 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.3S 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.3S 107.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 080900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 116.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 434 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 080446Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES AN ORGANIZED LLCC WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO 4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH DECREASING VWS (10-15 KNOTS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, IN ADDITION TO WARM SST (29-30C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DEGRADE AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 16.1S 115.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 115.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.8S 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 17.3S 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 17.6S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.8S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.7S 105.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 115.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 384 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEVELOPING EYE. A 081055Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 50-60NM, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MIDGET WITH A DEVELOPING EYE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 3.0 (45 KNOTS) TO 4.0 (65 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH DECREASING VWS (15 KNOTS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IN ADDITION TO WARM SST (29-30C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH CONTINUES TO ERRONEOUSLY RECURVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 45NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS STILL EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 65 KNOTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DETERIORATE BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 16.7S 115.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 115.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 17.1S 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.4S 112.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.8S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.9S 108.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.8S 104.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 114.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081728Z ATMS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A SMALL, APPROXIMATELY 50-60NM, SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS, WHICH IS ABOVE THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES AND THE 081728Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 57 KNOTS, HOWEVER, IT IS BELOW THE 1930Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 74 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE MAINTAINED WITH LOW VWS (15 KNOTS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, IN ADDITION TO WARM SST (29-30C). TC 23S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, TC 23S SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- LEVEL STR LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 50NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12 AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO DETERIORATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, HIGHER VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THUS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 017// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z --- NEAR 16.2S 114.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 114.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.5S 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.8S 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.0S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.3S 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 16.9S 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 090000Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 082112Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS. TC 23S IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KNOTS) WHICH IS OFFSET BY AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 23S IS TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STR WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS TC 23S TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE TC 23S TO STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 16.2S 114.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 114.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.4S 113.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 16.8S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.0S 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 114.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITHIN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH ASCAT DATA FROM 090101Z AND 090213Z, WHICH INDICATED 35 TO 45 KNOT WINDS CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. TC 23S HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH HAS DISPLACED THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. TC 23S IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE AND DISSIPATE UNDER PERSISTENT VWS. BASED ON OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND AND EXPECTED VWS PATTERN, THE FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 36 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH DEPICTS A MORE INTENSE SYSTEM TRACKING POLEWARD THROUGHOUT AND BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND ANTICIPATED IMPACT OF PERSISTENT VWS, THE NAVGEM OUTLIER SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED VERY UNLIKELY. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.2S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.6S 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.7S 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 112.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MICROWAVE EYE IN A 091521Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ADDITIONAL ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH A 091710Z SATCON OF 41 KNOTS AND AN 091910Z ADT OF 39 KNOTS. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 020// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 113.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 113.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 17.2S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.6S 109.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.7S 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 112.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD MICROWAVE EYE IN A 091521Z 37GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ADDITIONAL ESTIMATES SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WITH A 091710Z SATCON OF 41 KNOTS AND AN 091910Z ADT OF 39 KNOTS. TC 23S WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG (20-30 KNOT) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 23S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE RIDGE PERIPHERY. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACKING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT DISSIPATES. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.// ======================================================================== WTXS31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 021// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 16.8S 112.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 112.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 17.2S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.5S 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 111.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23S (WALLACE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 344 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DATA-T OF T2.5 AND T2.5 CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES FROM KNES AND APRF. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 20-25 KNOTS, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS TO 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE SHEAR, TC 23S IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 13 FEET.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_wallace_jtwc_advisories.htm
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