Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone BENI : JTWC Advisories |
Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
---> Tropical Cyclone BENI Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 242051ZJAN03// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS OF 12.6S9 162.0E9 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 241730Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.6S9 162.0E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTH OF THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT TROPICAL RAINFALL MEASURING MISSION (TRMM) AND QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 252100Z0.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030125 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242051ZJAN2003// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 250000Z7 --- NEAR 13.0S4 161.4E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 161.4E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 13.1S5 161.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 13.3S7 160.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 13.5S9 160.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 14.0S5 160.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 250300Z0 POSITION NEAR 13.0S4 161.3E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 242330Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CHANNELS BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN SOUTH AFTERWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, WHILE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NGPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z7 IS 10 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 242051ZJAN2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 242100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z3 AND 260300Z1.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030125 15:00z 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z0 --- NEAR 13.3S7 160.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 160.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 13.4S8 159.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 13.4S8 159.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 13.8S2 158.8E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 14.6S1 159.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 251500Z3 POSITION NEAR 13.3S7 160.5E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 251130Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT ONLY SLIGHT INCREASES IN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL, NEAR EQUATORIAL, STEERING RIDGE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z0 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z1 AND 261500Z4.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030126 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z8 --- NEAR 12.2S5 161.0E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 161.0E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z1 --- 12.4S7 161.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 12.5S8 160.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 13.3S7 160.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 14.9S4 161.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 12.2S5 161.0E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY NORTH DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND TURN POLEWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND 270300Z2.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030126 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 261200Z1 --- NEAR 12.7S0 161.2E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S0 161.2E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 13.0S4 160.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 13.5S9 160.4E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 14.3S8 160.5E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 15.4S0 161.1E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 12.8S1 161.1E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHWEST DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH AND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS AND TURN POLEWARD AS A PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF THE NOGAPS, GFDN, JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND 271500Z5.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030127 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 270000Z9 --- NEAR 13.1S5 160.5E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S5 160.5E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z2 --- 13.5S9 160.0E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 14.2S7 159.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 15.3S9 159.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.5S2 161.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 160.4E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTH OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AT 04 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD AS IT TURNS INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), BOM TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z9 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030127 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z2 --- NEAR 13.9S3 161.0E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S3 161.0E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z0 --- 14.6S1 161.3E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 15.5S1 161.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.0S7 162.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 16.4S1 164.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.1S6 161.1E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 05 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE SOUTH AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDS TOWARDS THE EAST AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, FOLLOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, PEAKING AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z2 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030128 03:00z AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z0 --- NEAR 14.7S2 160.6E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7S2 160.6E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z3 --- 15.6S2 160.8E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.6S3 161.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 17.4S2 163.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 18.1S0 164.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 14.9S4 160.6E3. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEAST AT 05 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 272330Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POSSIBLE CLOUD FILLED EYE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA BUILDS TOWARDS THE EAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AFWA MM5, TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z0 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 290300Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (CILLA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030128 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z3 --- NEAR 15.6S2 161.0E8 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 161.0E8 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z1 --- 16.4S1 161.7E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 162.8E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 18.0S9 164.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 18.9S8 165.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 161.2E0. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 04 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS. A DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR TASMANIA IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN BY MID PERIOD AND TRACK POLEWARD BY 48 HOURS. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z4 AND 291500Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030129 03:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 290000Z1 --- NEAR 16.4S1 162.6E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 162.6E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z4 --- 17.3S1 164.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 18.1S0 165.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 19.2S2 166.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 20.7S9 166.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 290300Z4 POSITION NEAR 16.6S3 162.9E8. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 MULTISPECTAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A 21 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN 24 HOURS AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND SHIFT ITS TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND THIS RIDGE. TC 12P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EARLY PERIOD AND REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD WITH A DECLINE IN INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS POLEWARD OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z1 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z7 AND 300300Z6.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030129 15:00z IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291200Z4 --- NEAR 17.8S6 165.0E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8S6 165.0E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z3 --- 19.2S2 166.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 20.3S5 167.3E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 21.8S1 166.8E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 23.4S9 164.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 291500Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 165.5E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 291130Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 AND 140 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD BY 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM TASMANIA AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY 24 HOURS. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS BY MID PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), TCLAPS, TLAPS, AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z4 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z6 AND 301500Z9.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030130 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z3 --- NEAR 19.0S0 167.7E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S0 167.7E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 20.5S7 168.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 22.1S5 168.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 23.6S1 167.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 24.9S5 166.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.4S4 168.0E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 115 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AUSTRALIA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD IN 12 HOURS. A DEEPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD FROM TASMANIA AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY 24 HOURS. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS BY MID PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z9 AND 310300Z7.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030130 15:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z6 --- NEAR 21.0S3 169.1E7 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S3 169.1E7 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z4 --- 22.5S9 169.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 23.6S1 168.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 24.7S3 166.9E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 26.7S5 164.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 169.1E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 90 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BUILDS. AFTERWARDS, A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK IS FORECAST AS A DEEPENING TROUGH IS PROPAGATES EASTWARD, FROM TASMANIA, TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM INFLUENCING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z7 AND 311500Z0.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030131 03:00z MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z4 --- NEAR 22.1S5 168.1E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S5 168.1E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z7 --- 23.2S7 166.4E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 24.0S6 164.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 24.3S9 162.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 24.0S6 159.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 310300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.4S8 167.7E1. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z4 IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z0 AND 010300Z4.// ========================================================================= WTPS31 PGTW 20030131 15:00z SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (BENI) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z7 --- NEAR 23.8S3 165.9E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S3 165.9E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 24.1S7 163.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 311500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.9S4 165.3E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (BENI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 311130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LITTLE REMAINING ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z7 IS 20 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
Document: tropical_cyclone_beni_jtwc_advisories.htm
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