WTXS21 PGTW 20050115 15:00z COR
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/151451ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5S0 118.9E9 TO 15.0S6 111.7E0
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
151330Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0
117.5E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.3S8
121.7E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S0 117.5E4, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CON-
VECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDI-
CATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FAVOR-
ABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161500Z3.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING ERRORS IN RE-
MARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050115 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151451ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z5 --- NEAR 15.4S0 116.5E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S0 116.5E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z3 --- 15.7S3 114.1E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 15.8S4 110.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 15.9S5 107.2E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 16.1S8 104.4E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 115.9E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 151649Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30,
35, AND 45 KNOTS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE. TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE LLCC.
AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, (WTXS21 PGTW 151500). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050116 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z3 --- NEAR 15.7S3 113.6E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 113.6E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z6 --- 16.0S7 110.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 16.5S2 107.6E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 17.1S9 104.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 17.5S3 101.3E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 112.9E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURR-
ENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN-
TENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO SOME EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE LLCC. AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SOLUTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z3 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND
170900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050116 21:00z    
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 003    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z6 --- NEAR 15.7S3 111.4E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S3 111.4E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z4 --- 15.8S4 108.7E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 16.0S7 106.0E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 16.0S7 103.5E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z8 --- 16.2S9 100.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 110.7E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
171730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF THE
DECREASING CONVECTION. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND
172100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050117 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z4 --- NEAR 15.5S1 107.3E1
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 107.3E1
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z7 --- 15.5S1 104.0E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z5 --- 16.1S8 100.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 106.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 170530Z6
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS ESTI-
MATED BASED ON PERSISTENCE. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EAST
OF THE DECREASING CONVECTION. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
WARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL STEER-
ING RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE WEAKENING AND TO DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z4 IS 07 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MON
ITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_200510_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]