WTPS22 PGTW 20050205 18:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051821Z FEB 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S6 139.3E6 TO 17.9S7 140.6E1 WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 051430Z3 INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0 140.0E5. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2
139.0E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S0 140.0E5, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 050833Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG NORTHER-
LY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WITH INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRES-
SURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1000 MB. DUE TO THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOP-
MENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061830Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050206 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/051821Z FEB 05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z6 --- NEAR 14.0S5 140.0E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 140.0E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z9 --- 14.9S4 139.6E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 15.9S5 139.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.8S5 138.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.6S4 138.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 139.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (HARVEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
052330Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 30, AND 35
KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. A
052105Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH INCREASED WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 16P IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS
IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY SHOULD SLOW-
LY RISE DUE TO DECREASED SURFACE INFLOW AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 051821Z7 FEB 05 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW 051830). NEXT WARNINGS AT
061500Z2 AND 070300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050206 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z9 --- NEAR 14.8S3 139.6E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 139.6E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z7 --- 15.4S0 139.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.1S8 139.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.0S8 139.0E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 17.7S5 139.3E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 139.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (HARVEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
385 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION. A 060449Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY TAU 36. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 070300Z0 AND 071500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P
(MEENA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050207 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z7 --- NEAR 15.3S9 138.5E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 138.5E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z0 --- 16.1S8 138.1E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.1S9 138.0E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
                                   OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 17.9S7 138.4E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z9 --- 18.5S4 139.5E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 138.4E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (HARVEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM
NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM ALL
FIXING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND A
062039Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SURFACE CIRCULATION.
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, TC 16P IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
INTO AUSTRALIA. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 24
DUE TO DISRUPTED INFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
071500Z3 AND 080300Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE  15P (MEENA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20050207 15:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNING NR 004A
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z0 --- NEAR 16.7S4 136.8E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S4 136.8E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z8 --- 17.6S4 136.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z1 --- 18.4S3 136.7E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 136.7E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (HARVEY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
30 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BORROLOOLA, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 EHNANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM ALL FIXING AGENCIES. TC
16P HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN AUSTRALIA AND IS
FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. WARNING MESSAGE AND GRAPHIC CORRECTED TO REMOVE WIND
RADII OVER LAND.//
=========================================================================

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_harvey_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]