Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ERNEST : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS22 PGTW 20050119 13:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191321Z JAN 05//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181821Z JAN 05//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 182030)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 270
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.2S3 50.1E6 TO 14.7S2 42.9E5 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191130Z5 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 49.2E5. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2S3
52.9E6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S3 49.2E5, APPROXIMATELY 715 NM NORTH-
WEST OF MAURITIUS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMA-
GERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND RADIAL OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED. ADDITIONALLY, MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT DECOUP-
LING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A
DECREASE IN 850 MB VORTICITY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
201330Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050120 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z8 --- NEAR 12.6S9 45.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S9 45.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 14.0S5 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 15.4S0 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 17.1S9 41.9E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 19.2S2 41.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200900Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 45.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 200530Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 12S HAS DEVELOPED
VERY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS A DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
BECAME ESTABLISHED AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE SLI-
GHTLY INCREASED. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A WELL DEVELOPED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THE BEGINNING DEVELOP-
MENT OF AN EYE IS EVIDENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOP-
MENT IS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVI-
RONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CONTINUED GOOD OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z8
IS 16 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPAC-
METOCCEN 191321ZJAN2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20050120 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z1 --- NEAR 14.2S7 43.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 43.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z9 --- 16.1S8 42.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.2S1 41.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 20.5S7 41.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 22.7S1 42.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
202100Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.7S2 43.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 201730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. TC 12S HAS CONTINUED TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS ENANCED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL OUTLFOW AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 201426Z5 TRMM PASS INDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC
WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TC 12S THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORABLE AS UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND CONTINUED OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z1 IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 210900Z2 AND 212100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
11S (DAREN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20050121 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z9 --- NEAR 16.0S7 42.1E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 42.1E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z2 --- 18.4S3 41.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 20.3S5 41.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 22.2S6 41.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 24.0S6 42.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
210900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 41.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 210530Z1 ENHANCED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77
KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS BRINGING FAVOR-
ABLE VENTILATION FOR TC 12S. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CON-
TINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12S
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE WARM WATERS OF
THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 210600Z9 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z6 AND
220900Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20050121 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z2 --- NEAR 18.1S0 42.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1S0 42.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z0 --- 20.3S5 42.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 22.3S7 42.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 24.4S0 43.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 26.4S2 45.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.6S5 42.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM WEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 211730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FAVORABLE VENTILATION FOR TC 12S.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z2 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 220900Z3 AND 222100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050122 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z0 --- NEAR 20.5S7 42.0E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 42.0E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z3 --- 22.9S3 42.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 25.1S8 44.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 27.1S0 46.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 29.7S8 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
220900Z3 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 42.2E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
220530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL
FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC
12S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF MADAGASCAR, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
GOOD OUTFLOW WILL KEEP THE INTENSITY STRONG DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS, THEN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SST WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 48, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
220600Z0 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z7 AND 230900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20050122 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z3 --- NEAR 22.9S3 42.4E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 42.4E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z1 --- 25.5S2 43.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 28.2S2 46.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 31.6S0 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 35.7S5 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
222100Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.6S1 42.8E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
350 NM SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 221730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE CLOUD
DENSE COVER HAS CLOSED OVER THE EYE, HOWEVER, RECENT MICRO-
WAVE SATELLITE REVEALS A WELL DEFINED EYE. TC 12S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
MADAGASCAR, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AS IT EXITS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND ENTERS AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BY TAU 48, TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO HAVE COMPLETED
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z4 AND 232100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20050123 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z1 --- NEAR 24.7S3 43.9E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 43.9E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z4 --- 27.5S4 46.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 30.7S0 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 34.5S2 56.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 36 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z3 --- 38.3S4 64.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
230900Z4 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1 44.7E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 230530Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTEN-
SITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS
FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY REVEALS TC 12S IS SITUATED ALONG THE MADAGASCAR COAST.
ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH (MSWT) BEGINS TO CONTROL THE STEERING FLOW.
TC 12S IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE MSWT
AFTER TAU 24 AND START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MSWT DECOUPLES THE CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z8 AND
240900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20050123 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ERNEST) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z4 --- NEAR 27.0S9 46.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.0S9 46.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z2 --- 30.3S6 50.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z5 --- 34.1S8 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
232100Z8 POSITION NEAR 27.8S7 47.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12S (ERNEST) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
480 NM SOUTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM
ALL FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TC 12S IS IN THE FIRST
STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. TC 12S IS FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY TRACK POLEWARD AND COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY TAU 12. THE INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECOUPLES THE
CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 231800Z4 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
13S (TIM) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_ernest_jtwc_advisories.htm
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