Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone NANCY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone NANCY Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20050212 22:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/122151ZFEB2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
091 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 166.6W9 TO 14.0S5
163.4W4 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MET
SAT IMAGERY AT 121730Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 166.0W3. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTH
EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.4S8
167.0W4, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S2 166.0W3, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION OVER
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 121221Z9 AMSR-E PASS
DEPICTS A SMALL WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WITH CONTINUED CROSS-EQUATORIAL
OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 132200Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050213 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122151ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 13.0S4 164.5W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 164.5W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 14.0S5 163.5W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.4S0 162.9W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 17.0S8 162.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.5S4 162.2W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 164.2W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY EST-
IMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER MODERATELY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIG-
NIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 17 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES
AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 122151ZFEB2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 122200) NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND
140900Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/122151ZFEB2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 13.6S0 164.2W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S0 164.2W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 15.0S6 163.5W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 16.8S5 162.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 18.9S8 161.9W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 21.2S5 161.7W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 13.9S3 164.0W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
380 NM EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SLOWLY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNDER
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z3 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050214 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 14.0S5 163.5W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S5 163.5W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 14.9S4 162.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 16.5S2 162.2W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 19.0S0 161.9W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 21.9S2 162.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 14.2S7 163.3W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
EAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 140530Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING IN-
TENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90,
102, 115 AND 127 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH, WHICH HAS AIDED IN
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLIGHT-
LY SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS
WITH TC 19P. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z1 IS 56 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z8 AND 150900Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050214 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 160.9W6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 160.9W6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 17.6S4 159.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 20.1S3 159.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.0S4 159.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.5S0 160.2W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 160.5W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTH OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102, 115, AND
127 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SUSTAIN THE SYSTEM. TC 18P IS
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN
WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z5 AND 152100Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050215 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 19.2S2 158.7W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S2 158.7W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 21.2S5 158.7W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 22.9S3 159.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 24.2S8 159.9W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 25.3S0 158.8W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 158.7W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF RARATONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT OUT-
FLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BREAKDOWN IN DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE EYEWALL. DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TC 18P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD THEN BRIEFLY SOUTH-
SOUTH-WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A TRANSIENT MIDLATITUDE STEERING RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 18P WILL ALSO DECREASE ONCE IT APPROACHES THE TROUGH DUE TO
INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160300Z0 AND 161500Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF)
WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050215 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 20.3S5 158.3W7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S5 158.3W7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 22.4S8 158.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.9S4 159.4W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 25.0S7 160.1W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 26.3S1 160.0W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.8S0 158.4W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
100 NM NORTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 151730Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
77 AND 90 KNOTS. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK
POLEWARD THEN BEGIN TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF
A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFTER TAU 36. THE INTENSITY OF TC 18P
IS DECREASING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z6 AND 162100Z0. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PHNC) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050216 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z3 --- NEAR 22.0S4 159.3W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 159.3W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 23.8S3 158.8W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 25.9S6 157.9W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 28.0S0 156.3W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 29.9S0 153.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 159.2W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 55 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPID
DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCU-
LATION CENTER. TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD
AHEAD OF A TRANSIENT MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z0 AND
170900Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20050216 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (NANCY) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z6 --- NEAR 23.9S4 161.2W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 161.2W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 25.2S9 162.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.2S8 161.5W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (NANCY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS
WITH A 05 KNOT REDUCTION TO REFLECT A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND
AND FINAL-T ANALYSIS OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. TC 18P HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN DEEP CONVECTION
AND REFLECTS RAPID WEAKENING OF TC 18P. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER ALTHOUGH WELL ORGANIZED HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE
CONVECTION AND IS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION. THE REMNANTS OF TC 18P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 09 FEET.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (OLAF) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_nancy_jtwc_advisories.htm
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