Updated: 17 June 2020
[Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone MEENA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone MEENA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20050203 14:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 031351ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
215 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.9S2 169.5W1 TO 17.6S4
163.2W2 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
METSAT IMAGERY AT 031130Z8 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 168.1W6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTH
EASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6
168.1W6 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 168.1W6, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041400Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050203 21:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 001A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z2 --- NEAR 13.6S0 167.1W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 167.1W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z0 --- 13.8S2 165.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 15.2S8 164.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.9S6 163.4W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.8S7 162.1W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
032100Z6 POSITION NEAR 13.6S0 166.7W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031730Z4
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30, 35 AND
45 KNOTS. THE 031719Z1 AMSU/B AND 031754Z0 SSM/I MICROWAVE IM-
AGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS RECENTLY
BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, INTENSIFYING SLOWLY IN AN ENVIR-
ONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE.
AFTER 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 031800Z2 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 031351ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 031400). NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z3
AND 042100Z7. JUSTIFIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED SPELLING
IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050204 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z0 --- NEAR 13.9S3 167.0W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 167.0W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 14.7S2 165.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 16.2S9 164.3W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 18.2S1 163.0W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 20.5S7 161.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 166.7W0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 040530Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
VENTILATION IN THE EQUATORWARD DIRECTION. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AS A MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. ALL AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND THE OUTFLOW FAVORABLE, SO THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS
OF NCEP GFS, NOGAPS, WBAR, AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z7 AND 050900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050204 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z3 --- NEAR 14.2S7 165.5W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 165.5W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z1 --- 15.3S9 164.5W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.7S4 163.8W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.7S6 162.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.4S7 161.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 165.2W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041730Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55, 65, AND 77 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW SOURCING FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYS-
TEM. DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST-
WARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. OUTFLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, HOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTI-
CAL WIND SHEAR WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFI-
CANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z3 IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z4
AND 052100Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050205 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z1 --- NEAR 14.8S3 163.8W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S3 163.8W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 16.2S9 162.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.3S2 161.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.2S5 160.4W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 24.2S8 158.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 163.5W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 050530Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD
OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING RIDGE. OUTFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, BUT WILL BE OFFSET BY A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION
RATE. BY TAU 48, TC 15P WILL BEGIN THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z1
IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z8 AND 060900Z5.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050205 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 16.6S3 162.7W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 162.7W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 18.9S8 161.6W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 21.7S0 160.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 24.5S1 157.7W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 26.9S7 153.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 162.4W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
051730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127
KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SIGNIFICANT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
TAHITI. DUE TO VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND THE FORMATION OF AN EYE,
THE INTENSITY OF TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 18.2S1 161.5W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S1 161.5W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 20.9S1 159.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 23.5S0 157.7W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 26.0S8 154.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 28.4S4 150.7W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.9S8 161.1W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DUAL
OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
EYE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE
EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO ENTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z9 AND 070900Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 21.4S7 159.0W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S7 159.0W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 24.7S3 155.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 27.5S4 150.6W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 30.0S3 145.5W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 32.4S9 139.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 22.2S6 158.0W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATEL-
LITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMA-
TED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A DECREASE IN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO MERGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050207 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 24.2S8 156.5W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S8 156.5W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 27.2S1 152.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 30.1S4 147.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 33.3S9 142.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 37.5S5 135.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 155.5W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
EAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 102 KNOTS. RECENT UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES A DECREASE IN OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN
OVERALL DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MERGE WITH THE BARO-
CLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. EXPECT
TRANSITION TO BE COMPLETE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z0 AND 080900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (HARVEY)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (MEENA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 26.9S7 151.2W9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S7 151.2W9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 29.9S0 145.6W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 27.7S6 149.8W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (MEENA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
550 NM SOUTH OF TAHITI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
32 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 071730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS
OF 50 KNOTS AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SYTEM IS FULLY INTEGRATED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDES AND HAS COMPLETED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 08 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
|
Document: tropical_cyclone_meena_jtwc_advisories.htm
Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]
|