Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone DOVI : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone DOVI Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20030205 07:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050651Z FEB 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 170 NM RADIUS OF 12.4S7 163.6W6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050630Z4 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 162.9W8. THE SYSTEM IS
QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.0S1
162.4W3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S9 163.0W0, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE OVER AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING AT THE
SURFACE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS AND
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. BASED ON
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060700Z3.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030205 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z4 --- NEAR 13.0S4 162.9W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 162.9W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z2 --- 13.9S3 162.5W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.0S6 162.4W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 15.8S4 163.1W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 16.2S9 164.2W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z8 POSITION NEAR 13.2S6 162.8W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051730Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH 24 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THEREAFTER, WHILE INTENSIFYING
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP, CONSISTING OF NGPS,
THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z4 IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050651ZFEB2003 TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS23 PGTW 050700). NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z5 AND 062100Z9.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030206 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z2 --- NEAR 14.4S9 162.5W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S9 162.5W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 15.8S4 162.7W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.8S5 163.8W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.6S4 164.9W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.6S5 166.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z5 POSITION NEAR 14.8S3 162.5W4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF PAGO
PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 060530Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. TC 15P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE NWP, CONSISTING OF NGPS, THE
UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z2 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z9 AND 070900Z6.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030206 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 15.8S4 163.4W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S4 163.4W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 16.6S3 164.1W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.7S5 165.2W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.9S8 166.4W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 20.0S2 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.0S7 163.6W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 75 KNOTS. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS, ALONG THE LOW TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 15P HAS
ORGANIZED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT ABOVE A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS OUTFLOW CHANNELS EXIST BOTH POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OF THE SYSTEM, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON NGPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL,
THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, ALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z5 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030207 09:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 16.9S6 164.3W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S6 164.3W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.9S7 165.5W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 19.0S0 166.8W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.8S8 167.5W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 21.0S3 168.0W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 17.2S0 164.6W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS, ALONG THE
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A
DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE POLEWARD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON NGPS, GFDN, THE UKMET GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL,
THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z3
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z0 AND 080900Z7.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030207 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 17.3S1 165.2W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S1 165.2W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.1S0 166.2W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.0S0 167.1W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.4S6 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.1S5 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 17.5S3 165.5W7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS
DEVELOPED RAPIDLY AND HAS FORMED A SMALL SYMMETRICAL EYE IN THE PAST
12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD
OUTFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY THE MID-PERIOD AS IT PROPAGATES
EASTWARD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE POLEWARD. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE BUT BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030208 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 18.5S4 166.7W0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5S4 166.7W0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.6S6 167.6W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.9S1 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.3S7 168.1W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.9S4 167.5W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 18.8S7 166.9W2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS AN 11
NM SYMMETRICAL EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW REMAINS TO THE EAST AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY THE MID-PERIOD AS IT
PROPAGATES EASTWARD, CAUSING THE TRACK TO BECOME MORE POLEWARD. TC
15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE BUT BEGIN TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND 090900Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030208 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 19.6S6 168.0W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S6 168.0W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.8S0 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.2S6 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.6S1 168.0W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.7S3 167.3W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.9S9 168.1W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS. TC 15P HAS A
14 NM SYMMETRICAL EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES ENHANCED OUTFLOW CONTINUES POLEWARD AND TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 16 HOURS ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, A MORE POLEWARD TRACK IS
FORECAST AS THAT RIDGE WEAKENS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS OUTFLOW CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE BUT BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTERWARDS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 29 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 20.8S0 168.9W4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 168.9W4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 22.0S4 169.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.5S0 169.2W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 25.2S9 169.0W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 26.8S6 169.1W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 169.0W6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS AND
SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK GENERALLY POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
MORE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SST AND INTO UNFAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS,
GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND
OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090600Z5 IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2 AND 100900Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030209 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 22.2S6 169.2W8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 169.2W8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 23.5S0 169.2W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.7S3 169.3W9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.6S3 169.5W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 26.7S5 170.0W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 169.2W8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTH AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST.
AFTERWARDS, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM
WILL INFLUENCE A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, INTO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ENTRAINS DRY AIR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN,
UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
091800Z8 IS 44 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 23.7S2 168.8W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 168.8W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 24.7S3 168.6W1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.7S4 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 26.7S5 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 27.5S4 168.7W2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 168.8W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING DEEP
CONVECTION. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC 15P IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INTO INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTPS31 PGTW 20030210 21:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (DOVI) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 25.3S0 168.0W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 25.3S0 168.0W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 26.2S0 167.9W3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 27.2S1 168.3W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 25.5S2 168.0W5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (DOVI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TC
15P HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, INCLUDING NGPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0
IS 30 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_dovi_jtwc_advisories.htm
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