WTXS31 PGTW 20040902 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010851ZSEP2004//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   020000Z2 --- NEAR 8.1S9 90.5E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 185 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S9 90.5E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z5 --- 8.7S5 90.2E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 9.3S2 89.6E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 9.8S7 89.1E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 10.7S8 88.5E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 8.2S0 90.4E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 970 NM
WEST OF JAKARTA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35, AND 45
KNOTS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED FOR THIS
SYSTEM, AS TC 01S TRACKS POLEWARD, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 16 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 010851Z SEP 2004
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 010900). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021500Z8 AND 030300Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040902 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PHOEBE) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021200Z5 --- NEAR 9.3S2 91.8E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S2 91.8E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z3 --- 10.2S3 92.0E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 10.7S8 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 11.3S5 91.3E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 11.9S1 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 9.5S4 91.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (PHOEBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 021130Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 AND 65 KNOTS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED FOR
THIS SYSTEM, AS TC 01S TRACKS POLEWARD, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN AND UKMET EGRR
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MOST DYNAMIC MODELS
KEEP THE SYSTEM QUASISTATIONARY AND THEN TRACK IT BACK EQUATOR-
WARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE
ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
021200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040903 03:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PHOEBE) WARNING NR 003A AMENDED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z3 --- NEAR 9.2S1 92.6E7
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S1 92.6E7
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z6 --- 9.7S6 92.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 10.1S2 92.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 10.5S6 92.6E7
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 11.0S2 92.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 9.3S2 92.7E8.
THIS WARNING HAS BEEN AMENDED TO ADJUST THE WARNING POSITION BASED ON
030300Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 021944Z1 TRMM PASS. TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 01S (PHOEBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHWEST
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 022330Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT WEAKNING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TC 01S. MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR POLEWARD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENISFICATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, UKMET EGRR AND WBAR ARE IN
POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MOST DYNAMIC MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM
QUASI-STATIONARY AND THEN TRACK IT EQUATORWARD USING THE RELATIVELY
WEAK 850 MB STEERING FLOW. WBAR IS THE POLEWARD OUTLIER, TRACKING THE
SYSTEM WITH THE STEERING FLOW AT 700 MB. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW.
JUSTIFICATION FOR AMENDMENT: RELOCATED THE POSITION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
031500Z9 AND 040300Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040903 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PHOEBE) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z6 --- NEAR 9.9S8 92.9E0
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S8 92.9E0
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z4 --- 10.4S5 92.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 10.9S0 92.4E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 11.4S6 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 10.0S1 92.9E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (PHOEBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 031130Z8 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
45 AND 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
POLEWARD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, NCEP GFS, GFDN, UKMET EGRR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. EGRR, GFS, AND NOGAPS KEEP THE
SYSTEM QUASI-STATIONARY AND THEN TRACK IT EQUATORWARD USING THE
RELATIVELY WEAK 850 MB STEERING FLOW. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE 700 MB STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
040300Z7 AND 041500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050904 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PHOEBE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z4 --- NEAR 9.7S6 93.0E2
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S6 93.0E2
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z7 --- 10.2S3 92.8E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 10.7S8 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 10.9S0 91.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 9.8S7 93.0E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (PHOEBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 032330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 AND 35 KNOTS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED
AND THE CONVECTION STARTED TO DECREASE. MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
POLEWARD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFI-
CATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS,
GFDN, UKMET EGRR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SOLUTION. NONE OF THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL AS IT IS
WEAK AND HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF THE 700 MB STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
041500Z0 AND 050300Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20040904 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (PHOEBE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z7 --- NEAR 10.2S3 92.7E8
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.2S3 92.7E8
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z5 --- 10.5S6 92.1E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z8 --- 10.7S8 91.4E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.3S4 92.6E7.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7 IS 21 FEET.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (PHOEBE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 041130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30, 35, AND 45 KNOTS. DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE REGION OF
CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, RECENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME VERY WEAK DUE ITS LOCATION IN THIS HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF GFDN,
NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. UKMET EGRR
RESOLVES AN EQUATORWARD SOLUTION WHILE GFDN AND NCEP GFS RESOLVE
MORE OF A POLEWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON RECENT
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHILE INCORPORATING A WEAK LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_phoebe_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]