Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone GERRY : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone GERRY Track Map and Data |
WTXS21 PGTW 20030208 06:30z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080621ZFEB2003//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 15.3S9 54.3E2 WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 080530Z6 INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 55.6E6. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S7 55.7E7, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S2 55.6E6 APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTION
NEAR A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 200 MB ANALYSIS
INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION,
THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
090630Z8.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030208 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 14.5S0 56.0E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S0 56.0E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 14.7S2 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 14.7S2 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 15.1S7 54.8E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 16.3S0 54.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 14.5S0 55.9E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS REMAINED
QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK IS FORECAST AS A DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY AT JUST
BELOW A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND REMAINS IN A MODERATE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGPS, THE UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 14 FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS
REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 080621Z FEB 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 080630). NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 092100Z2.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030209 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 002 RELOCATED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 13.0S4 55.5E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S4 55.5E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 12.6S9 55.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 12.5S8 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 13.7S1 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 15.0S6 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.9S2 55.4E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS BEEN RELOCATED
FURTHER NORTH BASED UPON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUPPORTING CONSOLIDATION IN THIS
VICINITY. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 090530Z7 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. TC 16S IS
EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE TRACKING POLEWARD AS A
DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE,
NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030209 21:00z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 12.2S5 55.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2S5 55.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 11.8S0 55.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 12.4S7 55.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 13.5S9 55.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.7S2 56.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 12.1S4 55.1E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30
AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS
SOMEWHAT BROAD AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT CONSOLIDATES
BEFORE TRACKING POLEWARD AS A DEEPENING TROUGH WEAKENS A RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED
ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030210 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 11.5S7 54.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.5S7 54.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 11.3S5 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 12.1S4 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 13.4S8 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.8S3 57.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 11.5S7 4.3E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 100600Z7 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING IN EXTENT OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO LOOP TO THE NORTHEAST AS
IT CONSOLIDATES BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS TO
THE SOUTH. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030210 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 11.8S0 54.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S0 54.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 12.4S7 55.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 13.1S5 56.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 14.3S8 57.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 15.8S4 58.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.9S1 54.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. A 101743Z6 SSM/I DEPICTS THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH TC 17S
LOCATED TO THE EAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
AVN AND BETA ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
101800Z0 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z1 AND 112100Z5.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S
WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030211 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 006 RELOCATED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z8 --- NEAR 13.3S7 53.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S7 53.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 14.8S3 54.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 16.2S9 55.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.7S5 56.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.3S3 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
110900Z1 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 53.8E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION BASED ON 110530Z0 VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST THAT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME
INTERACTION WITH TC 17S (HAPE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE, NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AVN AND BETA
ADVECTION MODELS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z8 IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5 AND 120900Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)
(WTXS33 PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030211 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 007
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z1 --- NEAR 15.3S9 53.5E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 53.5E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 17.0S8 54.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 18.3S2 55.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.5S5 56.9E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 20.9S1 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
112100Z5 POSITION NEAR 15.7S3 53.6E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS
BASED ON 111730Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THEN REMAIN STEADY
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE,
NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z1 IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2 AND 122100Z6. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
14S (FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS
(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030212 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 008
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z9 --- NEAR 16.6S3 54.5E4
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S3 54.5E4
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z2 --- 17.9S7 55.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.3S3 57.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 20.8S0 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.2S6 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
120900Z2 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 54.8E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 120530Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. TC 16S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36
HRS, THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z3 IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6 AND 130900Z3. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS FOR TC 14S (FIONA)(WTXS31 PGTW), TC 17S (HAPE)(WTXS33
PGTW), AND TC 18S (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030212 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 009
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z2 --- NEAR 17.9S7 55.7E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 55.7E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z0 --- 19.2S2 57.1E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 20.7S9 58.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.1S5 60.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 23.5S0 62.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
122100Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.2S1 56.0E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 121730Z4 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS, THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z3 AND 132100Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (FIONA)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030213 09:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 010A CORRECTED
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z0 --- NEAR 19.4S4 58.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S4 58.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z3 --- 21.0S3 60.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 22.5S9 61.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 24.0S6 63.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 25.2S9 65.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z3 POSITION NEAR 19.8S8 58.9E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 130530Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY
REVEALS THAT TC 16S HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE AS IT
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS, THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z0 IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z7 AND 140900Z4. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S
(FIONA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNINGS
(WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR
CORRECTION: UPDATED WARNING POSITION TIME REFERENCE IN REMARKS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030213 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 011
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z3 --- NEAR 21.5S8 61.0E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 61.0E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z1 --- 23.8S3 63.1E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 25.7S4 65.3E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 27.5S4 67.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 28.4S4 70.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 61.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 131730Z5 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 102 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS ERODED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF A BANDING EYE
FEATURE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD START TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS
BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5,
AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 131800Z3 IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4 AND 142100Z8.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA)
WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030214 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 012
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 22.6S0 61.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6S0 61.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 24.7S3 63.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.4S2 66.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.9S8 69.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 28.6S6 72.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 23.1S6 62.3E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AROUND THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST. TC 16S SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1 AND 150300Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (ISHA) WARNING (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030214 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 013
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 24.6S2 63.2E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S2 63.2E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 26.2S0 64.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.3S2 66.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 27.8S7 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 27.5S4 69.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 25.0S7 63.6E5.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAURITIUS IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALED AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DECOUPLED
APPROXIMATELY 30 NM NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARDS
A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CAUSED BY A TRANSIENT MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK IN. AS A RESULT, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 16S SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REMAINS DECOUPLED UNDER UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS EXCEPT FOR UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE
IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. EGRR BUILDS THE RIDGE IN TO THE
SOUTH SOONER AND AS A RESULT KEEPS THE SYSTEM NEARLY STATIONARY. THE
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR),
AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9 AND
151500Z2. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) WARNINGS (WTXS33
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S
(ISHA) WARNINGS (WTXS34 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030215 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 014
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 26.9S7 65.4E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 26.9S7 65.4E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 27.8S7 67.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 28.7S7 68.4E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 29.1S2 70.3E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 27.1S0 65.8E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY) HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF CONVECTION. A WEAK COLD FRONT
FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED AND EXTENDS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. A MORE WELL DEFINED AREA OF CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE A MODERATE WARM FRONT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION EVIDENT
IN THE MODEL FIELDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND AN ASSOCIATED GRADIENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTIUES TO WEAKEN AND
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS, THEN
DIVERGE DEPENDING ON THE MAINTAINED STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE
MODELS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND THE NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODEL. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z2 AND 160300Z0. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW 142100) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. ALTERNATE
JTWC SENDS.//
=========================================================================
WTXS32 PGTW 20030215 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GERRY) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 27.8S7 66.8E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 27.8S7 66.8E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 28.3S3 67.8E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 27.9S8 67.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 151130Z1 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING
A BROAD AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN EXPOSED BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 16 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE ALTERNATE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(FLENUMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HAPE) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING (WTXS33 PGTW). ALTERNATE JTWC SENDS.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_gerry_jtwc_advisories.htm
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