WTXS21 PGTW 20050107 21:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072130Z JAN 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6S9 101.8E0 TO 16.4S1 97.8E4
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM
AGERY AT 071930Z0 INDICATES THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 101.0E2. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0 101.1E3,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S6 101.0E2, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM
SOUTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND
PERSISTED OVER A WELL-DEFINED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IND-
ICATES THAT THE FEATURE IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROP-
ICAL RIDGE AXIS, BOUNDED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH BY MARGINAL
VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE APPROACH OF A TROF FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SHOULD INCREASE POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINI-
MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 082121Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050108 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072121ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080600Z4 --- NEAR 13.9S3 100.2E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 100.2E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 14.3S8 98.9E6
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 14.3S8 97.3E9
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 14.5S0 95.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 15.2S8 93.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM
    ---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 14.0S5 99.9E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
A 072338Z3 QUIKSCAT PASS AND 080341Z6 AMSU PASS DEPICT A SMALL
WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 09S IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. AN
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXISTS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC 09S THAT WILL
INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 12 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 072130Z JAN 2005
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 072130). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050108 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072121ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z7 --- NEAR 14.2S7 99.6E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S7 99.6E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 14.9S4 98.3E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 15.7S3 96.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 16.6S3 94.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 17.7S5 91.5E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.4S9 99.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS COMPACT, WITH DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER, NOT YET ENTRAINING INTO IT. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST, THEN
COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 09S IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
UNDER MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE CONTINUING PRESENCE
OF DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 13
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050109 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 003 CORRECTED
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   090600Z5 --- NEAR 15.0S6 98.7E4
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S6 98.7E4
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 15.6S2 96.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 16.1S8 94.2E5
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 16.9S6 91.0E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 17.9S7 87.7E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 15.2S8 98.2E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR CAUSING IT TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN. TC
09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH-
EAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND
WEAKEN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER MODERATE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ORIGINAL DTG
SHOULD READ 090752Z JAN 05 RATHER THAN 090751Z JAN 05.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050109 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   091800Z8 --- NEAR 15.5S1 98.6E3
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S1 98.6E3
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z7 --- 16.8S5 96.5E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 16.9S6 93.6E8
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 17.5S3 90.4E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z1 --- 18.1S0 86.7E1
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 98.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 09S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT
INTENSITY AND WEAKEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND THE CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DRIER
AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20050110 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (SALLY) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 99.1E9
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 99.1E9
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 17.1S9 96.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z8 --- 18.0S9 93.8E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 98.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (SALLY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 20 KNOTS. DURING
THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, CONVECTION OVER TC 09S HAS DISSIPATED. THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND RECENT UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDERNEATH MODERATE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 07 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.

Document: tropical_cyclone_sally_jtwc_advisories.htm Updated: 17 June 2020 [Australian Severe Weather index] [Copyright Notice] [Email Contacts] [Search This Site] [Privacy Policy]