Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone VIVIENNE : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2004-2005 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone VIVIENNE Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20050206 18:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 061751Z FEB 05// REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051751Z FEB 05// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 /PGTW 051800)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF 16.5S2 117.1E0 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 061430Z4 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.8E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5S1 116.9E7 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S8 116.8E6, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONTINUED CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION, AND ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK POLE- WARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT 060949Z8, A QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS UNDER- NEATH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071800Z6.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20050207 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- NEAR 16.4S1 116.3E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 116.3E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 16.9S6 116.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 17.2S0 116.2E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 17.0S8 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 17.0S8 115.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 116.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL AS SUSTAINED RADIAL OUTFLOW FROM THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 062218Z9 SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PAR- TIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 17S WILL RESIDE IN A VERY WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING SUBTRO- PICAL RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF TC 17S WILL RISE SLOWLY AS NO DECENT OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 11 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061751Z FEB 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 061800) NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z3 AND 080300Z1.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20050207 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z0 --- NEAR 17.4S2 115.1E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S2 115.1E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 17.4S2 114.9E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 17.2S0 114.7E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 17.0S8 114.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 16.7S4 114.3E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z3 POSITION NEAR 17.4S2 115.1E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLIC CONVEC- TION OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL RESIDE IN A VERY WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY TAU 36. TC 17S IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHICH IS HAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z0 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1 AND 081500Z4.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20050208 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z8 --- NEAR 16.0S7 115.8E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 115.8E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 15.7S3 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 15.4S0 116.0E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 15.1S7 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 01 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 15.0S6 115.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM --- REMARKS: 080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 115.8E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIR- ONMENT AND INTENSIFY VERY SLOWLY DUE TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.// ========================================================================= WTXS31 PGTW 20050208 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (VIVIENNE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 15.9S5 115.9E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S5 115.9E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 15.7S3 115.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 15.4S0 116.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 15.9S5 115.9E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17S (VIVIENNE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- WARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARN- ING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. A 081039Z1 SSM/I PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND WEAKEN SLOWLY DUE TO MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 15 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_vivienne_jtwc_advisories.htm
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