Updated: 17 June 2020
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone KERRY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone KERRY Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20050104 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042051Z JAN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 150 NM RADIUS OF 9.4S3 173.5E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 041925Z1 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 174.3E5. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.1S0
174.9E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S2 174.3E5 APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. RECENT MICROWAVE
AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050105 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 042051ZJAN05//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 10.2S3 173.7E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 173.7E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 11.6S8 172.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 13.3S7 171.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 14.4S9 169.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.0S6 167.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.6S7 173.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION
IS BASED ON 042330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MICRO-
WAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-
WARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING POORLY ON THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE TRACK CONFIDENCE. TC 08P
SHOULD INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MOD-
ERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 09 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 042100 ). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050105 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 12.5S8 172.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S8 172.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 14.0S5 171.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.2S8 169.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.2S9 166.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.2S0 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 172.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 695 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED AND BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS LEAVING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-
WEST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF
FIJI. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATO-
LOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 AND 061500Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050106 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 13.7S1 171.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7S1 171.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.0S6 169.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 15.7S3 167.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 16.5S2 164.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 171.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST-
WARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED
TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. TC 08P IS FORE-
CAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z6 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WAR-
NINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050106 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z9 --- NEAR 15.1S7 169.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1S7 169.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.2S9 166.9E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.1S9 164.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 17.7S5 161.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 17.7S5 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.4S0 168.7E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30, 35 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE SYSTEM HAS LOST SOME
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 060626Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS
DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC SURFACE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
TC 08P WITH WEAKER WINDS ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z9 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z0 AND 071500Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050107 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.3S0 166.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S0 166.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.3S1 164.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.1S0 161.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.0S0 160.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.3S3 159.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 166.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE
AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS IT PASSED THROUGH VANUATU.
A RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT LAMAP, VANUATU REPORTED
30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WHILE BAUERFIELD TO THE SOUTH REPORTED
A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1000.3 MB. A 061900Z6 QUIK-
SCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO RE-
SIDE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, WBAR AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050107 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.8S6 163.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 163.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 18.7S6 161.4E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 19.2S2 159.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 19.3S3 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 19.2S2 157.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 18.0S9 163.0E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
310 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, 55 AND 77
KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION AT
SURPRISE ISLAND REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF
998.3 MB. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT
A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050108 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z8 --- NEAR 17.8S6 160.6E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 160.6E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z1 --- 18.2S1 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.3S2 158.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.3S2 157.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.3S2 157.4E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 160.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
425 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45, 65, AND 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 072140Z4 SSMI
PASS AT 85 GHZ DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL, CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 08P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TO SLOW DOWN TO NEAR QUASISTATIONARY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IN THE
POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, WBAR AND NCEP GFS
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MM5 IS A SIGNFICANT
POLEWARD OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS WITH LESS
EMPHASIS ON MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050108 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z1 --- NEAR 18.6S5 159.6E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S5 159.6E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z9 --- 18.9S8 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.9S8 158.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 19.0S0 158.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 19.3S3 157.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 159.4E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED. A 080721Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THE SURFACE
WIND FIELD HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. A 081013Z3 SSMI PASS AT
85 GHZ DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 08P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. MODEL
DEPICTED STEERING ENVIRONMENTS DISAGREE AMONG THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR
THE TRACK OF TC 08P HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2 AND 091500Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050109 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z9 --- NEAR 18.3S2 159.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 159.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z2 --- 18.4S3 158.7E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.5S4 158.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.6S5 157.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 18.8S7 157.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 159.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF POUM, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A 11 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. TC 08P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TRACK IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN SLOW AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT
WEAK. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION.
MODEL DEPICTED STEERING ENVIRONMENTS ARE IN VERY POOR
AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH 3 CLUSTERS
REMAINING. UKMET EGRR AND NCEP GFS STEERING THE SYSTEM
NORTHWEST, TOWARD THE EQUATOR, WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE ALTERING TO THE RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. GFDN
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN
THE TWO RIDGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS TRACKS
THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING TRACK SPEED AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z9 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050109 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z2 --- NEAR 18.3S2 159.2E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 159.2E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z1 --- 18.4S3 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.7S6 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 19.3S3 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.9S9 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 159.1E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
475 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 08P HAS BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN TWO MID-
LEVEL RIDGES. IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD AS A TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD CREATING A WEAKNESS FOR TC 08P TO TRACK
TOWARDS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY
OF 90 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4 AND
101500Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050110 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z1 --- NEAR 18.2S1 158.9E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 158.9E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z4 --- 18.6S5 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 19.4S4 159.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 20.3S5 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 21.4S7 160.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 158.8E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
500 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 08P IS QUASI-
STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
101500Z7 AND 110300Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050110 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 19.1S1 159.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 159.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 19.8S8 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 20.6S8 160.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 21.7S0 160.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 22.6S0 160.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 159.5E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
90 KNOTS. TC 08P HAS BEGUN TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL STEERING RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLE-
WARD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101200Z4 IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z5 AND 111500Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050111 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 19.2S2 159.1E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 159.1E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.7S7 158.9E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.2S4 158.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.7S9 158.2E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.1S4 157.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 159.0E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 102 KNOTS AND A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOW DEEP INFLOW OF COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY
AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF
HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNI-
FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050111 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 20.5S7 159.9E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S7 159.9E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 21.3S6 160.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 159.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 23.0S5 158.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 160.0E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
EASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSI-
TION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS AND A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND
NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DECREASING CONVECTION AND DEEP INFLOW OF COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-
WARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
STEADILY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRON-
MENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050112 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08P (KERRY) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 20.9S1 160.3E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9S1 160.3E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 21.6S9 160.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 160.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 25, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 08P
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND TO DISSIPATE
WITHIN 12 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3
IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_kerry_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
|