WTXS21 PGTW 20050203 14:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 031421ZFEB2005//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21
/PGTW 031400).//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.7S0 58.8E1 TO 26.3S1 56.3E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031130Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.3S7 58.4E7. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4S6
63.1E0, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3S7 58.4E7, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 030949Z5 AMSR-E PASS
ALSO DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
WITH INDICATION OF A POSSIBLE EYE FORMATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR EXISTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVING ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041430Z2.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 168.1W6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050203 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031421ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z2 --- NEAR 23.0S5 58.0E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 58.0E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z0 --- 24.2S8 57.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 25.6S3 56.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 27.1S0 56.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 28.7S7 56.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.3S8 57.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHEAST
OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4 EN-
HANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A STRONG
BANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, BUT THEN WEAKEN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z2
IS 19 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
031421ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 031430)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3 AND 042100Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GERARD) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z0 --- NEAR 24.7S3 57.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S3 57.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z3 --- 27.4S3 57.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 30.8S1 57.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 35.3S1 60.7E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 39.0S2 65.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 25.4S1 57.5E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GERARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040530Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65
KNOTS. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN IT'S CURRENT INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GERARD) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z3 --- NEAR 28.5S5 58.5E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.5S5 58.5E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z1 --- 33.2S8 60.6E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 38.0S1 64.8E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 42.2S8 70.8E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 29.7S8 59.0E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GERARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 041730Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRACKING POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TRANSI-
ENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 14S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL
SOUTHEAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AFTER TAU 12 AND FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 050900Z4 AND 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (GERARD) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z1 --- NEAR 33.8S4 62.4E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   REPEAT POSIT: 33.8S4 62.4E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z4 --- 39.1S3 66.7E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 39 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z2 --- 44.5S3 74.2E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 35.1S9 63.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 14S (GERARD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 835 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 050530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1 IS 08 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_gerard_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]