Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DAREN : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS21 PGTW 20050117 09:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/170921ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2S0 84.9E1 TO 10.4S5 81.8E7
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
170900Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4
84.5E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.1S8
85.8E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S4 84.5E7, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INC-
REASING CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CEN-
TER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
180930Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050118 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z9 --- NEAR 11.6S8 82.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S8 82.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.4S7 80.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 13.2S6 77.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 14.5S0 74.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 16.1S8 71.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.8S0 82.2E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
172330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANI-
MATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS ORGANIZING CONVECTION
OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). TC 11S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z9 IS 08 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 170921Z9JAN05 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 170930) NEXT WARNINGS AT
181500Z5 AND 190300Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050118 09:00z
DIRNSA FT GEORGE MEADE MD//DDI-LIZ/P313/Q332/WWEA//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z5 --- NEAR 11.0S2 83.1E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S2 83.1E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 11.5S7 80.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 12.3S6 77.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 13.7S1 74.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 15.0S6 72.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z8 POSITION NEAR 11.1S3 82.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 665 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 180530Z7 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER
DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED FURTHER EQUATORWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND THIS
WARNING REFLECTS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. TC 11S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SLOWLY AS THE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z5 IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z2 AND 190900Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z8 --- NEAR 12.4S7 80.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S7 80.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 13.4S8 78.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.8S3 75.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 16.0S7 72.7E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 16.9S6 69.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.7S0 80.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181730Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45
KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEPENING CONVECTION AND
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 11S IS RAPIDLY
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SLOWLY AS THE OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEUTRAL TO FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 181800Z8 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z9 AND
192100Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050119 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z6 --- NEAR 13.3S7 77.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 77.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 14.7S2 73.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 16.2S9 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.3S1 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.1S0 65.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190900Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 76.2E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1190 NM EAST-NORTH-
EAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 190530Z8 MULTISPEC-
TRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A STEADY RATE IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
AND CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME
DEEPER AS WELL AS MORE CONSOLIDATED. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CRESTS THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MORE UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z6 IS 09 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z3 AND 200900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050119 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DAREN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z9 --- NEAR 15.2S8 74.2E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S8 74.2E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 16.8S5 71.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.8S6 67.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.7S6 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 19.4S4 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z3 POSITION NEAR 15.6S2 73.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DAREN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 990 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191730Z1
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS WITH A 05 KNOT DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO REFLECT LOWER DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
A WEAKENING TREND. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND MAINTAIN INTENSITY, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z9 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z1 AND 202100Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DAREN) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 16.0S7 71.9E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 71.9E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 17.1S9 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 18.0S9 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.8S7 63.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.4S4 60.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 71.2E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DAREN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
885 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RE-
CENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS BE-
COMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A HIGHER VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET EACH OTHER AND TC 11S IS FORE-
CAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200600Z8 IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z5 AND
210900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARN-
INGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (DAREN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 16.2S9 69.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 69.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 16.5S2 66.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 16.3S0 68.5E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (DAREN) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
700 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECOUPLE FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND IS EXPOSED TO
THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1
IS 08 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_daren_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
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