Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone ESETA : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone ESETA Track Map and Data |
WTPS21 PGTW 20030310 00:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 100021Z MAR 03//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S0 170.2E0 TO 17.8S6
174.4E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT
JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 092330Z7 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 172.4E4. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED VISIBLE, MULTISPECTRAL, ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY, AND A 091848Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION
OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110030Z5.
4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030310 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100021Z MAR 03//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z4 --- NEAR 16.0S7 172.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S7 172.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z2 --- 16.7S4 172.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 17.4S2 172.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 18.0S9 173.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 18.4S3 174.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 172.5E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 30 KNOTS. TC 25P IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE PROPAGATES EASTWARD.
TC 25P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4
IS 13 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 100021Z MAR 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030311 03:00z RTD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 172.2E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 172.2E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z5 --- 19.2S2 172.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.1S3 173.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 20.8S0 174.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.2S5 176.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 172.3E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A 102146Z4
SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN
EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN
A MODERATELY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z8 AND 120300Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030311 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z5 --- NEAR 19.4S4 173.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 173.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z3 --- 20.7S9 174.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 21.3S6 176.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 21.8S1 179.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.1S5 177.2W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 173.3E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
111130Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 55 KNOTS. A
111019Z3 SSM/I PASS DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL. TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS AND THEN EASTWARD
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE THE 48 HOUR
POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET
OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120300Z6 AND 121500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P
(ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030312 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z3 --- NEAR 21.3S6 174.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 174.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z6 --- 22.2S6 177.8E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z4 --- 22.4S8 179.0W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.7S1 175.1W4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 23.8S3 170.9W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.5S8 175.6E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
112330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 55 AND 65 KNOTS.
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FORMATION OF AN IRREGULAR EYE WITHIN THE LAST 3
HOURS. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH 12
HOURS AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW
NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BY 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z9 AND 130300Z7. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART,
USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030313 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.9S2 177.8W3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S2 177.8W3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z7 --- 22.4S8 173.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 23.8S3 168.5W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 27.1S0 162.8W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 39 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 33.0S6 156.8W0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 176.7W1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NUKU ALOFA, TONGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 21
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
122330Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED, VISIBLE, AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 105 KNOTS. TC 25P HAS ENTERED AN AREA
OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION, AND
ALLOWING FOR THE RELATIVELY BRIEF RESURGENCE SEEN OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, WHEREBY TC 25P HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN EASTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND INTERACTS WITH A
DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND, INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 25P IS NOW FORECAST TO COMPLETE THE
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z0 AND
140300Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S
(CRAIG) WARNING (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030313 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z7 --- NEAR 22.9S3 172.5W5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S3 172.5W5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z5 --- 25.1S8 166.5W8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 30.3S6 159.2W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 43 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 37.6S6 153.7W6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.5S0 171.0W9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NUKU ALOFA, TONGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 25
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
131130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 110 AND 125
KNOTS. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH
OF NEW ZEALAND. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS,
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN)
ARE IN REASONABLY CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND
OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
131200Z7 IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z8 AND 141500Z1.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (CRAIG)
WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTPS32 PGTW 20030314 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (ESETA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 24.1S7 166.8W1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 26 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1S7 166.8W1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 28.1S1 160.0W7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 33.3S9 155.4W5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 25.1S8 165.1W3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (ESETA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A RAPID EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED A RAPID WEAKENING TREND, INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF NEW ZEALAND, TRAVELING ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT POLEWARD. TC 25P IS ALMOST EXTRATROPICAL, AND WILL
COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS AND PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 21 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN).
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (ERICA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_eseta_jtwc_advisories.htm
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