Updated: 17 June 2020
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| Tropical Cyclones
[Index] | Tropical Cyclone MANOU : JTWC Advisories |
| Season 2002-2003 Summaries (Operational Data): [AU] [SIO] [SPAC] [SH] | |
| ---> Tropical Cyclone MANOU Track Map and Data |
WTXS22 PGTW 20030503 04:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 030351Z MAY 03//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021421Z MAY 03//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 021430)//
RMKS/
1. IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
2. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S4 65.1E2 TO 16.4S1 61.8E5
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
030000Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3
64.5E5. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
3. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.0S2
64.3E3 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S3 64.5E5, APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD OVER A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGER
PASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION. 200 MB
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE REGION REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
4. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040400Z8.
5. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 6.4S0 54.9E8.
6. RELEASED BY LT SMITH, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030503 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030351ZMAY2003//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z6 --- NEAR 13.4S8 63.7E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S8 63.7E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 14.7S2 62.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.1S8 61.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.2S0 60.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 18.0S9 58.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
031500Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.7S1 63.5E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND IS APPROXIMATELY 530
NM NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. TC 28S HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 09
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
031130Z8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
BANDS SURROUND AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A SECOND
CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST IS ALSO DEVELOPING
BUT DOES NOT MEET WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ARE
INDUCING A POLEWARD MOTION. AVAILABLE NWP (UKMET, NOGAPS, AND GFS)
IS HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING TC 28S AT THIS TIME. TC 28S IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z6 IS 13 FEET.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 030351Z
MAY 03 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 030400). NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040300Z7 AND 041500Z0.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030504 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z4 --- NEAR 15.3S9 61.5E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S9 61.5E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 16.2S9 59.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.4S1 57.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.1S8 55.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 15.6S2 54.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.5S1 61.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHEAST OF
MAURITIUS. TC 28S HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 032330Z1 ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A SPIRAL BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A
SECOND CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 355 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF TC
28S DOES NOT MEET WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND CIRCULATION ARE INDUCING A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK. AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH TRANSLATE EASTWARD, TC 28S WILL ALTER
TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF
UKMET (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, HOWEVER THERE IS AN EQUATORWARD
BIAS DUE TO DIFFICULTIES RESOLVING THE TWO CIRCULATIONS. OUR
FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS WITH A POLEWARD
BIAS TO ACCOUNT FOR INTERACTION WITH THE SECOND CIRCULATION. TC 28S
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z4 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z0 AND 050300Z8.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030504 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z7 --- NEAR 15.6S2 60.7E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S2 60.7E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 16.3S0 59.0E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.5S2 57.2E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.4S1 55.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 15.9S5 53.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z0 POSITION NEAR 15.8S4 60.3E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 041130Z9 VISIBLE
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. EARLIER
INDICATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEAR TO HAVE
LESSENED IN THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO
THE NORTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. A SECOND CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH
OF TC 28S IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT DRAWS CLOSER. A LOW TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
BUILDS WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BUT MAY STILL HOLD A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD BIAS. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS
A BLEND OF AVAILABLE AIDS WHICH FAVORS THE MOST POLEWARD SOLUTION OF
GFDN. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SLOWLY IN A MARGINAL VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z7
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z8 AND 051500Z1.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030505 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z5 --- NEAR 16.4S1 58.9E2
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S1 58.9E2
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 16.7S4 57.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 17.1S9 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.1S9 53.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.7S4 51.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
050300Z8 POSITION NEAR 16.5S2 58.5E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
042330Z2 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55
KNOTS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF
DEEP CONVECTION. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEGUN
TO INFLUENCE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND APPEARS TO BE THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
WESTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST BUILDS EASTWARD.
THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, BUT MAY STILL HOLD
A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD BIAS. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF
PERSISTENCE AND ALL THE AVAILABLE AIDS. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP SLOWLY IN A MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z5 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z1 AND 060300Z9.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030505 15:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z8 --- NEAR 16.2S9 58.4E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S9 58.4E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 16.3S0 56.7E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 16.5S2 54.6E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 16.2S9 52.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 15.9S5 50.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z1 POSITION NEAR 16.2S9 58.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 051130Z0
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 55 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC
28S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS SHEARED AWAY FROM THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. OUR
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE AIDS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z8 IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z9 AND 061500Z2. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030506 03:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z6 --- NEAR 16.8S5 56.9E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S5 56.9E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 17.3S1 55.5E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 17.4S2 53.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z0 --- 17.2S0 52.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z8 --- 16.9S6 50.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z9 POSITION NEAR 16.9S6 56.5E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND
SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND LIES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A TROUGH PASSES
POLEWARD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARDS, TC 28S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 28S
IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER
WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION, GFDN, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT. THE AVIATION MODEL HAS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE
PASSING TROUGH AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF
MADAGASCAR WHILE THE OTHER AIDS TRACK THE SYSTEM ONTO MADAGASCAR.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE
AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 06000Z6 IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 061500Z2 AND 070300Z0.
RELEASED BY CAPT LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030506 21:00z AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 007A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z5 --- NEAR 17.9S7 54.4E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S7 54.4E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z3 --- 17.9S7 52.8E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 17.7S5 51.3E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 17.6S4 50.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 17.6S4 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
062100Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 54.0E9.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061730Z7
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35
KNOTS AND 40 KNOT SYNOPTIC REPORTS. JUSTIFCAITON FOR AMENDMENT: TC
28S HAS REINTENSIFIED TO WARNING CRITERIA AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT WARNING CRITERIA UNTIL IT TRACKS ON TO LAND ON MADAGASCAR'S
EASTERN COAST. TC 28S HAD PREVIOUSLY WEAKENED WITH ITS CONVECTION
DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER,
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
REINTENSIFIED WITH DEEP CONVECTION REORGANIZING OVER THE LLCC.
ANALYSIS OF 200 MB SHOWS THAT 28S EXISTS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK TO MODERATE
VERTICAL SHEAR. TC 28S IS NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY
BUT TO REMAIN AT WARNING CRITERIA AND TRACK WESTWARD TO MADAGASCAR
AND WEAKEN OVER LAND. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6 AND 072100Z0. RELEASED BY CAPT
LEEJOICE, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030507 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z3 --- NEAR 18.3S2 52.4E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S2 52.4E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z6 --- 18.4S3 51.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.6S5 50.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.3S3 48.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.9S9 47.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
070900Z6 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 52.1E8.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 070530Z5
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TC 28S HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 28S HAS POINT SOURCE
OUTFLOW ABOVE THE SYSTEM, AND IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 28S MAY INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL PRIOR TO 36 HOURS, AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE SOMEWHAT DISPARATE WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK. NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACK THE SYSTEM WESTWARD, UKMET
(EGRR) DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM OVER WATER VERY NEAR THE MADAGASCAR
COAST, AND THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL (AVN) TURNS THE SYSTEM MORE
SHARPLY POLEWARD, OFF THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR. THIS FORECAST
BASED ON PERSISTENCE, AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS BIASED
TOWARD A MIGRATORY RIDGE PASSING EASTWARD FAR SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z3 AND 080900Z7. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030507 21:00z
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z6 --- NEAR 18.7S6 51.3E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S6 51.3E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z4 --- 18.8S7 50.3E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.2S2 49.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 19.6S6 48.9E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 20.3S5 48.0E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 18.7S6 51.0E6.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
WEST NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERYINDICATES THAT TC 28S CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY AND HAS NOW MOVED MORE WESTWARD IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME STEADILY MORE POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
THAT TC 28S HAS GOOD OUTFLOW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST AND IS
IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 28S SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS, AND
IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE
SOMEWHAT DISPARATE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK. NOGAPS AND GFDN CONTINUE
TO TRACK THE SYSTEM OVER LAND, UKMET (EGRR) AND AVN TRACK THE SYSTEM
OVER WATER VERY NEAR THE MADAGASCAR COAST. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE, AND A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z6 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
080900Z7 AND 082100Z1.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030508 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z4 --- NEAR 19.1S1 49.7E0
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S1 49.7E0
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z7 --- 19.9S9 48.6E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.7S9 48.3E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.3S6 48.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 22.1S5 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM
---
REMARKS:
080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 49.4E7.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM
FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
080530Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28S HAS FORMED A SMALL BANDING
EYE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR. TC 28S SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO
LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVER LAND AS IT TRACKS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST BEFORE EXITING AND
REINTENSIFYING IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR
ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM ON LAND AFTER 24 HOURS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1 AND
090900Z8. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030508 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z7 --- NEAR 19.3S3 49.2E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S3 49.2E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z5 --- 20.0S2 48.7E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 21.1S4 48.4E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 22.5S9 49.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 23.6S1 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
---
REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 19.5S5 49.1E4.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90
KNOTS. INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A 24 NM DIAMETER EYE
CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND HAS BECOME MORE IRREGULAR. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO A MORE POLEWARD
TRACK TO THE SOUTH. A TRANSITORY ANTICYCLONE SOUTHWEST OF TC 28S
WILL MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF TC
28S AND MERGE. THIS MERGING OF THE TWO ANTICYCLONES WILL CREATE A
POLEWARD STEERING ENVIRONMENT AT THE SAME TIME AS TC 28S IS MAKING
LANDFALL ON MADAGASCAR. TC 28S SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE NEXT 6 TO
12 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTH ALONG THE COAST BEFORE
EXITING IN THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AND THEN SLOWLY REINTENSIFIES. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, NCEP
AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. OUR FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8 AND 92100Z2.
RELEASED BY LT BRYANT, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030509 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z5 --- NEAR 19.5S5 49.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5S5 49.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z8 --- 20.2S4 48.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 21.1S4 49.1E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 21.6S9 49.7E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 22.2S6 51.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090900Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.7S7 48.9E1.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 5 NM
FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
090530Z7 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 AND 90
KNOTS. TC 28S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 28S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SKIMS THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR AND THEN
REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CLEARS THE COASTLINE BEFORE ENTERING A
REGION OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA
MM5, NCEP AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS
CONTINUING TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING OVER LAND.
OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z5 IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
092100Z2 AND 100900Z0. RELEASED BY CAPT KENDALL, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030509 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z8 --- NEAR 20.0S2 49.0E3
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0S2 49.0E3
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z7 --- 20.5S7 49.0E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 21.3S6 49.5E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 21.9S2 50.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 22.5S9 52.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
092100Z2 POSITION NEAR 20.1S3 49.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM
FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT
02 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
091730Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS AND 65 KNOTS.
TC 28S HAS BEGUN TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 28S
WILL BEGIN TO SPEED UP AND THEN RECURVE EASTWARD TOWARDS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. TC 28S WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AS IT SKIRTS THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. TC 28S WILL
REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT EXITS THE COASTLINE AND MOVES BACK OVER
THE OPEN SEA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD SO INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, AFWA MM5, NCEP
AVIATION, AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NOGAPS CONTINUES TO
FORECAST THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. GFDN AND EGGR KEEP THE SYSTEM
QUASISTATIONARY WHILE NCEP FORECASTS RECURVES THE SYSTEM TO THE
EAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY
EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE NCEP
AVIATION SOLUTION AT THE MID TO LATE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
100900Z0 AND 102100Z4. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030510 09:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z7 --- NEAR 20.8S0 48.9E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S0 48.9E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z0 --- 23.0S5 49.3E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 25.5S2 50.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z1 --- 26.3S1 52.4E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z9 --- 26.2S0 54.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 21.4S7 49.0E3.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 25 NM FROM
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 55 KNOTS. TC 28S
CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 28S IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND AN EQUATORWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALL MODELS
HAVE TROUBLE INITIALIZING ON THE SYSTEM, BUT THEY ALL SHOW A GENERAL
SOUTH THEN SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND FIELD ANALYSIS OF NOGAPS,
GFS, AND GFDN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4 AND 110900Z1. RELEASED BY CAPT
VILPORS, USAF.//
=========================================================================
WTXS31 PGTW 20030510 21:00z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY PORT LOUIS
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28S (MANOU) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z0 --- NEAR 22.5S9 48.7E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S9 48.7E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z8 --- 23.3S8 49.2E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
102100Z4 POSITION NEAR 22.7S1 48.8E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28S (MANOU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM FROM
THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101730Z2
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. TC 28S
CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR WHILE TRACKING SOUTHWARD VERY CLOSE TO
THE MADAGASCAR EAST COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ALMOST ALL DEEP
CONVECTION, AND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS NOW
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE INITIALIZING
THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IS BASED ON
PERSISTENCE AND ANALYSIS OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, AND UKMET EGRR
FIELDS SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE BEHIND A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z0 IS 10
FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. RELEASED BY LT INGRAM, USN.//
Tropical cyclone tracks developed by Michael Bath using operational warnings and advisories.
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Document: tropical_cyclone_manou_jtwc_advisories.htm
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