Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone JAPHET : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
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WTXS31 PGTW 20030226 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252051ZFEB2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z8 --- NEAR 22.5S9 42.2E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 42.2E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z1 --- 22.5S9 41.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 22.6S0 40.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 23.1S6 39.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 23.8S3 38.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z1 POSITION NEAR 22.5S9 41.9E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM WEST OF
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 252330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND PROVIDE THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN START TO TURN POLEWARD BEHIND THE PASSING
RIDGE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF
NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, HAVE IMPROVED IN THEIR
INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND NOW SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DYNAMIC AIDS AND THE MEDIUM BETA
ADVECTION MODEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z8 IS 14
FEET. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
252051ZFEB2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW
252100). NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z4 AND 270300Z2.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030226 15:00z
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z1 --- NEAR 21.5S8 39.6E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.5S8 39.6E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z9 --- 21.1S4 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 21.2S5 37.0E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 21.6S9 36.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 22.2S6 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z4 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 39.2E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST OF
MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 261130Z3 VISIBLE AND
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS
CONSOLIDATED NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 19S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN START TO TURN
POLEWARD BEHIND THE PASSING RIDGE. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE WHILE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z1 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z2 AND
271500Z5. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030227 03:00z COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 003A
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z9 --- NEAR 21.3S6 39.1E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3S6 39.1E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z2 --- 21.3S6 38.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 21.6S9 37.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 22.0S4 36.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 21.8S1 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
270300Z2 POSITION NEAR 21.3S6 38.8E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S
(JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 262330Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN EQUATORWARD AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET GLOBAL
(EGRR) AND NCEP GFS, ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
270000Z9 IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z5 AND 280300Z3.
JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED WEST OF MOZAMBIQUE TO EAST OF
MOZAMBIQUE IN REMARKS.
RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030227 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z2 --- NEAR 22.0S4 38.8E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S4 38.8E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z0 --- 22.5S9 38.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 23.1S6 37.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 23.1S6 36.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 22.2S6 35.1E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
271500Z5 POSITION NEAR 22.1S5 38.7E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM
EAST OF THE EAST COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING
POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEAR TERM TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, A WESTWARD BECOMING
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM PROPAGATES EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE BEGINNING TO BE ADVERSELY
AFFECTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTIONS AFTER 36 HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS
THEN FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD DUE TO LANDFALL OVER
MOZAMBIQUE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET
SPECTRAL (EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF
ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z2 IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z3 AND 281500Z6.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030228 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z0 --- NEAR 23.0S5 37.9E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0S5 37.9E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z3 --- 23.6S1 37.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 24.2S8 36.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 24.1S7 36.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 23.7S2 36.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z3 POSITION NEAR 23.2S7 37.8E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 128 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
272330Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. TC 19S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY IN THE
WEAKNESS UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AFRICA PROPAGATES
EASTWARD AND PUSHES TC 19C EQUATORWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS
EQUATORWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ENCOUNTERS SOME
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS,
GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL (EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE
AND A BLEND OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z0 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281500Z6 AND 010300Z4.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030228 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z3 --- NEAR 23.3S8 37.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S8 37.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z1 --- 23.7S2 37.4E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 24.1S7 37.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 23.8S3 36.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 23.2S7 36.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z6 POSITION NEAR 23.4S9 37.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
281130Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS.
TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARDS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
AFTERWARDS, TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS FAVORABLE UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS EQUATORWARD NEAR THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE BEGINNING TO DIVERGE IN
TRACK SOLUTION FOR 19S. NOGAPS TRACKS THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWARD TRACK AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD, GFDN AND AVN TAKE A MUCH
SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER THE EARLY PERIOD AND EGRR CONTINUES TO
TRACK THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF THE RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, AS WELL AS IN THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH,
APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FIELDS ACCOUNTING
FOR THE DISPARATE TRACKS. IN ALL CASES THE TRACK SPEED REMAINS SLOW
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MEANING THE SPATIAL DISTANCE BETWEEN
MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAINS LOW. IN CONSEQUENCE, POTENTIAL FOR
MODIFICATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS IS RELATIVELY
HIGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NOGAPS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z3 IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z4 AND
011500Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S (GRAHAM) WARNINGS (WTXS32
PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030301 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z1 --- NEAR 23.9S4 37.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.9S4 37.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z4 --- 24.1S7 37.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 24.3S9 37.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 24.6S2 37.6E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 24.5S1 37.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 24.0S6 37.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 282330Z8 INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER SOUTH AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF TC 19S. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POLEWARD MOVEMENT
AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. AFTERWARDS, TC 19S SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY
WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE RIDGE. TC 19S SHOULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
COOLER AIR IMPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE RIDGE.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL
(EGRR), AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) HAVE HAD POOR FORECAST
PERSISTENCE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TWO
CLUSTERS. FIRST, GFDN AND EGRR FORECAST THE BUILDING RIDGE TO
STRENGTHEN AND AS A RESULT, TRACK TC 19 WESTWARD ON SHORE WITHIN 48
HOURS. AVN AND NOGAPS HOWEVER, LOOP AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
NORTHEASTWARD. RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS FUTURE
STEERING IS GUIDED BY THE DEEP, OVERALL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE, OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE FULL BETA ADVECTION MODEL.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS ARE AT 011500Z7 AND 020300Z5. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 20S
(GRAHAM) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED
BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030301 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 23.7S2 37.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S2 37.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 23.6S1 37.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 23.0S5 37.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 22.3S7 36.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 21.6S9 35.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 23.7S2 37.6E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONTINENT, AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR BUILDS AS WELL. TC 19S IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE SHORT TERM, THEN BEGIN
TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. TC 19S SHOULD
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW WHILE NEARLY STATIONARY,
THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES CONFINED EQUATORWARD. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5 AND NCEP
AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET SPECTRAL MODEL (EGRR) TAKING TC 19S ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
011200Z4 IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5 AND 021500Z8.
RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030302 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 23.1S6 37.0E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S6 37.0E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 22.7S1 36.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 22.3S7 35.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 22.0S4 34.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 21.6S9 33.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 23.0S5 36.9E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. THE MID-LEVEL
HAS BUILT IN OVER THE SOUTH AFRICAN CONTINENT AND IS EXPECTED TO
GUIDE TC 19S NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 19S IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST
AS THE RESULT OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND CONTINUED WEAK UPPER LEVEL
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN,
AFWA MM5 AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z2 IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 021500Z8 AND 030300Z6. RELEASED BY CAPT
LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030302 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z5 --- NEAR 22.2S6 35.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.2S6 35.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 21.6S9 34.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 21.3S6 33.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.9S1 32.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.5S7 31.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.0S4 35.5E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
EAST OF THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KNOTS. THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24
HOURS. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET
(EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030300Z6 AND 031500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT
WINGEART, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030303 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z3 --- NEAR 21.2S5 34.8E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S5 34.8E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 20.8S0 33.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.6S8 32.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.4S6 31.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 34.5E2.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET) MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY
021930Z5 JUST SOUTH OF VILANCULOS, MOZAMBIQUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 105 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AT VILANCULOS, 3 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL, REPORTED 40 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 57 KNOTS. TC 19S HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND
022330Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING
NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. NEXT WARNINGS ARE AT 031500Z9 AND
040300Z7. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030303 15:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (JAPHET) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 20.8S0 33.6E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 33.6E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 20.5S7 32.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 20.4S6 31.3E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.7S9 33.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (JAPHET), LOCATED OVER LAND, APPROXIMATELY
130 NM NORTHWEST OF VILANCULOS, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
SYNOPTIC DATA AND 031130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH 24 HOURS. TC 19S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
INCLUDING NOGAPS, UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), AFWA MM5, AND NCEP AVIATION
(AVN) ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
(NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES. RELEASED BY LT WINGEART, USN.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_japhet_jtwc_advisories.htm
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